DeFi Kingdoms Whale Watch and Key Analytics Report #6 — September 29, 2021
I am not affiliated with the DefiKingdom team and nothing in this report is intended to be financial advice and is strictly for informational purposes.
Hi DFK Fam -
Here is whale watch and key analytics report number 6. Snapshot was taken around 20:15 MST on 9/29/21.
I removed the portion of the chart on how the top 50 voted as there’s nothing really new to report there, but would highlight again that the top wallets are quite diversified in how they vote (and whether they vote at all).
Enjoy and let me know if there’s other info you think would be helpful and I’ll figure out a way to track it in the processes I run to generate the numbers. Once we hit 6 weeks or 8 weeks, I’ll probably do a report that shows month to month changes to get a bigger picture view.
-Discord: Samichpunch#2518
-Twitter: @Samichpunch
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WHAT IS THIS? This report focuses largely on xJewel wallets as wallets participating in the LP pools may not always be closely associated with the adoption of the game and are a bit outside the scope of this report — not to mention being nearly impossible to track without extensive time (which I don’t have). That being said, where there is big movement in the top 50, I am doing my best to track and see where that money is going (or coming from), including whether the funds come from or go to, among other sources, the Gardens. Yes, I realize that many of the top wallets also have giant bags in the gardens, but from a time perspective would be nearly impossible for me to track.
Time since last report: ~3.5 Days
TLDR:
Because this changes in the chart cover 3.5 days, there’s a lot more movement than in prior posts and I’ll keep it to the highlights. 6 Wallets exited the top 50 since the last report, all of which were in the latter 20 (ranging in the 22k-12k xJewel). Moby continues to harvest garden rewards and stake into the bank but it looks like they also started adding more into the LP pools again. Top 10 continue to accumulate more with the exception of one that decreased by ~18%, but still remains at the 8th spot.
Top 50 as a % of total xJewel went down about 3.5% leaving top 50 with less than 50% of the total vote power at 48.53%. Moby’s vote power went from 8.1% vote power to 7.45% since the last report.
The median xJewel wallet size remained the same for the most part, meaning the increase of ~240 xJewel wallets since last report was pretty much evenly split between large and smaller wallets. I think as we see more and more smaller wallets, that will be an indication of more mass adoption (we probably won’t see thousands of thousands of people aping in thousands of Jewel, but its once we start to see tens of thousands putting in smaller amounts that we will see adoption of the game really take off IMO.
xJewel Analytics
Circulating supply went up quite a bit (12.24% over the past 3.5 days). While there’s no way to say exactly why, it’s likely the function of a lot of wallets trying to cash in on the upcoming Hero minting fees, 10% of which will go to holders of xJewel. Top 50 voting power dipped below the 50% mark. When you couple this with the fact that circulating xJewel went up 12% over the past 3.5 days, this means there was a good amount of that increase happening outside of the top 50.
Increase in xJewel Wallets per day was a little shy of 100, which is double of the ~45 per day we had been seeing on the previous report, another great sign of more adoption.
Bank Ratio Analytics
The 0.27% change is actually an average daily change over the past 3.5 days since the last report. Which is less than it was at the last report (0.29%) so this rate has slowly been going down over the past couple weeks. We’ll obviously see a huge dip today with the launch of hero’s and 10% of the mint cost going to xJewel holders, but we also may see an increase as we see more in game traffic with the trading of heroes and other assets in game. Assuming a 0.27% average increase per day to the ratio, you’d be looking at a 99.17% increase over the year (or, effectively doubling your money).
Also added a metric here to show you how much the ratio has increased on average since the launch of the project, which means if you had put Jewel in the bank on Day 1, your Jewel balance would have increased by about 1.00% per day since (~365% APR using very simplified math). Note that these annual estimates continue to go down every report, this is a reflection of the fact that the % increase to the ratio was quite a bit higher during the initial weeks of the project.
I’ll keep an eye on how this changes as we move into Phase 2 and the launch of Hero NFTs.
Jewel Analytics
Jewel circulating continues to increase at the same pace likely from claimed garden rewards, payments to the dev team, etc. Top 50 as a % of that total remained relative stagnant, meaning their economic position remained roughly the same as 3.5 days ago.
Adoption Analytics Work in Progress
Median wallet size didn’t really change. However, nearly 240 xJewel wallets were added since last report. This means there were both big and small wallets joining the fray. Any increase in wallets is a good sign, and as we move into Phase 2 with heroes there will be other metrics helpful to track on the NFT front that I hope to bake into this section of the report to try and monitor adoption metrics.
Top Wallet Movement
Wallet Names: I’ve decided to move away from naming various wallets, although I am getting a good sense of which ones are dev wallets and otherwise and will only refer to the top wallet as Moby. Otherwise I will refer to all other wallets as “Wallet xyz” or “Prior Wallet abc”.
Moby increased holdings by 4.35%. Again, don’t be deceived by only 4.35%, which was an increase of nearly 12,000 xJewel and is just as much as Wallet 13’s increase of 38%. No sales from Moby from what I can tell yet, however with some of their claimed rewards over the past few days it looks like they threw more into the gardens. It also looks like Moby is putting some funds into Freyala (XYA).
Top 50 xJewel holdings in aggregate increased by 4.84%, which is quite different than the decrease in their holdings from the last report. The whales continue to accumulate more.
Top 10 stayed in their same positions for the most part with the exception of Wallet 9 being new to the crowd. Appears as though Wallet 9 had a giant JEWEL-XYA LP bag and unpaired it, staking the Jewel into the bank and transferring the XYA out to another wallet (which appears to be a staking contract).
We had 12 of the top 50 that did nothing over the past 3 days and their only increases were from the Bank Ratio increase.
6 Wallets exited the top 50, all of which were in the bottom 20 (i.e. wallets 30–50).
Big Plays
Moby — for this report, nothing additional to add to the above. Will be interesting to see how many heroes they end up with.
Falling out of the top 50:
In the interest of time I’ll skip over the bottom 5 that exited the top 50 and just note that the Prior Wallet 32 exited because they cashed out about 17,000 Jewel for ONE on the 27th of September and appear to be sitting on it for the time being. Won’t be surprised to see them jump back in.
Welcome to the Club:
Of the 6 new wallets joining the top 50, two of them are pretty big hitters, Wallet 9 and Wallet 17. Let’s take a quick look at where their funds were coming from to purchase their Jewel.
- Wallet 9: already covered a bit above, but the biggest portion of their increase came from unpairing their JEWEL-XYA LP and staking the Jewel in the Bank (and apparently staking the XYA in a different contract).
- Wallet 17: looks like Wallet 17’s meteoric rise into the top 20 comes from unpairing their JEWEL-ONE LP, selling their ONE for more JEWEL and staking it all in the bank.
We’ll probably see some very big LP players move into the game as we move into Phase 2. I know that many have already said you can’t discount the LP participants and I 100% agree, there is just no effective way to monitor LP participation as it relates to the game aspect of DeFi Kingdoms.
Other Big Increases
Wallet 8 — decreased by nearly 19%. Simply looks like they were taking some profits and selling Jewel for ONE and transferring it out.
Wallet 18 — had more transactions than I could even capture in this snapshot (I can only see the past 100) and they had more than that during the past 2 days. They went from 25k xJewel to 32k.
Wallet 13 — The increase here comes from a mix of claiming rewards and pay/bounties. This must be a dev wallet.
Wallet 14 — This person claimed a whopping 35K jewel from Garden rewards and staked it in the bank. They also put another ~22k into gardens via JEWEL/ONE LP.
Wallet 16 — This person claimed 22k jewel from the Gardens and is just sitting on it. Since nobody smart would just sit on 22k Jewel without staking it in the bank (fee-less) they must just be waiting to use it for Gen0 Heroes later today.
I’ll need to skip the rest, but they are bottom 25 of the top 50 so while their % are larger, they are numerically less significant. My gut tells me its a lot more garden reward claiming and these whales wanting to have Jewel to spend on Gen0 heroes or have more in the bank to capture some of the 10% of minting costs.
Other Big Decreases
Wallet 28 — Decrease of 45%, or 22k xJewel. This is wallet Sven on some of my prior reports and frankly their wallet transaction history is a total cluster, but from what I can tell they took some profits that left the ecosystem. Au revoir mon ami.
Wallet 34 — This movement looks to be the result of a big chunk of claimed garden rewards, followed with some profit taking.
Prior Whale Watch Reports
Whale Watch Report #1 — September 21, 2021
Whale Watch Report #2 — September 22, 2021
Whale Watch Report #3 — September 23, 2021
Whale Watch Report #4 — September 24, 2021
Whale Watch Report #5 — September 26, 2021 (Governance Highlight on Voting Patterns of Top 50 Wallets)
What is DefiKingdoms
DeFi Kingdoms is a game, DEX, liquidity pool opportunity, market of rare utility driven NFTs, and it all plays out in the nostalgic form of fantasy pixel art.
