What’s Behind Soccer’s Growth in the US
A couple months ago I read M.G. Siegler’s prediction on soccer becoming the most popular sport in the US by 2050. I found myself nodding and grinning as I read. Siegler makes a number of excellent points, including a well-constructed and compelling argument that we are in the middle of a confluence of events which will accelerate that growth in popularity. I couldn’t agree more with this sentiment.
Over the last few years, I have gone from casual fan to devoted supporter to spending every day working on continuously getting smarter about soccer’s rise. Understanding how the sport can grow is always in the background as we tackle product/growth conversations within our company, Togga. I believe soccer will become the most popular sport in the United States in the not too distant future, and I’m not the only one.
I have been a fan of soccer since college in 2006, coming back from class to experience the thrill of Champions League with my roommates. My team is Arsenal. Dad turned me onto the Gunners with their style of play and the legend that is Thierry Henry. I loved watching the unselfishness in how Cesc Fabregas played the game. But my entire soccer experience was based on the exposure I had through television; my fandom shaped by this narrow experience, because the coverage was limited.
Today, coverage is not limited. NBC finally cracked the code on how to present these layered, fascinating storylines upon which global soccer is built. NBC saw an emerging, engaged audience and have done an incredible job broadcasting every Premier League game, including exceptional streaming options. Last season they recorded 613 million streamed minutes of Live Premier League matches, more than doubling the previous season. This built on record-setting Women’s World Cup viewership in the United States and Canada (broadcast very well by Fox). This rapid growth is the reason NBC paid close to a billion dollars for the broadcast rights over the next 6 years.
Radio was baseball’s medium, the rise of cable television mirrored the rise of American football, now the combination of social and mobile have become soccer’s medium.
With fans all over the world able to communicate with each other so easily, it is now possible for Americans to gain access to a complex global soccer landscape that was previously impossible to navigate. And that means fans can engage in all aspects of the game — international tournaments, cup competitions, transfer dealings and supporter culture. They can buy into all of the drama which makes soccer the world’s leading sport, watch league, cup and European play and feel a part of the action like never before.
Tucked away in the comments of Siegler’s thesis was a true gem from one reader:
“I also have a pet theory that I really have no data for, but it’s based around the Flynn Effect. Generation over generation, humans are getting smarter and capable of more abstract thinking. This might explain why millennials are eating up shows with multifaceted plotlines like Game of Thrones. They want more complex entertainment. And if that’s true, then soccer is poised to be the Game of Thrones of sports.”
Viewing Flynn Effect as the bottom of the soccer funnel (i.e. retained soccer fans), there is the perfect storm at the top of the funnel pushing fans to become more engaged in following the real life drama unfold. Parents who grew up playing soccer can finally watch the matches without some premium sports package. Those parents created a second generation of soccer players as their kids joined youth soccer leagues. Those same kids still cannot get enough of EA Sports’ juggernaut FIFA series, engaging in online play and watching influencer YouTube channels. Parents and kids wake up and watch the best players in the world on NBC, while fans of all ages stay glued to their mobile phones, where soccer plotlines are pushed, unfiltered, throughout the week on varying social mediums.
Millenials mark the beginning of a second generation of American soccer fans. As this generation begins to start their own families in the coming decade, they will be creating a third generation of soccer fans in the United States. This is the generation that will provide critical mass for the inevitable soccer revolution. As MG Siegler noted, soccer is now the second most popular sport among 12–24 year olds and is dominant among Hispanics. The landscape has finally shifted. This is the start of critical mass. Get excited — there’s no other drama whether fiction or non that comes close!
