Coronavirus (COVID-19) Facts vs. Fiction — One Seattle Family’s Story
(3/21 Update —Please see this essential read by @DrTomFrieden former CDC Director. He lays out factually what we know, and must do.
(3/18 Update — Added latest reports, also be sure to check out Bill Gates’ “Ask me Anything” today on Reddit.
(3/15 Update — This post has been getting a lot of traffic, thanks to everyone for the well-wishes and we are doing fine. I am updating with resources daily)
About ten days ago, we decided as a family to self-isolate three generations under one roof here in the Seattle area. You see, we have a significantly at-risk family member (Grandma), a recent widow with no other family in the area. She is tough and a cancer survivor, but with diminished lung capacity. She was also scared watching the news so I sought to reassure her.
I am a skeptic by nature. A tech engineer by trade, I’m trained to seek out facts and data. So I set out to become as informed as I could on the topic. Over the past week, I’ve come across a significant amount of bias, racism, provincialism, misinformation, and age-ism (particularly among younger less affected individuals who don’t think this is a big deal). I’m sure I have friends who think we’re over-reacting. It doesn’t matter anymore. Social distancing has been proven to save lives.
Things have also come up that can’t be planned for, such as child custodial arrangements. With an at-risk family member living with us, we have to use full social distancing measures such as working from home and not going out to eat. Community transmission to Grandma via our son is a real danger. There are so many of these interactions and decisions that are hard to navigate until you realize it may be a life or death decision for a loved one.
So, after sharing a subset of the below with friends and colleagues, I’ve been encouraged to share more broadly the data that I’ve used to guide my decisions in the hopes it can help others. Disclaimer: I am not an expert on COVID-19. This is an evolving situation and a lot we don’t know. Do you own research.
On Mortality Rates:
1. COVID-19 has a mortality rate 10X higher/more dangerous than Influenza This is according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Congressional hearings this week, advisor to 8 presidents. (Source: NIH)
2. The initial mortality rate in WA state was 16% for those age 60–69. This is 2x the risk of those 20–40. This number is believed higher for those with underlying medical issues but hard to discern. This also assumes that hospital beds are available, more on that below. (Source: WA State Dept of Health)
3/15/2020 Update: WA State DOH has removed mortality rate statistics from their page. Belief is the stats aren’t yet representative based on size of denominator. I will update as we learn more.
3. The initial mortality rate in WA state was 13% for those age 50–59. (Source: WA State Dept of Health) Consider for a second that is only a three percent difference vs. the next bracket.
3/15/2020 Update: WA State DOH has removed mortality rate statistics from their page. Belief is the stats aren’t yet representative based on size of denominator. I will update as we learn more.
On Transmission/Contagion:
4. The virus transmits easily from person to person, in tests it lives in the air for up to 3 hours and on common surfaces for days. (CDC, MedRxIV)
3/16/2020 Update: Ambassador and Dr. Debroah Birx reaffirmed today that the transmission data is sound.
5. The infection rate is exponential, doubling about every two days in USA (Source: World Health Organization)
6. Current models show that over 25,000 people could have COVID-19 in WA King and Snohomish Counties by April 7th (Source: Institute for Disease Modeling)
7. It is believed to be contagious before the infected person is presenting symptoms, and once symptoms appear, the viral load is highest. This presents isolation challenges regardless of age. (Sources: CDC, New England Journal of Medicine)
8. The median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5.1 days before presenting symptoms, 14 days is needed to clear. CDC believes this number is accurate in most cases, but 14-day is safest for isolation (Source: Annals of Internal Medicine, CDC)
9. New evidence shows people without symptoms are spreading the virus, particularly children with COVID-19 have generally presented with mild symptoms and may not even know they are symptomatic/contagious. Their symptoms are often mild and cold-like. (Source: Science Magazine, CDC, NCIRD)
(3/17/2020 Update: Added new Science Magazine article showing evidence that “undocumented” individuals are unwittingly spreading the virus)
10. Genetic sequencing shows that overwhelming majority of Washington state infections started from one infected person entering Washington via SeaTac on or about 1/18. Genetic sequencing done by the Bedford Lab at Fred Hutch and reported by Nextstrain.org lays this out, orchestrating many scientific researcher’s work. Tip — follow Trevor Bedford for plain-english explanations. (Sources: Fred Hutch Bedford Lab, Nexstrain.org)
On our Healthcare system’s ability to respond:
11. At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the US will be filled by May 10th. If 20% of cases require hospitalization it will be May 4th. Even a 2.5% rate only gets us to full by May 22nd. This might explain why schools were to be closed until April 27th. It may be longer depending on how the spread evolves. (Source: Liz Specht and Statnews)
12. We must all “Flatten the Curve” via social distancing immediately
This is accomplished via social distancing. This is what epidemiologists say we can all do to slow the spread. The goal is to reduce strain on our healthcare system and supply-lines by avoiding a huge spike in individuals getting sick. It’s been proven to work. (Source: NPR, University of Oxford, Our World in Data)
13. Here is a great, visual explanation for why outbreaks like coronavirus spread and how to flatten. Former Presidents are tweeting this and it’s backed by sound science. (Source: 3/15 WashPo, Free)
14. Children and young adults under 20 years old may be spreading coronavirus without showing symptoms. Ambassador Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus coordinator and world-reknowned infectious disease expert said they, “…are a group that is potentially asymptomatic and spreading the virus.”. (Source: 3/13 WH Coronavirus Briefing, CNN)
If this helps even one other individual to stay healthy, then it was worth moving from lurking to writing here on Medium. I will try and update as new information becomes available.
TLDR; Practice social distancing. Wash your hands for 20 seconds, wipe surfaces and stop touching your face! Most of all, stay calm and stay informed. We’re all in this together.
