Players to Build Around and Players to Avoid in the Divisional Round of DFS
Prices come from Draftkings.com
Build Around: Russell Wilson ($6,900)
Wilson disappointed many fantasy owners (including myself) last week, scoring a measly 16.7 DK points against a lousy Lions’ secondary, but that doesn’t mean we should avoid him this time around. This week he faces the Falcons’ defense, which has allowed the second most DK points to opposing quarterbacks. It’s going to be a high scoring affair, and given the likelihood that both teams score 30 plus points, Wilson is highly likely to have a high number of passing attempts. The amount of volume Wilson provides you this week exceeds what you would expect out of a quarterback at his price. Last time these two teams meant, Wilson only put up 11.5 points, but that was at a time in which he was banged up with multiple injuries. He’s going to have a relatively low ownership this week compared to the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, which only adds to his value.
Avoid: Ben Roethlisberger ($6,500)
Despite playing at home last week, Roethlisberger still only scored 14.9 DK points, well below his 19.6 yearly average. In three of his last four games Big Ben has failed to score more than 15 points and two of those games were on the road. His home-road splits are nothing to write home about either. Roethlisberger is just a different guy on the road than he is at home. He averages nearly 11 fewer DK points on the road than at home. And this week he’s going up against the Chiefs, a team that likes to slow the game down. This game has a 21–17, 20–13, type of feel to it, meaning the upside on a lot of these players is capped at a much lower projection than normal. Throw in the predicted weather (snow) and it makes Roethlisberger a must avoid in both cash and GPP.
Build Around: Thomas Rawls ($6,900)
Another position, another Seahawks’ player to build around. Rawls is coming off of his best game of the season. He scored 26.2 DK points last week. This week he his matchup against the Falcons is extremely juicy. The Falcons have given up 4th most DK points to opposing running backs this season, and if it weren’t for a few cake-walk matchups at the end of the regular season, the Falcons would have likely finished last against opposing running backs.
Avoid: Lamar Miller: ($5,600)
The Texans are 17 point underdogs in Saturday night’s game against the Patriots, and Miller isn’t playing his best football. Miller has been a boom or bust player all season long, either rewarding owners with a big week or putting up less than five points. The Patriots’ defense has been among the best, allowing the 25th fewest amount of DK points to opposing running backs. With the Texans being such heavy underdogs, and with the likelihood that they get down by a large amount, Miller is a must avoid in this tough matchup.
Build Around: Julian Edelman ($6,800)
The Patriots bread and butter has been short passes all season long, and Tom Brady’s favorite target, Julian Edelman has benefited greatly from this. Since week 11, Edelman has received double digit targets in all but one game, a game in which he still received eight. He’s almost a lock for double-digit targets, and in DFS volume is the name of the game. Of the receivers priced around him (Dez Bryant, Davante Adams, ECT.) Edelman has the safest floor and an enormous ceiling, He’s safe in both cash and GPP this week.
Avoid: Tyreek Hill ($5,500)
Tyreek Hill has been the definition of a boom or bust player this season. Almost all of his fantasy production comes from touchdowns rather than receptions and yardage. Touchdowns are impossible to predict, and a guy like Hill, who has dominated the DFS game for a little over a month is more than likely going to regress back to the mean. It’s almost impossible to keep up his insane stretch of double-digit fantasy games with the amount of volume he receives.