League football is fine, good even, great where it wants to be, but European Competitions is what we all wait for (despite very inconvenient times of play for us in the Americas, I think my boss is starting to suspect something since I conveniently get sick around 2:45 every Tuesday/Wednesday in the Fall). Some of the best clubs get to ply their trade against each other and we get to witness clash of styles and mentalities across Europe. This is the true showcase of the best of the best (and Qarabag) and me and Cameron Climie are trying very hard to be right this time around.
Group A
Benfica, Manchester United, Basel, CSKA Moscow
Cam: This group is deceivingly tricky: Manchester United have begun the season firing on all cylinders, and picked up Zlatan (The First of his Name) again this afternoon, and are coming off a Europa League title with a manager who knows how to get through the group stage by hook, crook, or whatever other means are necessary. All that said, I wouldn’t write of there being surprises in this one — Basel have a long history of upsetting teams in European competition (they did so to Manchester United back in 2011–12), and Moscow is a brutally difficult away trip, both due to geography and the inevitable onset of Russian winter.
A season ago, I’d have pegged Benfica for an easy 2nd in this group, with an outside possibility of topping the group. But they’ve been substantially weakened by summer transfers to an even greater extent than they usually are — Semedo to Barcelona and Eder to City. I think 2nd is probably a tossup, but I anticipate CSKA taking a scalp and give a slight edge to Benfica based solely on their experience getting out of tough situations in prior Champions League groups and stages.
Moving On: Manchester United || Benfica
Europa League: CSKA Moscow
Serge: United came out of the gate possessed in the EPL and my only concern with them was what happens when Lukaku is not playing. Well, that is solved because Zlatan, the King of Men (for we are unworthy) returns to the fold. His body may not withstand a season of EPL again, but he is the perfect striker to go deep in a European competition. I think Mourinho’s ability to always have his teams control the pace will make all of these matches feel like a slug fest, but one that benefits United.
I agree that second and third place are very hard to pin down in this particular situation and I wouldn’t put it past CSKA to keep things interesting at least until matchday five. That being said, even with losing some of their marquee talent in the summer, Benfica just seem a little too good and too poised coming off last year’s success. They were quite frankly one of the two surprise teams of that tournament and should be able to take something even from the brutalistic style of Moscow. Basel will win at least once against United and Benfica too. They know how these matches go.
Moving On: Manchester United || Benfica
Europa League: Basel
Group B
Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain, Anderlecht, Celtic
Cam: To Arsenal’s credit, the best way to avoid hitting Bayern Munich or PSG in the Group Stages is to not be in the Champions League at all. Instead, those two teams are hitting each other in what is one of the more exciting, yet top-heavy, groups in the stages. PSG are probably the stronger side on paper, but I think two things work against them vis-a-vis Bayern Munich: the first is that PSG have suddenly developed a reputation for bottling key moments (See: 4–0 first leg lead, blown) and for having a defense that can panic if things start going poorly; by contrast, Bayern’s defense has been reinforced and fine-tuned in successive seasons, and their offensive threat is just as potent as ever. Second, I think it’s possible that integrating Neymar into the fold takes a little longer than we anticipate — he’s a great player who’s already demonstrated absurd skills in his brief time in Ligue 1, but the extent to which the system has been adapted to new signings (or vice versa) really becomes clear against top-level teams. They’ll both qualify, but I think Bayern have a slight edge in intangibles that will put them through ahead.
Moving On: Bayern Munich || Paris St. Germain
Europa League: This is honestly a crapshoot, but I’ll pick Celtic. The home ground is intimidating enough that they might be able to take a point off of one of Bayern or PSG, and that will probably be enough in a group this top-heavy.
Serge: Remember Celtic’s improbable performances last year that all ended up imploding on themselves? Still, no one likes to travel to their home turf and I think that’s the difference between them and Anderlecht in this group.
The top two teams are… For the most part decided. I don’t know how PSG works without Matuidi and Veratti will probably be hurt for half the games anyways. While they have all the talent they need for going forward, when locked, I would trust Bayern’s defence to guard any vault in the world. Neymar is known to be flashy and PSG has provided him with the perfect showcase for his talent, I just feel like the ruthless German efficiency of Munich will make things more frustrating than we anticipate for them. It’s the PSG defence that gives me the most pause. They’ve got a lot of young talent coming up, but there is very little evidence for me that Thiago Silva is the same world class defender who was literally the difference between a close Brazil — Germany game and a 1–7 trouncing.
In the end I think it comes down to experience. PSG has been on the rise thanks in part due to what feels like a Scrooge McDuck pool full of money, but Bayern have been here before. Every year. Year after year. There’s one thing I know not to do ever and that is bet against German efficiency.
Moving On: Bayern Munich || PSG
Europa League: Celtic
Group C
Chelsea, Atlético Madrid, AS Roma, Qarabag
Oh man, I actually love this group. Group H has more of the star power of a traditional Group of Death, but I think this group is far more balanced among the top three teams.
I’ve got Atlético topping the group. They’re so experienced and so well drilled in the Champions League that they’re capable of topping groups even with formidable opponents — in the last three seasons, they’ve won groups with Juventus, Benfica, and Bayern Munich without looking like too much effort was involved. At this point, they’re a perennial contender to run deep into knockout rounds, and are so committed and solid in their identity and tactics. Chelsea, on the other hand, have had to make significant adjustments so far this season to account for the departure of Matic and the probable departure of Diego Costa. There’s also already talk that Conte won’t finish the season with the club, and I think there’s just enough chaos that they’ll drop key points in Madrid.
Roma are an excellent team that pushed Juventus close in last year’s Serie A, but there have been a few key departures this summer — Salah to Liverpool, Paredes to Zenit, Francesco Totti to age, coach Luciano Spalleti — and the process of adapting to a new coach and a few key new players may take some time. I think they have alright odds of beating Chelsea to 2nd, but a trip to the Europa League seems the most likely outcome.
Qarabag are cannon fodder. No further comments,your honour.
Moving On: Atlético || Chelsea
Europa League: AS Roma
Serge: In stark contrast to Manchester City vs. Napoli, watching which is going to feel like what I imagine huffing cocaine and chasing it with MDMA feels likes, Chelsea and Atletico Madrid game will be… Something else entirely. Both teams are exceptionally well drilled, rely on leaving very little space for their opponents to operate in and close down very well. They’re also expert at breaking out into the counter-attack on a whim. The biggest difference is that Chelsea is a lot wider with three at the back and require a little bit more tracking back from N’Golo Kante, who may be a robot. That’s what will cost them alongside their somewhat shaky start in the Premiership, which I take as evidence that they haven’t exactly formed up their squad well this summer. Which is why I think they’ll be the English team that doesn’t make it out of this round. Turmoil with Conte and the transfer market will take its toll sooner over later.
I think Roma is better than what people give them credit for, and as we discussed on Kicking About, the Italian league is due for a renaissance. Spalletti joined the 3–5–2 trend last year, and while they had a shaky end to their campaign, it just works. Losing Salah isn’t as important as you think and as long as Radja Nainngolan is in the midfield I give them a fighting chance. The Nainngolan vs. Kante battle should be particularly entertaining. Also, this is their first season without Francesco Totti in a long time. I feel almost as emotional as when Tim Duncan retired.
I too have no comment on Qarabag
Moving On: Atletico Madrid || AS Roma
Europa League: Chelsea
Group D
Juventus, Barcelona, Olympiakos, Sporting Clube de Portugal
This group is also surprisingly, and frustratingly, tricky. It’s also tricky to gauge the order of the top two. Both Barcelona and Juventus are among the top teams in Europe, but both have also seen key departures (Bonucci, Neymar “Judas II” Jr, Luis Enrique) that were at the heart of their teams’ success. My gut says that this will be the year that Barcelona finish 2nd in their group. Juventus have proven far more adaptable as a tactical unit, and provided their midfield is healthy I actually think it’s a more cohesive and coherent unit than Barcelona’s (admittedly a big if). It’ll take time for Dembele to adapt to Barcelona’s very particularist style of play, and a front two of Messi and Suarez, while still formidable, isn’t nearly as intimidating as the three-headed death Hydra of MSN. Juventus’s impregnable backline also proved more than able to stop them in last season’s quarterfinals. I think Juventus top this one with Barcelona taking second.
As to third, it’s relatively even,which again makes it hard to gauge, but my gut says Sporting CP make it to the Europa League simply due to their coaching quality (Jorge Jesus did two deep champions league runs and two Europa League finals when he was at Benfica) but this one could honestly go either way.
Moving on: Juventus || Barcelona
Europa League: Sporting CP
Serge: Losing Bonucci and Dani Alves hurts, I just figure it hurts them a lot less than losing Neymar “About to go Westbrook” Junior. Alves and Bonucci were an integral part of the Juventus spine, but they still have Barzaghli, Chiellini AND they broguht in Medhi Benatia who has experience in Serie A and Italian sides before flaming out at Bayern. I think they will be fine at the back and well drilled, backed up by GiGi Buffon, who is now basically an Ent, rooted to the goal line. The key addition here is Matuidi who is exactly what Juventus look for in a midfielder and will also be an important player when it comes to covering the back three. They’re well drilled and organized, and I think Neymar and Bonucci departures cover each other off, meaning Juve takes first in this group.
Barcelona spent this entire off season covering itself in a particular kind of distinction, slowly alienating players and fans before overpaying for Ouseman Dembele (not bad) and in lesser amount for Paulinho (OUCH). They’re getting held over the coals this summer because of how much they made off Neymar and still are failing to address the most important area of the field (ya’ll know Iniesta is in his 30s right)? They’ve fallen to Madrid over the past year and their over-reliance on Messi got exposed in the Juve match-up, which I think will happen again. They can’t afford another disastrous showing at home and that might cost them first place here.
The back end is very tricky in this group, despite there being two clear favourites. Olympiakos are no slouches and if there is one weakness Portuguese clubs have in Europe since Mourinho is coming up against tough defensive sides who lock the door and then break out on counters, which is basically the training manual for all the managers in Greece. I actually give the third place to them, given how solid they’re known to be defensively, and my hot take is that they will take points of either Juve or Barca in the process.
Moving On: Juventus || Barcelona FC
Europa League: Olympiacos
