Since I am currently trading daily, I decided to throw in my outlook on the market situation and a modest series about what happened and will happen.
Part 1 — Six months to crisis
“There’s always markers and indicators”
– It is July 2019. After 11 years, the markets reached the greatest crisis at ATH (All Time High), the economy is booming, everybody is investing into all kinds of stuff, BTC is above $10k.
– It is the end of August 2019. The world’s richest investor Warren Buffett with his Berkshire Hathaway is exiting his investments, increasing the allocation of USD in his portfolio to $122,000,000,000 (60% of the total of $208B managed), just like he did before the crisis of 2008. [1]
– It is September 2019. Steve Eismen, who successfully predicted the 2008 crisis, making~$1,000,000,000, is shorting banks. [2]
– It is the end of November 2019. Ray Dalio and world’s largest fund Bridgewater Associates is buying put options for major US and EU indexes for $1,000,000,000 with expiration in March 2020 (!) [3]
– It is December 2019. The markets reach another ATH and the P/B ratio, which was an excellent indicator of the 2008 economic crisis and the 2000 dotcom bubble [4], reaches ATH for S&P at the value of 3.6. P/B ratio is an expression of market value to real value of shares ratio. Other indicators like truck purchases or Shiller PE Ratio also resemble the pre-collapse period of the last crisis.
What could potentially happen in the first quarter of 2020?
[1] https://markets.businessinsider.com/…/warren-buffett-berksh…
[2] https://www.gurufocus.com/…/steve-eisman-continues-to-short…
[3] https://markets.businessinsider.com/…/ray-dalio-bridgewater…
[4] https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book