Among “New Coalition” Voters, Democrats Have Best Performance Ever
According to the exit polls the 2018 election saw the Democrats returning to an historically strong position with critical emerging parts of the American electorate — young voters, Hispanics and Asian-Americans. Let’s drill down a bit:
Hispanics — Democrats won the Hispanic vote 69–29, a 40 point spread. This is the best party wide showing since Obama’s 71–27 2012 total, and its second best since Hispanics start becoming a significant share of the electorate. Hispanics also voted in high numbers in a high turnout year, clocking in at 11% of the electorate, equal to 2016 and far exceeding the 8% share we saw in the last three midterms, 2014, 2010 and 2006.
Young People — 18–29 year olds voted Democratic by 35 points, 67–32, the best showing ever for Dems with this demographic. 18–29 year olds made up 13% of the electorate, the same share as the last two midterms, no small thing in a high turnout election. CIRCLE at Tufts University estimates their turnout rate was 31%, up from 21% in 2014, and the highest in over 2 decades.
Under 45s — Voters under 45 preferred Democrats by a whopping 25 points, 61–35. This is the biggest spread ever with this demo, 2nd most was Obama’s 16 point spread in 2008. In 2016 the spread was 14, and in 2014 5. So this is a huge and consequential shift. The “age gap” is now bigger than its more famous cousin, the “gender gap,” and is perhaps the most overlooked demographic in American politics today.
Asian Americans — Asians voted for the Democrats by an astonishing 54 points, 77-23, by far the biggest spread with this demo. In 2016 it was 36 points and in 2014 Republicans won Asian voters by a point. So a remarkable performance.
Taken together, Democrats performed better with these emerging, growing demographics in 2018 than they have in any other election. Was it Trump? Well run campaigns speaking to everyone not just prime voters? Will leave that discussion for another day. For now I sit amazed at this performance, and what it portends for 2020.