Never before have I been to a Eurovision where the winner is wide-open. Everybody thinks a different country could do it. Right now a surprise will be if the ‘favourite’ of Cyprus/Israel manage to take the trophy.
The reason being is that there are routes for many countries to take it; Estonia, Moldova, Ireland, Sweden and Norway are with an outside chance; France, Germany and Lithuania have slightly more chance — not to mention the two power-house pop-bangers that are Israel and Cyprus.
This is my fifth Eurovision and it has certainly been the most exciting (and difficult) in predicting qualifiers and who will win. It’s very telling that over the past week, nine countries have appeared in the bookmakers top five (Israel, Norway, Estonia, Cyprus, France, Lithuania, Sweden, Ireland and Germany).
At least we can agree that Serbia won’t win.
Big Six
Germany will reverse the trend since Vienna of being in the bottom three by catepulting to being the highest placing automatic qualifier. Michael Schulte’s You Let me Walk Alone connects with audiences in a way that France does not achieve. Germany feels like it has momentum going into tonight’s final. The momentum is so strong that they could be a dark horse to win.
France won’t be far behind Germany. Mercy is seen as a potential winner however the simple staging is effective only if you speak French. There are no visual clues to assist in understanding the refugee message. The song only affected me after I read the lyrics — and was especially powerful after I heard the English version.
Portugal, Spain, Italy and the United Kindom will likely be placed close together in the right hand side of the score board. The beauty and raw talent in the Portuguese and Italian entries will place them above Spain and the UK thanks to stronger jury support.
I think this will be Italy’s lowest placing since their return, and the UK will be the bottom of this lower pack.
UK
SuRie is the best thing about our song. That is all I have to say on our entry.
SuRie is a charismatic performer however she is left with a dud and that means that this will be a worse result, looking at a return to the bottom five., and that’s all I’d like to say.
The song isn’t terrible, it’s just safe and plodding. Safe and plodding doesn’t get you any points when there are so many memorable performances in tonight’s show.
Australia & Italy
Australia and Italy will have their worst final position since entering / re-entering the contest (despite both being cracking songs).
Jessica Mauboy has been struggling with the performance which will deportes the jury votes. And it is these jury votes that have traditionally lifted Australia up.
The Italian song is quite introverted. The lovely composition and intense performance will pick up jury support but I think it will struggle to connect with televoters who will be left reeling after the hairography of Cyprus.
Last place
I haven’t the foggiest who will be in last place — partly because I didn’t see any live performances last night at the jury final thus I don’t know how the jury points will be allocated.
At a guess I would suggest either Serbia or the UK. Serbia doesn’t connect that well as a song and isn’t anything special to pick up jury support. And as I’ve already mentioned, the UK song is safe, plodding — and ultimately forgettable.
Top Five
Now it’s time for the big predictions. This is hard as there are routes the win for many countries this year. Unlike the last three years, I expect positions 5–3 to be wrong.
Moldova
Moldova is likely to score highly tonight given it is just a fun song performed on the right side of farce. DoReDos clearly are having the time of their lives as they serve up pure Carry-On camp. This will win the televote in the UK.
Norway
Alexander Rybak is an assured performer, who shows us how to verb a noun. Whether that is writing a song or polishing a turd, his notoriety together with his charisma is what brings this sub-par song into an undeserving top-five.
Sweden
Sweden once again will top five. I really enjoy the song and it on screen it makes a huge visual impact. I don’t like myself for predicting this will top five, as this is the fourth year Sweden have provided us with a solo male artist — something of a law of diminishing returns if I am honest.
Most people watching will be doing for the first time, and Sweden will appear better and more current compared to Hungary and Moldova.
Israel
Israel were the betting favourite from release in March until rehearsals began, until the true awe inspiring power of Cyprus’ hairography became clear. Israel do have momentum however it isn’t in the direction they would wish for hours from the final.
Whilst being placed between Hungary and Netherlands offers contrast, this contrast is not as huge as the bump Cyprus gets by being placed between Ireland and Italy, further reducing their changes.
The song was instant for me, largely because of it’s modern sound and relevant lyrics, echoing the #metoo movement. Once performed live, both Israel and Cyprus appear strained and unpolished, however only Cyprus comes off as fun and carefree.
Cyprus
Cyprus have got the momentum to win. They have the story of being a recent favourite having arrived in Lisbon and replacing Israel as favourite who previously had a huge lead in terms of betting odds.
Cyprus clearly want to win the contest. The hunger is evident with every hair flick, every thigh gyration and every breathless vocal.
By no means it is a confident prediction, all is to playfor. Given Israel’s strained feel, I believe if Cyprus also stumbles, any of these five (and more) could win.
Exciting!
