Good points raised Sajal! :)

I agree with the first point- nothing can be as accurate as factual data from the users themselves. Though in the absence of the same (due to time & business constraints), putting oneself in users’ shoes is a good practice to begin with. In the analogy, the host is at a stage when he will have to take action as per his best understanding of the user — which may or may not be accurate as his own biases will define certain aspects despite best intentions.

In the second point, the stages would vary with experience being contextual to beginner, intermediate and expert levels. Though I believe variety would still be a common denominator. The level of varied stages/ excitement would differ as per the levels of users. Going back to the analogy, if we already understand a weekly visitor’s pattern we may stick to it, say for some weeks. But to keep a balanced excitation level over the long term, we may still have to introduce certain pleasant breaks in the pattern here and there to keep the visitor’s interest alive. The breaks or new experiences introduced would be better informed though as we already know what the weekly guest’s preferences are.