If you live almost anywhere in the world, and you pay attention to the world economy, you’re probably concerned about your national currency crashing at some point in the future.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, there has been a constant stream of people putting forth the message that the dollar will crash, there will be hyperinflation, etc. Mostly in an effort to get you to buy gold.
In the cryptocommunity, there hasn’t been the same level of hysteria, probably because few profit much from the sale of bitcoin to the same extent as the gold dealers.
That is not so say that the problems inherent in the crisis of 2008 have been solved . They haven’t there is still too much debt and lack of the ability to pay it off. The can for the most part has been kicked down the road — “extend and pretend” everything is alright.
So while the cries of hyperinflation have been extreme, many people feel that things are not right and we are in a dangerous time.
So what should you do if you are afraid of your national currency crashing? Traditionally for many people the answer has been gold. And there have been cries of $10,000 per ounce as well as the hyperinflation. Eventually these people may be right — just like a stopped clock.
Usefulness of Gold vs Cryptocurrency
However, in the event of a crisis, how useful really is gold? Can you imagine yourself going into your local coffee store with an ounce (valued at ~$1400) of gold and expect them to take it or give change?
Now, lets take a look at cryptocurrency. It can be easily stored on your mobile phone in a digital wallet. Just like your credit or debit cards for Apple Pay — for those of you that have iPhones. Then to buy or sell something or even exchange money with your friends, you simply need to scan a QR code on their phone or yours.
So, it’s quite likely that within a couple of years you may be able to pay for a coffee with a digital currency such as Ethereum or Dash (which has almost instant transactions). In fact, there are already places that will accept Bitcoin, even though it’s not ideal for these types of transactions due to it’s long transaction time.
What I’m proposing you should do, is to invest in one of the main cryptocurrencies. The purpose of this article is not necessarily to pick one, although obviously some are better than others. I
Just like Gold, though, cryptocurrencies have limited supply by design, can not be printed at will and thus inflated away. Also they operate on a world market and don’t seem to be too closely tied with any one currency. National currencies on the other hand tend to be continually inflating and losing their value. When they actually stop inflating and we have deflation, policy makers and bankers become terrified that the whole system will collapse.
In fact when it comes down to it, the value of any kind of money has more to do with the belief in it than anything else. Prior to 1970s, the US dollar was backed by Gold for foreign exchange purposes and prior to 1935 it was backed for domestic users. i.e you could exchange dollars for gold in a bank if desired (as far as I know). However, since then — like most other currencies — it is not backed by anything in reality other than the stability of the country and the ability of it’s workforce to repay debt.
Cryptocurrencies on the other hand are now gaining wider and wider traction as well as getting support by banks and investors. In fact there is a race to have a Wall Street ETF tied to either Bitcoin or Ethereum. So the belief that there is value there is definitely the case. This belief is warranted since in general they have many advantages over Fiat money. In fact, the Central Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have already looked into possibly issuing their own digital currencies.
Another reason they are believed to have value by many is because they are decentralized and not owned or controlled by any one Corporation or Government.
Another Financial Crisis coming?
Getting back to the current state of the world though. If you were worried about your currency, typically you’d buy Gold — which is not even easy to do to begin with, or perhaps Dollars or Euros. There have been many times in the past where I’ve thought about buying Euros for example when I felt the Dollar would drop significantly. However, even that is not easy. You’d probably have to go to a bank to exchange cash and then find somewhere to stash it in your house. Plus the exchange rate fees might be so high to not make it worthwhile unless you saw a big move ahead. Buying Gold — if you want physical gold, means finding a coin store or possibly pawn shop that trades it.
Cryptocurrencies, however, now are not that difficult to obtain any more. I can’t speak for everywhere in the world, but I believe at least in Europe or the US it is quite easy to obtain Bitcoin — and then exchange that for other currencies if you have a preference.
To give some practical examples of where this would have paid off, let’s look at some examples from the recent past.
- China. Due to fears of a Yuan devaluation, Bitcoin rose in value (that may be speculation but I believe there is some truth there). The Yuan in fact did devalue slightly and so any Bitcoin you had held would be worth more in Yuan terms.
- Britain. Around the same time as above, there were fears that Britain would leave the EuroZone due to a referendum. In fact, the vote was passed and the British pound dropped almost immediately by 10–15% against the Euro. Also in the days leading up to the vote, there were long lines in England for people buying Euros for their planned Summer European vacations. So again if you had of purchased a cryptocurrency you could have avoided that large immediate drop.
- Venezuela. Venezuela has been in crisis now for several months. Long lines for food, the IMF has projected that inflation would reach 204% this year. A year ago, one dollar equaled 175 bolivars. Now a dollar is worth 865 bolivars.
There have also been reports of bank runs in both Turkey after recent terrorist activity and even in Italy due to the instability of their system. And let’s face it if there ever is another big crisis, ATM will very quickly empty out. There just isn’t enough cash available if everyone wants it. It would take years just to print what is needed.
Given that Britain is planning to leave the EU, it is more likely that other countries will follow. The EU has been almost useless in helping the people of Greece, Spain, Italy or Portugal. So at some point, those countries may say enough is enough and leave the EU. At that point if you live there, it will probably be too late to buy Gold, cryptocurrency or Euros from other countries (each Euro has a designated country of origin printed on it) at reasonable prices.
And the currency crisis is not just in Europe. Inflation in Brazil for example is officially between 9 and 10%. There are large economic problems in Japan too. These days there are very few places untouched by economic or financial crisis. Just about any country could have a currency devaluation relative to others, although I think the US is in better shape than most.
So are cryptocurrencies failsafe? No, in fact if you were British or Chinese and bought back in June, it’s likely that now in August prices have dropped below what you paid. It would have still worked as a hedge, but you’d have also needed to get back out. Unless of course, you have a long term bullish view on cryptocurrency in which case it is better just to hold on to them.
Finally how did cryptocurrencies do the last time there was a financial crisis? Well actually they didn’t exist! However, both Gold and the US dollar were seen as safe havens and both done well. So given the ease of obtaining cryptocurrency, it’s ease of use and it’s limited supply, don’t you think it might do well in a future crisis?
