Markets.Vote — Ballot 26 Analysis

Ballot 26 Analysis 03/04/21–10/05/21

Predicted Winner: UNI

In this week’s ballot a total of 1505 votes were allocated, the most of any ballot since this analysis began.

UNI being the asset favored by the citizens to make the most gain.

It received 216 votes, equating to 14.4% of all the votes.

The citizens were also bullish on LINK (191 votes, 12.7%) and COMP (166 votes, 11%) making up the top 3.

DAI was predicted to be the worst performing asset with only 109 votes, 7.2% of the vote.

The Mean number of votes stands at 151. This is the average number of votes per asset

The Standard Deviation is 33. The standard deviation measures how spread out the data is, in our case, how spread out the actual votes are from the mean number of votes.

The convention is that 65% of the data, votes, lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean and 95% within 2 standard deviations and 99% within 3.

For the first time our data does not fit the standard convention. This is potentially due to:

  1. Higher number of participants
  2. Lowest gas fees for a number of months
  3. A higher mint rate of IDs since DAO voted to increase decay rate by 500%
  4. Upcoming airdrop

As mentioned earlier, this was the highest turn out for a vote and with many new participants this has skewed our data set.

Given UNI was our predicted winner, it did not fall within 1SD of the mean, in fact it just fell within 2SDs indicating that more voters were feeling bullish due to the long awaited release of V3 and higher usage of the DEX as many sought to take advantage of the heavily discounted gas fees. This was evident with UNIs TVL rising from $6.23 Billion to $7.87 Billion over the course of the week.

The other asset in the top 3 not falling within 1SD was LINK. Back in 2nd place this week after being left out of the top 3 the previous ballot. Link received 191 votes off the back of a 25% increase and with new voters joining the ecosystem coupled with the trend that the previous ballot’s biggest gainers tend to get a higher allocation of the vote the following ballot.

There were 3 other assets falling within 2SDs of the mean. Interestingly these made up the bottom 3. WBTC and UMA with 114 votes and DAI with 109 votes.

Outcome:

Actual Winner: LINK

The end of the 7 day period saw 7 assets appreciate in value with LINK the clear winner with an increase of 31.79%.

Honorable mention to YFI with a 9.44% increase across the 7 day period.

In an interesting turn of events from last week where the citizens managed to predict 2 of the top 3 gainers, this week the top and 3rd voted assets, UNI and COMP, wer actually the worst performing assets, a clear case of Sell the news where UNI is concerned, while LINK being voted into second place was the clear winner.

With a lot more votes taking place, it is clear there was a lot more noise added to ballot 26 and if anything opening up the game to new contestants may have decreased the accuracy of the votes. With that said, the above must be taken with a pinch of salt as it is still very early to measure and see the impact.

With Gas prices rising during the week, the turn out for Ballot 27 was a lot lower, 617 votes to be exact. This is a 59% drop compared to the previous week.

Prize Pool Split:

191 votes were allocated to LINK, sharing a pool of 100,000 $FVT.

This equated to approximately 524 $FVT per single vote.

Expected payouts:

With gas prices relatively cheap and struggling to break the $50 barrier to vote (what a change!) you would have been profitable by allocating at least 3 of your $V to LINK. $FVT is taken at 4 cents.

With the change in the decay rate from 1 $FVT per block 5 $FVT per block, the cost of minting an ID is decreasing at five times the speed and we are seeing more IDs being printed.

IDs Minted:

The current ID on offer is 314. 4 IDs have been minted since last week.

ID 310 went for 46,860 $FVT

ID 311 went for 53,700 $FVT

ID 312 went for 61,455 $FVT

ID 313 went for 116,150 $FVT

The demand for IDs is clearly there where eager future players are spending tens of thousands of $FVT to be able to participate within the ecosystem. In addition to this, a number of IDs have also been sold OTC for varying prices.

The week ahead:

Resident Pool Launch Sequence

Resident Pool launches on mainnet next week at midday 12pm UTC Monday! 🚀

The long awaited resident pool opens to all next week and uses Harberger Taxes to reinvent the way that we do yield farming.

This week, Ethereum Citizens will test out Resident Pool, taking part in an incentivised test competing for a share of $2k in FVT. 🦍

On Friday they will take part in the first Citizens vote on influence.vote to determine the launch parameters of Resident Pool which everyone will have access to for real money next week. 🗳

Read the medium article for details:

https://financedotvote.medium.com/finance-vote-resident-pool-launch-sequence-5ea94a8a5236

A sneak peak of influence.vote: