Markets.Vote — Ballot 28 Analysis

Ballot 28 Analysis 17/05/21–24/05/21

Predicted Winner: YFI

In this week’s ballot a total of 762 votes were allocated, up 23.5% compared to Ballot 27’s total number of votes.

YFI being the asset favored by the citizens to make the most gain.

It received 105 votes, equating to 13.8% of all the votes.

The citizens were also bullish on LINK (96 votes, 12.6%) and UNI (91 votes, 11.9%) making up the top 3.

UMA again was predicted to be the worst performing asset with only 33 votes, 4.3% of the vote (Less than one third of the votes LINK received).

The Mean number of votes stands at 76. This is the average number of votes per asset.

The Standard Deviation is 22. The standard deviation measures how spread out the data is, in our case, how spread out the actual votes are from the mean number of votes.

The convention is that 65% of the data, votes, lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean and 95% within 2 standard deviations and 99% within 3.

We can see from the table above, our data fits this with an error interval of 5%.

Given YFI was our predicted winner, it did not fall within either 1 SD of the mean.

The other assets falling within 2SDs of the mean were WBTC and UMA with 51 and 33 votes respectively.

Outcome:

Actual Winner: DAI

The end of the 7 day period saw 9 assets depreciate in value from losing 25% upto 53.86%. It was a red week with many weaker hands calling the Bull run had finished and we had entered the bear market… Nonsense if you ask me.

The top 3 voted assets each depreciated over 50% in value, a feat not seen before.

Prize Pool Split:

65 votes were allocated to DAI, sharing a pool of 100,000 $FVT.

This equated to approximately 1539 $FVT per single vote.

Expected payouts:

With FVT taken at one cent. Given Gas prices are ranging between 85–115 Gwei, you would have needed between 5 & 6 votes on Dai to have broken even. With FVT’s price so low, I doubt many will be selling their winnings but instead hodling and waiting for the market to recover and FVT’s price to appreciate with it before selling.

With the change in the decay rate from 1 $FVT per block 5 $FVT per block, the cost of minting an ID is decreasing at five times the speed and we are seeing more IDs being printed.

IDs Minted:

The current ID on offer is 319. 3 IDs have been minted since the 17th May 2021.

ID 316 went for 50,215 $FVT

ID 317 went for 35,030 $FVT

ID 318 went for 50,175 $FVT

The demand for IDs is clearly there where eager future players are spending tens of thousands of $FVT to be able to participate within the ecosystem. Even with the sell off IDs are still being minted at a constant rate, but the premium has definitely decreased in comparison to weeks gone by.

Yield.Vote:

The outcome of the influence.vote vote on the parameters of the first iteration of the resident’s pool saw ID holders voting for the following:

• ETH/FVT pool on Sushi swap
• Minimum LP to participate: 0
• Maximum LP per slot: 50
• Time decay before pulse reset: 2 weeks

Resident pool has been up and running for nearly 2 weeks and the first pulse is coming to an end. Currently 47 out of the 50 slots are available with varying degrees of burn.