Chapter 10: Food insecurity and human cost
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In 2021, over one-third of the world’s population was food insecure, and global food prices hit an all-time high in March 2022. Climate change, as well as the associated policy responses or lack thereof, is a significant factor to global food stress. Another circumstance is the war in Ukraine, as well as the policy reactions to it. As a result, food insecurity is expected to be a major concern in 2023, increasing the possibility of political turmoil.
The Ukraine conflict will very likely continue to constrain global supplies of nitrogen-based fertilizers, wheat, and cooking oils. Critical wheat exports were enabled in 2022 thanks to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but the initiative’s future is questionable, highlighting the threats to reliable supply. Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Lebanon, all of whom rely on Ukrainian agricultural exports, will find this situation particularly challenging.
The outlook for 2023 is grim. Water stress will become the new status quo, with river levels falling to historic lows and two-thirds of companies worldwide having increased water risks to their activities or supply networks. Due to a water shortage, the United States has decided to limit water releases in western states in 2022. Water scarcity is causing civil unrest in Latin America by intensifying tensions between corporations and individuals. Falling water levels exacerbated Africa’s food crisis, halted shipping and nuclear production in Europe, and forced China to close factories.
Food supplies are especially vulnerable to geopolitical upheavals due to the complexity of agricultural markets and the lengthy production cycle. Governments enacting more stringent export prohibitions and nationalist policies are likely to worsen these disruptions. Because of the uncertainty, more nations will adopt trade protectionism. High gas prices will harm fertilizer production and boost expenses for all farmers, increasing food demand and, as a result, raising food prices. Higher farming expenses will also raise demand for cheap labor in the agricultural industry, which employs 70% of the world’s children, largely primary school-aged youths.
The Horn of Africa, which relies largely on grain from Ukraine and has seen four consecutive failed wet seasons, is predicted to have a difficult 2023. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, for example, the number of children at danger of dropping out of school tripled in the first three months of the conflict.
Young women are the most effected
Food shortages, financial stress, and political chaos are driving reductions in the health and education sectors, pushing primarily young women into the informal economy or cheap farming labor. Young women and girls are especially vulnerable to famine, poverty, sexual exploitation, and forced marriages in West and Central Africa as well as South Asia. COVID-19 alone is expected to force 10 million girls into early marriage, a practice that has been declining since the last major geopolitical disruption.
Climate change, which causes extreme weather conditions such as water shortages, combined with the war in Ukraine, has harmed the food industry and is reversing the progress of many low-income countries in Africa and South Asia by increasing educational abandonment, sexual exploitation as a means of survival, and early marriages.
