Chapter 7: Japan And South Korea Are Awakening
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Japan and South Korea shifting policies
Japan’s foreign policy is already making a big change: the country is expanding its military. Since 1945, the Japanese Constitution (Article 9) has limited Tokyo’s military maneuverability as well as its foreign policy autonomy. However, in response to continual threats from North Korea, Russia, and China, Tokyo is aggressively rethinking its military strategy. We expect Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to seek popular support before proceeding with the referendum.
In 2023, Japan and South Korea will be pushed closer together. Tokyo and Seoul will improve their ties in order to tackle China and the DPRK together.
North Korea is likely to carry out further ballistic and nuclear tests in 2023. The peninsula’s tensions will rise, causing minor encroachment from the north and skirmishes with the south.
It is expected to see debates in South Korea over reconsidering their defense posture.
To begin, we can expect a more open box strategy, different from the decapitation strategy, which includes using preemptive surgical attacks to neutralize the North’s leadership and key military sites before launching an offensive assault on South Korea.
Second, we may witness a debate over lowering the South’s ballistic missile limit, as well as conversations about hosting American nuclear weapons. We don’t expect to see actual nuclear related changes in the South in 2023, although Seoul may explore the option in the near future. Of course, such discussions would trigger a response from China in the form of economic sanctions against South Korean companies that conduct business in China.
A new military coup in Thailand?
In Thailand, we expect the ruling party, Palang Pracharat, to involve the military in the electoral process due to its small chances of a fair victory in the election. We can see another major military incursion into the electoral process in Thailand, either in the form of a coup or to support the ruling party.
Will the economic crisis push Pakistan closer to China and Saudi Arabia?
The Pakistani economic crisis is fueled by massive debt, limited foreign currency reserves, rising inflation, and the conflict in Ukraine.
We foresee Islamabad attempting to solve its economic difficulties via bilateral agreements rather than negotiating with the IMF in the next year. To prevent blackouts and social unrest, the government must secure its imports of natural gas, oil, and coal.
Dealing with the IMF is a double-edged sword for the Pakistani administration since IMF-backed austerity measures would undermine the stability of the government. China, like Saudi Arabia and a few other Middle Eastern countries, is a long-term partner for Islamabad. As a result, we can expect Pakistan to become more active in bilateral discussions, particularly with China and Saudi Arabia.
