Chapter 9: Will Iran Collapse in 2023?

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Protests led by young people, mainly women, swept the country in 2022, facing the government with its most serious popular threat since the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic to power. Protesters are openly anti-government, seeking the abolition of the religious regime. According to human rights groups, police have murdered around 500 people in reprisal. Tehran has made no compromises on the topic of significant reforms. When faced with public unrest, the state has proved its inability to respond in any way other than brutally.

At the same time, Tehran provided military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, while intensifying its nuclear program. All actions made by Tehran are decisively positioning the country against the West and particularly Israel. The more antagonism with the West, the more chances for Washington to accept right-wing Netanyahu strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

The regime will not collapse in 2023 but the social unrest might force Tehran to raise tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia in an attempt to move the public attention. Low flying drones attacks against Saudi oil facilities like the one in 2019 are less probable now, however Iranian attacks from Yemen and Iraq against Saudi Arabia are possible. Regarding Israel, Tehran has the capacity to retaliate from Lebanon, Gaza and Syria against Israel. Israeli deployment of defense systems in the UAE shows us the Gulf states are taking Iran attacks into consideration.

Washington does not have an appetite for a major confrontation in the Middle East, but with a right-wing government in Jerusalem, a nuclear deal out of reach and a UN missile ban on Iran expected to expire in October, the Israeli-Iranian and Saudi-Iranian tensions are expected to rise in 2023.