What would have happened if Germany had won WWII? (Quora)

This question is very popular among history enthusiasts. Being one of them I will try to answer based on what we know and try to anticipate what would’ve happened.

Let’s first look at the geopolitics of each state. Based on their resources and policies we might make an alternative history scenario.

Germany

They had good military tactics but its enemies were superior in number. If the Red Army somehow collapse during the war, Germans would occupy Moscow, Stalingrad, and Leningrad. They install a puppet government as they did in Vichy France.

The difference is their policies. From a Nazi perspective, the Slavic people have no place in the new Germany. That’s why a permanent resistance formed by partisan movements will terrorize the German military in the following 2 decades.

Germans wouldn’t be able to control the vast territories of Russia and Ukraine. After the official surrender of the Soviets, Russia it would become kind of Afghanistan. Ongoing guerilla warfare, huge financial investments and most likely American support for the partisans.

The main change would happen because of technology. Germany would develop medium-range missiles and nuclear weapons in the 1950s before the Americans. Even though Germany developed nuclear weapons they were not able to deliver them to the US mainland.

Japan

The only successful scenario for Japan would be to destroy the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. By doing that the US would be out of the war until the end but it wouldn’t hurt the US industry.

So, in this scenario, the US is still the most powerful economy in the world.

Regarding Japan, they would face continuous and expensive guerilla warfare in China and Central Asia.

They would have enough oil and other resources from Asia but with a huge cost in both human and financial. It is less expensive to simply buy oil from Indonesia than trying to conquer them and steal oil. Their war was simply not feasible. In the following years, Japan would face huge economic problems because of their wars.

The UK

After the German invasion, they became a Nazi puppet. India and African colonies would take the opportunity and declare independence in 1944–1950.

Italy

With a weak military power, they wouldn’t be able to stabilize newly conquered African colonies from France and the British. The Americans would step in by helping rebels in Morocco and Algeria.

Russia & Eastern Europe

Germany will start colonizing Poland, Ukraine, Baltic states and West Russia. Genocide will continue a few more years until the Nazis will realize they need labor force, so a racially divided society is formed. A German minority based on colonists will dominate and persecute the Slavic people.

Lend Lease programme will continue 2 decades, Russian factions including communists will fight against Germans in guerilla warfare. Russia would be for Germany what Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union in our timeline. A lot of investments without real results.

The US

After Pearl Harbor, FDR resigns and Truman became president. He started a war economic effort in order to rebuild the US Navy as soon as possible. The lend-lease program continued for the British, British resistance and Soviet partisans.

In the early 1950s, the US Pacific fleet was ready to fight, but Japan already expanded their naval capabilities.

The main purpose of the US Navy would be to keep Japanese and German out of the American continent.

In our timeline, the US scientists were helped by former Nazi researchers. Without them, the US technological advance would come up later but would receive a lot of funds from the US government anyway.

Australia & New Zealand

Very tricky situation: Japan would never conquer Australia. Japan would be caught in other operations in China, Indonesia, and Indochina.

Australia & NZ would remain liberal democracies but they might not be as close as to the US as they were after WW2 in our timeline. The main geopolitical constraint for them is to keep commercial routes available. That’s why Australia fought alongside the US everywhere, every time. But in our scenario the US Navy no longer control all commercial routes so, a neutral position of Australia between those two powers is the most probable outcome.

The Cold Wars

The US faced both Japan and Germany (no longer allies) in two separate cold wars. In the late 1950s, the US and Germany developed nuclear weapons with long-range bombardiers. Because of the nuclear weapons, another world war is discouraged.

A lot of proxy wars would dominate geopolitics of the seconds half of the 20th century.

1. The US would back Russian partisans. Highly trained and skilled former Soviet officers would terrorize German and Japanese troops in Russia and Central Asia. Russia would become a black hole for German war funds.
2. China — a lot of factions would receive US funds to fight Japan.
3. The Middle East — tribes and kings split between Americans and Germans. The rivalry between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia would exist because both powers would exploit religious discourse in order to fight each other.
4. Africa — After Italy victory, the US would finance tribed in Morroco and Algeria to fight Italians. Egypt perhaps would become independent. There is no way Italy could ever be able to control Egypt. However, an independent Egypt would be part of the compromise between Washington and Berlin due to its strategic position.
5. Latin America — It is very tricky here. Argentina was a Nazi sympathizer during the war. In this scenario, I expect the US would stage a coup in order to clean all the American continent. In the same manner, as they stage coups to overthrow socialist regimes and replace them with fascists ones in order to counter Soviet influence, in this scenario the exact opposite would happen: the US would finance communism in order to counter German influence.

Middle East

With a huge oil demand the world, the Middle East would be a proxy war theatre between the US and Germany. Tribes from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Palestine, Jordan, and Syria would be split between Americans and Germans.

Iran and Turkey would be under the German sphere of influence.

The US started to build its influence in Saudi Arabia since the 1930s, so, I consider a pro-American Saudi state relatively stable the most probable outcome. Being the closest allied country to Germany, the Saudis would host American nuclear medium-range missiles.

India

In our timeline, India became independent in 1947. It is likely that India to become independent a few years earlier. Pakistan and Bangladesh would secede from India like in our world, but the Indian-Pakistan conflict would become a proxy between Nazi-Pakistan and US-backed India.

The 1960s

In our time the welfare state allowed an economic boom during the 1960s in all the free world. As a result, education created a cleavage between young college educated people and their parents.

The educational system in Europe would be dominated by Nazism so, we don’t see a sexual revolution, hippies, modern art as a cultural movement but we can see those things as a suburban illegal movement.

Iceland Middle Crisis

Similar to Cuban Missile Crisis in our timeline, we would have an Icelandic Missile Crisis in the 1960s after a Nazi-backed coup, Iceland entered under German sphere of influence and allow the Wehrmacht to install medium-range missile that can reach Canada and the US.

The US imposed a blockade and the crisis ends when the US agree to dismantle its nuclear missiles from Saudi Arabia and Germany to do the same with their missiles in Iceland.

(Iranians transformed religious imposed clothes into a fashion desired style.)

The 1970s

A Nazi Europe in the 1970s would be very similar to Iran today.

The underground cultural movement from the 1960s became visible in Europe. Inspired by the American culture which would be the same, Europeans would challenge the Nazi status quo in Europe.

With a lot of protests and resistance movements reactivated in France, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Italy, Britain and even Germany itself, the Nazi government would make some concessions relaxing the regime.

Due to its absolute control, the Nazi governments all over Europe would be highly bureaucratic. In Europe, we would see two different societies, the official Nazi one and an underground society based on American inspired culture and financed by the black market.

The free black market would become more appealing to people than a Nazi corrupt economy. The “inferior” non-german people would develop illegal but profitable businesses. In this way, resistance movements could be financially and morally supported.

During the communist regimes in our timeline, people from Russia, Poland, Romania, Yugoslavia formed a black market economy and a parallel society but the communists provided the same for all regardless ethnicity, also the market was highly controlled by the state more than the Nazi government controlled the German market during its 12 years in power. The main difference in our scenario is a racially, bureaucratic economy.

Nazi Europe would look more like the Iranian economy today: a parallel economy and a parallel society.

The same is available in Japanese territories.

The 1980s

Due to their domestic issues, Europeans would face poverty. Meanwhile, the free market and democratic values in the US would results in innovation, education, businesses. Yes, we will have internet, mobile phones but mostly in the US. The Germans would try to copy some large consumptions products from the US in the same way the Soviet Union and its allies were interested in Pepsi and other American products during the 1980s.

German war in Russia would end in an “honorable peace”, which means, in fact, a Russian victory. German would need to reduce its vital space to Poland and a part of Ukraine.

The occupation of France, the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden, and Norway would become extremely expensive.

After 40 years of war, a huge human cost and financial instability would result in protests and demands for reforms. German people would directly challenge their government.

In the same way, Gorbachev tried to reform the Soviet Union in order to avoid total collapse, a similar political figure would attempt to do the same in Germany.

The military occupation of Western European countries will end before the 1990s.

On the Japanese side, their Empire will totally collapse ending up in a civil war.

The Cold War would be won by the Americans due to their economic progress based on free market and real competition. A centralized economy simply cannot challenge that. Not even China today despite the news.

The 1990s

Germany no longer controls Western European countries. The Reich is dissolved. Poland gains independence but is ending up in an ethnic civil war between German colonists and Polish people. The same happens in Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Ukraine, and Caucasus.

The civil wars will be fought between the local population and German second generation os colonists, people who were born in those countries. In Poland and Ukraine a genocide would happen, this time against German ethnics.

Think of Yugoslav wars, but with two major differences: replicated in Poland, Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia Caucasus and no one will intervene.

A revolution followed by a coup made by the SS would end the Nazi regime in Germany. The SS will disguise itself in a democratic political force in order to maintain control.

The newly liberated countries in Western Europe would align themselves with the US. The Bush Plan (the equivalent of the Marshall Plan) would help those state to adopt a free market economy.

The 2000s

The Western transition to the free market and democracy will be fast and finished in the early 2000s. The UN is formed by the US, France, the UK, and Australia. With unanimity on the Security Council, they will adopt what we call today R2P (Right to Protect), which basically means national sovereignty is conditioned by human rights.

They will intervene in Poland and Caucasus and will impose a total embargo against the new German SS-ish government in order to overthrow SS without risking a nuclear war. Basically, Germany will become what Russia is today under Putin but weaker.

Anti-missile facilities would be installed in France, England, Sweden, Poland, Serbia surrounding Germany, reducing their nuclear weapons efficiency.

The 2010s

An Orange Revolution took place in Germany. The SS is overthrown and a new democratic government takes place. Germany starts real reforms and denazification.

War crimes are acknowledged. The few Jewish survivors are allowed to create the state of Israel within Palestine.

A reconciliation happens between Germany and France. A European economic community is formed.

The situation in China and Russia stabilize. Is hard to say what type of ideology they would follow, but they would be very weak anyway.

Japan abolish the monarchy and establish the Parliamentary Republic.

From a social point of view, we will have Facebook, Twitter, free speech, we will travel in the same way. The economy during the 2010s will behave like the 1960s economy from our timeline, a boom followed by unprecedented prosperity, health, and education.

Conclusion

In my view, the US would win the Cold War against both Germany and Japan. My assumption is based on my strong belief in the free market and individual freedom. We can see today that what bureaucratic states can do and how innovative are businesses in a dictatorship.

The US has a tremendous industrial power before WW2, an invasion like we see in The Man in the High Castle is unlikely a part of the reason is the Second Amendment, another one is its geographical position. Japanese would never afford to move their all military to California and fight on the US soil.

Without being invaded and without becoming a Nazi state, the US would win bigly.