A Little Over a Day with the All Day Marketplace.
The NFL is king of American sports. There isn’t much debate there if we’re talking about revenue, attendance, ratings and symbolism. Top Shot is currently the king of the NFT space, but with the All Day marketplace opening, a lot of people hyped that there was a new challenger to overtake the throne. We had it for a few minutes, then as all great marketplaces with high demand do, it crashed into oblivion and had to be reopened. We’ve had it back open now for a little over a day, so let’s take a look at what we’ve got here with All Day.
First and foremost, let me get out of the way, I absolutely drug All Day on the Twitter machine in a fit of rage when I got hosed out of a pack. I don’t hold it against them, but yes I was avidly ticked (as most people would be) and had a fairly trip down customer service lane. Since then, I haven’t seen as many drop issues as we had collectively in the Discord that day, which is impressive since they opened up Beta more. I love football, I love NFTs, I want to love All Day; so I was ready for the marketplace to open and build out the collection.
Let’s start with a positive — the search capability is a real nice plus and upgrade over UFC or Candy at the moment. It’s not everything I’d want, but you can easily find and browse besides just a single player. You can search by badges, which having out of the gate is huge, along with things like team, play type, etc in addition to player. Personally, I used the team filter trying to see who my Ravens had there, since it was hard to keep track of week to week. It’s a mini Top Shot filter experience. The design itself is pretty clean, except the badges being barely visible. I get it, they want a more sleek look and less pop art colorish compared to Shots, but hell you can barely see the badges.
The pricing is honestly a bit lower than what I expected, but I think we are seeing this all around right now. The Dapper EcoSystem is starting to fight itself with Top Shot, UFC and All Day. Given the heavy activity on Top Shot with challenges, frequent packs and the most users; there is still a heavy amount of money flowing there in season. The UFC is doing the $500 Izzy giveaway right now, which is pulling money over to Strike, at least temporarily. Both NBA and UFC are in season (well UFC is never out of season), which also is going to draw more eyes. That leaves us with All Day. I do believe people sold off in Top Shot to fund some All Day starter money, but after a day and a half basically, we already see the classic race to the bottom on prices. Take a look at the Tom Brady debut or Josh Allen debut; both are down ~33% or more overnight, as are most moments. Granted, there are 10,000 mints of those, but the initial buying pressure slowed and now we see the undercut coming in. I don’t see the influx of cash hitting quick here with Top Shot and Strike both active. We had the initial buyers investing and scooping up deals, along with early collectors, but we already see a lot of sub $10 moments on the 10k, which it took Top Shot over a year to hit. People simply aren’t going to buy up and hold here without a clear direction or roadmap from All Day.
There are A LOT of marginal type players on here, so I think that is attributing to it. Personally, I sold off some of the more marginal moments I had to roll into some better players and I think a lot of people are doing the same. The checklist is deep, so the pricing on the more marginal players isn’t as surprising as seeing the drop on say the Mahomes moment under $50 already.
The other thing is, a lot of the common moments are fairly standard. I get it, they did the week to week highlight thing, but common moments are that — mostly common. Not the worst strategy in the world to keep the better plays at the premium tiers, but it doesn’t quite make you want to jump out of your seat to go get certain things. I wound up picking up the DK Metcalf Move the Chains 8k mint and it’s pretty much just that — a nice play over the middle for a first down. It’s an affordable Metcalf moment to get a share of the guy, but its basically just DK doing what he does multiple times a game.
The plus side here is there really could be value if you believe in the platform. Grabbing a debut from arguably the greatest football player of all time (at least this generation) for under $400? I’d have a hard time believing once the NFL kicks marketing in like we see with Top Shot that won’t turn out to be a deal on Tom Brady’s 10k(mandatory NFA DYOR). I think the opportunity to own star debuts at an accessible price could be good long term for the platform to get more people in, we just will have some growing pains early on as packs very well could be -EV and drive some negative energy early. I do think we got to a fairly stable price point on here fairly quick, because I can’t see this going much beyond the current pricing until we get a fresh tier of packs/player moments. There’s already a lot of rumblings on the pack price at $49 on Friday given the current floors.
The NFL is just going to need to fight for its share to reach or pass where Top Shot is. The NFL is king IRL, but in the NFT space, there is a lot of money and bags built on Top Shot that people may be a bit hesitant to jump right into All Day. Maybe more importantly, for those of us who have lived through the multiple Top Shot dips, what makes All Day immune? If the king is coming for the throne, they’re going to have to earn every dollar to take it AND keep it.
We ride at dawn.