The Secret Smoker

A short story to illustrate why Greater Manchester’s pledge to be carbon-zero by 2038, is sadly misleading, not that it goes far enough anyway.

There’s an old Man — let’s call him Mr Graham Manchester — who like all his friends, has been a smoker all his life.

It’s not his fault, he grew up that way, they all did.

He likes it. But he knows it’s bad for him.

He’s seen all the posters and warnings, made promises to his family and friends to quit — but not really done anything seriously about it before now.

But his kids have been on at him — and his grand-kids even went on strike! — so he decides he can’t ignore it any more.

He’s on about 15 million fags a year and worried about his health.

So he seeks out a top doctor, lets call her Dr Tyndall, who runs a full analysis of his health and advises him that while all is not lost, he must take urgent and decisive action.

Ideally, he would stop all together, right now.

But the doctor recognises that’s tough, so she devises an easy way for Mr G M to think about his choices.

‘You can smoke up to 71 million cigarettes but after that, one more will kill you,’ says Dr Tyndall.

‘But you can’t take forever to smoke ’em — because the damage is being done every time you light up.

‘So you need to have smoked all those cigarettes by 2038.

‘And if at all possible, you’d do it by 2025…

‘But I think you can stretch them out to 2038 as long as you cut down quickly and do loads of other healthy things too, like working in the garden and planting trees and stuff.

‘By 2038 you absolutely have to have stopped completely. Not one more cigarette can pass your lips — at least until 2100 anyway.’

By now, Mr G M is shaking his head gloomily.

The doctor understands — patients need help to break their addictions — so she puts it a more manageable way.

‘You can carry on as you are, and be dead in as little as four years. Or — if you cut down 14% of your cigarette use, every year for the next 19 years, you’ll make it. Doesn’t sound so bad, does it?’.

Mr G M perks up and says..

‘OK — I think I can do that, I just need to talk to my chums at the tobacco factory and the cigarette shop, and my other smoker pals, to see what they think about it’.

The doctor says: ‘Sure — but remember 71 million fags in total by 2038 AT THE LATEST or a rather nasty death from incurable lung cancer awaits you. I can’t tell you exactly when it will develop, or how quickly it will kill you, but it will’.

‘Your choice’.

Mr G M has a chat with his smoky chums, and they all agree that yes he can cut down.

But 14% a year for 19 years just isn’t possible…there are profits to be made and shareholders to be paid and they all rely on Mr G M’s daily habit, they rely on Mr G M killing himself - though he doesn’t like to think of it like that…

Because his smoky pals give him what he wants, what he needs…

He doesn’t bother asking his children or grandchildren what they think about this diagnosis, or discuss the impact on them, or what they might do to help.

Instead, he decides to surprise them with a big party.

He invites them all and lets them know he will be announcing his plan to get rid of the cancer-causing cigarettes from his life.

His family are excited — this time will be different, they’re sure.

The guests are all gathered, and Mr G M stands up to share his good news.

‘I know cancer is a terrible thing that effects everyone and everything,and that it’s these cigarettes that cause it.’

‘And I have seen the light!’

(‘no, not that sort’, he chuckles as one of his tobacco chums who helped pay for the party, surreptitiously offers a packet and a naked flame..).

‘Today, I announce — I will be cigarette-free by 2038!’.

Cue cheering all round; his kids are so happy, his teenage grand-kids even wave the banners they made to mark his fag-free achievement.

‘I know it sounds a long way off but I’ve taken the best doctor’s advice, to arrive at this science-based target.’

People smile and clap, and think ‘wow Mr G M is really leading the way for others of his generation’.

Then comes the caveat.

‘And in that time, I will only smoke 142 million cigarettes’.

The doctor, who is in the audience, scratches her head and checks her notes.

She takes him to one side, because it’s a breach of patient privilege to say this publicly.

‘Hang on,’ she whispers ‘I told you, you could only smoke 71 million by 2038 at the very latest or contract incurable cancer and die leaving your children and grandchildren in dire straights? 142m is double that.’

‘Yes I know’, says Mr G M ‘it’s a shame isn’t it. But by 2038, I will be a non-smoker!’

The doctor says -’what did your family say when you told them this was your decision?’

‘Ah, well I didn’t ask them,’ admits Mr G M.

‘Why not?,’ asks the doctor. ‘It’s their life too in a way. Maybe they could have helped if you gave them the facts? And besides, aren’t you kind of misleading them that their future is safe when in fact you aren’t going to be cigarette-free in time to avoid cancer?’

Mr G M nods but shrugs his shoulders.

‘I didn’t want to scare them because if they’re scared they might not be able to sleep. I didn’t want to make them angry because then they might blame me for smoking so many more than Dr Tyndall told me too.

‘And if I did now smoke far fewer cigarettes, or stop earlier — I’d have to be honest about the impact on them — coz they’ll probably have to pay for a fair bit of my expensive nicotine replacement medication, so it’s best not to tell them, best to keep it all positive.’

‘Besides, I think it’s the best I can do — I’m too scared to admit I can’t do more, that my failures in the past are what got me here, and too proud to ask for help’.

He turns and walks back to his smiling family, they’re so chuffed with him.

Looking at their faces, he realises he does feel a little guilty…

Not least because he hasn’t let on about the many million more cigarettes he’s smoking on the side, when he sneaks off to the airport.

Dr Tyndall didn’t include that in her analysis. So why should he?

He’s a non-smoker now.

Any resemblance to actual persons or facts is entirely deliberate as this story is a description of Greater Manchester’s Green Plan and its central promise to be carbon-zero by 2038 — and yet openly admit it will ‘spend double it’s carbon budget’ by then.

The facts as they stand today:-

• Greater Manchester has been ‘allocated’ a carbon budget by the UK’s leading climate-science lab, the Tyndall Centre. This means GM has 71m tonnes of Co2 to spend as its share of trying to keep the world to only 2 degrees of warming*
• (and the City of Manchester’s share of this 71m, is 15m tonnes)
• Put simply; 71m tonnes is all we’re to emit in GM by 2038 to do our bit
• We must then not emit any further carbon until 2100 (and to stick to that on current policies will have to invent ways to suck carbon out of the atmosphere)
• To achieve that 2038/71m tonne target, Tyndall recommends a 14% a year reduction in emissions in GM — starting immediately from summer 2018 when the report was delivered
• ie we are already almost through year one…with no cuts made
• 14% a year reductions, would achieve half our reductions in the first five years, a ‘front loading’ scientists say is crucial
• Only once in the past has GM achieved reductions on this scale (18% in 2014) — but that was due to changes in how energy was produced nationally, so an ‘on paper ’ only — actual emissions are rising every year
• If Greater Manchester carries on emitting at current levels, we will use up this 71 tonne budget within 4–10 years
• This 71 tonnes does not include any emissions from aviation and shipping
• Because Tyndall assumes these will be reduced through national regulation/government intervention in these sectors
• None of those interventions or regulations are being drafted yet let alone planned or implemented
• Indeed all UK airports including Manchester are planning for significant growth
• GM officials say they ‘cannot tackle airport emissions’ because it is a. not their remit and b. the public want to keep flying
• They continue to invest millions in it as a major shareholder, despite the fact airline emissions are among the largest proportion and most harmful
• Furthermore, they continue to back an expansion of millions of passenger flights per year, which will mean huge increases in emissions
• Those increased emissions are not accounted for in our ‘carbon budget’ of 71m tonnes nor Tyndall’s national aviation budget — so GM would have to reduce carbon in other areas to compensate ie we would need to find even greater cuts from the likes of housing and cars
• And of course, under this plan, we blow double the 71m tonne budget by 2038 anyway
• * NB the Paris agreement signed in 2015 by all the world’s governments committed countries to limit the world to 1.5 degrees warming — but lack of global action means we’re way past that and have revised the ambition to 2 degrees — and are currently heading to anything between 3 and 5 degrees of warming by the end of the century.

If YOU want a Green Plan that actually tackles the problem, meets our commitments under the Paris agreement, and moves GM faster, further — you may wish to sign this petition.

GM says it wants to be a leader on this front — but dozens of communities around the UK are already going far further, faster than we are.

The list of cities and towns committing to genuine carbon-neutrality by 2030 — in part by declaring an emergency — is growing every day and currently includes our fellow northern bedfellows of Leeds, York, Carlisle, Kendal and Preston.

It is time for our community to thank our leaders for this work, but to send it back, and create a new version, which we all shape via a citizens’ assembly, or other method of deliberative engagement, that shares the truth and empowers people to act on it, and can force change where it is needed.

In a partner post to this piece, I will analyse in the style of #‘TelltheTruth’ what the flawed Green Plan would entail for people in Greater Manchester (insufficient even as it is ) and how great are the wider systemic changes on which even it depends.