The first full Sunday slate is here, cue the music! Find below some of my favorite prop bets for Week 1 and best of luck to everyone. Remember it’s a marathon, not a sprint. Got 4+ months of NFL Sundays ahead of us so bet responsibly and stay hydrated. If interested, the data referenced in this post can be found here.
Antonio Gibson over 2.5 catches +100, over 18.5 receiving yards -120 (DraftKings)
With Sam Howell only making his second career start, I expect new OC Eric Bieniemy to help his young QB gain confidence with some quick, easy passes. Bieniemy even did this with a Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes last year:
🏈 Of quarterbacks with at least 200 passes last year, Mahomes ranked 2nd in YAC and 23rd of 33 in air yards/attempt
Even with a generational talent at QB, Bieniemy still simplified the game by having Mahomes get the ball out quickly and letting the Chiefs playmakers do the rest. This strategy should workout nicely for Washington against what is projected to be the worst front 7 in the league according to Sharp Football. Arizona is especially vulnerable when it comes to targeting running backs in the passing game.
Cardinals defense on passes to RB last season:
🏈32nd in yards allowed (810), EPA/Play (.05), completion % (83.5%), yards/attempt (6.7), touchdowns (6)
🏈 28th in yards after catch
Chiefs’ offense on passes to RB last year:
🏈 1st in EPA/play, explosiveness, and touchdowns, 2nd in yards/catch, 3rd in yards
🏈 From Week 9 on, they had the 4th most targets of all RB groups
Even though it’s a crowded backfield in Washington, Gibson stands out as the pass catching back. Brian Robinson only had 9 catches last season and rookie RB Chris Rodriguez had 5 last year in college. Gibson expects to be used a bit more in the passing game this year.
Also, Gibson anytime TD +210 on DK might be worth a sprinkle, as Jerrick McKinnon had the second most RZ targets on the Chiefs last year.
Dak Prescott over 13.5 rushing -115 (DK):
🏈 Giants’ defensive ranks on QB runs last year: 32nd in rushing explosive rate (39%), 31st in EPA/play (.52), and yards/carry
🏈 Giants defense ranked 1st in blitz rate (39.7%) and 6th in pressure rate (24.3 %)
🏈 His one game against the Giants last year, it was the most blitzed (18) and 2nd most pressure (32%) Dak saw in a game
🏈 Dak started to use his legs more towards the end of last year as he surpassed this number in 6 of the last 7 games, averaging ~22 rush yards/game (including playoffs)
Giants’ defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has gained the reputation of being a blitz happy coordinator. With Baltimore from 2018–21, Martindale blitzed at rates of 38.5% (third-most in the NFL). As a result, it leads the defense susceptible as QBs are forced to escape the pocket to evade the rush. I expect Dak to use his legs to evade the heavy rush he’ll face Sunday night in Met Life.
Anytime touchdowns:
Dallas Goedert +200 (FD):
🏈 Patriots ranked dead last in EPA/play against TE in red zone
🏈 Allowed 10 touchdowns on 19 red zone TE targets
🏈 Goedert ranked 2nd on Eagles in RZ targets last year with 10
Logan Thomas +470 (FD):
🏈 Cardinals ranked 25th EPA/play against TEs in red zone
🏈 Tied with Patriots allowing 10 red zone touchdowns to TE
🏈 Thomas ranked 3rd in RZ targets on WSH
Diontae Johnson +270 (FD):
As evident from the tweet above, Johnson is due for some positive regression in the touchdown department this year. His 16 red zone targets had him tied with the likes of Amari Cooper and A.J Brown who combined for 20 touchdowns. I think the Steelers make a concerted effort to get him one after getting shutout in this department last year.
Any other analysis you noticed from the article? Ideas for next posts? Please comment below or reply to me on Twitter at Tyler_FullSlate (@Tyler_FullSlate) / Twitter.
