Why a hard Brexit will deliver chaos
The air cargo industry faces massively complex legal and practical challenges if the UK opts for a hard Brexit, reports Justin Stares in Brussels, Belgium

If the British Government makes good on its threat to walk away from Brexit negotiations rather than sign up to a ‘bad deal’, stand by for some serious chaos. There simply is not enough time between now and March 2019 — when the UK leaves the European Union — to replace the web of complex agreements covering trade between mainland Europe and its soon-to-be former member.
Physical checks
The re-imposition of Customs controls would require additional space for physical checks — space that some airports do not have — as well as huge staff training programs. Many British government officials, and many smaller UK shippers, have no experience of trading with third countries.
But Customs — tariffs and quotas — is not the only issue. Phytosanitary rules and rules of origin checks would also need to be re- introduced. New bilateral air services agreements between the UK and a host of countries would need to be struck, and fast.
“If there is no deal, we would have very little time to prepare,” said Pauline Bastidon, who heads the UK Freight Transport Association’s office in Brussels. “There will be no transitional agreement by default.” A “full-on” hard Brexit, said Ms Bastidon, means “trouble”.
National European Union authorities today audit security at third country airports on behalf of the whole bloc (the UK audits Bangladeshi airports, for example). Would these audits remain valid after the UK crashes out? To remain under the aegis of the European Aviation Safety Agency (as Britain’s aviation industry desires) the UK would have to accept European law. Is this politically acceptable? Will Customs checks be possible off-airport? If UK airlines lose the right to fly freely between airports, what would be the impact on supply chains? Bookings can be made a year in advance, Ms Bastidon pointed out, meaning airlines could have to start facing down uncertainty as early as next March.
To avoid chaos, the air cargo industry and indeed the British transport industry in its entirety is praying for a transitional Brexit agreement. Under such a deal, the status quo would be preserved for a number of years while both sides came to grips with the UK’s departure. That way, the two parties can begin negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement in 2019.
Sensitive issues
But to get to negotiations on a transitional deal, several bridges need to be crossed. The European Commission is insisting that the more sensitive issues: rights for EU citizens, the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the UK’s Brexit invoice, are settled first. If the EU demands dozens of billions of euros as the price for departure and refuses to budge, talks could collapse, along with all hopes of a transitional deal.
The UK Transport in Europe group, which represents companies including Virgin, is preparing, at least mentally, for the worst.
“We are arguing that the UK has to expect World Trade Organization rules for goods from April 1, 2019, because at the moment that is what the EU are telling us,” said Mark Watts, the group’s Brussels-based spokesman. “Cargo operations between UK and EU 27 will be particularly hard hit”. Like the FTA, UKTiE is lobbying in Brussels for a transitional agreement.
