To follow up on Trump’s decision to sit out the debate yesterday (which I think was smart, and will result in a victory in Iowa on Monday), I wanted to refer back to “Systems and Decisions”. Most specifically:

“In the near term, while the ratio between amount of information and capacity to process it remains high, we should expect to see a dominance of the manager mindset. As a result, decisions will be made with less complete information and perspectives, creating near-term volatility. However, because this decision making is occurring in a system, we can also plan to counter it. As such, in the near term, winners will systematically approach idiosyncratic behavior. This requires the rigorous evaluation of controversial or unexpected decisions, and the methodical integration of them into one’s strategy.

I believe Trump’s actions yesterday fit this model. In my opinion, given the sentiment and hype-driven nature of the primaries, they are a series of near-term contests. Although Trump often gives the impression of being completely off the cuff and reactionary, I believe his actions are operating within a carefully considered, systematically idiosyncratic strategy.

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