Back In The Saddle: The 2018 Academy Awards Brouhaha
Apparently, I didn’t do one of these last year, because I didn’t like the 2016 crop of movies. Well, 2017 is another story! I’ve already taken it upon myself to see 6 out of 9, and I’ve got #7 queued up On Demand to watch this weekend!
But first, since I keep bringing these posts to new sites — I’ve been doing them forever now — here’s a rundown of prior Academy Awards Brouhaha’s:
2017
2016: Before & After
2015: Before & After
2014: Before & After
2013: Before & After
2012: Before & After
2011: Before & After
2010: Before & After
2009: Before & After
2008: Before & After
2007: Before & After
I love movies and I love the Oscars. I couldn’t give a shit about the Grammys or the Globes, and I read about the Emmy’s but almost never watch. Only the Oscars do I drag my ass in front of the TV and watch the whole boring spectacle. It’s simultaneously the best and the worst; the Oscars really are the perfect metaphor for life itself.
Most years, I have good intentions. I truly WANT to watch all the Best Picture nominees, but I usually fall one or two (or a few) short. I believe there’s only been one or two times where I’ve actually managed to see them all before the telecast (one of them involved a tumultuous trip to Blockbuster Video, to give you an idea of how old I am and how obsessed I can be). This year, I’m so close, and I have so much free time, I’ll be really upset if I don’t see all 9.
I also like to do our work’s Oscar pool, even though I’ve only won it once. You want a sneaky way to do great against a bunch of rubes? Just look at the fucking Vegas odds; they almost always do a good job.
For this post, I like to predict the winners BEFORE looking at the Vegas odds, as well as tell you which movies/people I think SHOULD win. So, pretty much like almost every other Oscar preview article on the Internet. Let’s get going.
Best Picture
The nominees are as follows; the ones with an asterisk (*) are the ones I’ve already seen:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour *
Dunkirk *
Get Out
Lady Bird *
Phantom Thread
The Post *
The Shape of Water *
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri *
Yeah, so I haven’t seen Get Out yet, I’M SORRY! I’ve somehow avoided all major spoilers, except for the fact that there’s apparently something to spoil, but that’s the one that’s on HBO On Demand right now, so I’ll get to it this weekend.
Since I moved back home and have the long commute every day, I’ve spent a lot of Fridays after work going to films, to pass the time until rush hour is less onerous. That’s how I’ve seen most of these movies, and that’s how I plan to see Phantom Thread this week. I don’t have high hopes that I’m going to enjoy this one, but I generally love Paul Thomas Anderson movies, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised. I’ve literally never heard of Call Me By Your Name, but … it doesn’t look like my cup of tea. Nevertheless, I shall seek it out in the name of completionism!
Of the movies I have seen, Dunkirk was my favorite. In fact, I just re-watched it at home this past weekend, and it’s still great! It’s also fun to pick up on the little things you might’ve missed the first time around, after you understand what Nolan is doing with the timeline.
Darkest Hour, I thought, was a nice companion piece to Dunkirk. Obviously Gary Oldman was excellent, and I gained a lot of perspective about the time period, but I wouldn’t expect it to win.
I thought the tagline to The Shape Of Water should’ve been: Mute Lady Fucks Swamp Thing. I dunno, maybe I was in the wrong kind of mood when I saw it; maybe the woman who reeked of B.O. sitting right next to me took me out of it; or maybe it’s just a shitty movie I never need to watch again. I can’t decide.
I thought The Post was fine. The acting was good, the story was compelling, it’s got a ton of great people in it. But, you know, it didn’t blow me away. I do like the message it beats over your head though: as the American public, it’s fine to be suspicious, but focus your attention on the government — regardless of who’s in power — and not the “mainstream media”. They’re still doing God’s work, trying to get the truth out there. No, they don’t always get it right, but they’re still all we’ve got.
I liked Lady Bird an awful lot. Of the ones I’ve seen, it’s Lady Bird and Dunkirk as my personal favorites. I also have the world’s hugest crush on Saoirse Ronan (who has done, like, a million great movies, and is only going to be 24 later this year). I couldn’t take my eyes off of her, except when Laurie Metcalf was on screen, because she’s an absolute treasure and one of the more underrated actors working today.
Finally, I have a lot of thoughts about Three Billboards. For starters, I thought the acting across the board was excellent. Obviously, the three stars (McDormand, Rockwell, and Harrelson), but all the others as well. I thought the premise was terrific, and I was totally enrapt throughout with the story. I like how none of the characters are perfect; sure there’s the person you root for (McDormand), but she can also be a real cunt. And sure, there’s the villain (Rockwell), but I thought his redemption arc was well done. I’m not interested in all the directions it didn’t go, when it comes to race and other social issues it brings up; but holy hell the ending. (SPOILERS) That movie could’ve wrapped up perfectly if the guy in the bar was the guy who raped & killed McDormand’s daughter. At the same time, it would’ve been VERY intense to see them get to Idaho and confront that guy over whoever he did rape and/or kill. Ultimately, I thought this movie would’ve been better served as a limited TV show. Let all the characters breathe, and come up with an honest-to-goodness resolution after 6 or 8 or 10 episodes. But, ultimately I came away with blue balls. Which, if you’re in the camp of Always Leave Them Wanting More, then they succeeded. But, that movie could’ve been an all time great for me if they’d just picked an ending instead of stopping in medias res. (END SPOILERS)
It’s that reason why I don’t think Three Billboards will come away with the Oscar. My big concern is The Shape Of Water will take the top prize, because I feel like that movie has a lot of support by a lot of people. There’s no movie that really deals with Old Hollywood, so that opens things up. I think Lady Bird could be a real dark horse candidate. But, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say The Post takes it down. Like I said before, there’s nothing very special about it, but I could see a lot of different movies getting a lot of support and splitting the vote, and I could see something like The Post — in the climate of 2017/2018 — sort of winning by default. Ranking pretty high on a lot of ballots, but maybe not ranking #1 in all that many.
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
This is a tough one. Guillermo del Toro won for the Globes, so he’s the obvious favorite. I’ll say this, though, the only other person here even nominated for a Globe was Nolan; we’ve got three wild cards in our midst! And, to be frank, it wouldn’t shock me to see Greta Gerwig win this one. The movie was excellent (the more I think about it, the more I think this could be Lady Bird’s year), the direction was wonderful, and the time is right. I don’t know how many women have won Best Director, but I know it’s not many. Probably count the total on one hand, right? It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Peele take this one, but I think he’ll get his in the writing category. My pick would be Nolan for Dunkirk, but I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict Gerwig wins.
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq
Wow, I’ve only seen the one. 4/5 of these guys were nominated for the Golden Globe for Drama Actor, with Kaluuya in there for “Musical or Comedy” Actor. Oldman won the Globe for Drama (Franco for Musical or Comedy), so he’s obviously the favorite. I can’t imagine Denzel wins, as I heard that movie sucked. I just don’t see Phantom Thread as being much of a crowd-pleaser, though I could see Day-Lewis getting support for this supposedly being his final film role ever, but he’s already won multiple times, so that seems excessive. I think Kaluuya could be a dark horse, but my pick and prediction has to go to Oldman.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
I haven’t seen I, Tonya yet, but I can’t imagine Robbie would win here. McDormand won for Drama Actress at the Globes, and Ronan won for Musical or Comedy, so figure this is a 2-woman race. My pick is obviously Ronan, but my prediction is that McDormand wins.
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Rockwell won the globe here, but Harrelson wasn’t even nominated. That’s a tough draw for him, as I could see votes being split. I heard Dafoe was excellent in The Florida Project, so I wouldn’t necessarily count him out. Go ahead and count Richard Jenkins out though. I haven’t seen All the Money in the World, but I’m sure Plummer is excellent. I’m gonna stick with Rockwell as my pick and prediction.
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Allison Janney is great in everything, so I’m sure she’s great in I, Tonya too. But, she wins literally everything and I’d like to see the love spread around. Octavia Spencer is also great in everything, but there wasn’t a lot to do with her role in The Shape Of Water, so I dunno. I haven’t seen Mudbound, but I could see Blige as a dark horse here. My pick is obviously Metcalf and I’m gonna make her my prediction too. I think enough people have seen this movie, so they know she knocked it out of the park.
Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I feel like this has to be a 2-movie race between Get Out and Lady Bird. I liked The Big Sick an awful lot, and I think it deserves to be nominated, but the others are in another league. I think The Shape Of Water will win a lot of the technical awards, but probably not here. I think Three Billboards will win a lot of the acting awards, but again, probably not here. My pick is Lady Bird, but my prediction is Get Out takes it. Gonna be cool to see Jordan Peele up there.
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
I liked Logan a lot, but nah. I also liked Molly’s Game a lot, but again, nah. I just can’t imagine The Disaster Artist wins this one either, so we’re talking about a race between Mudbound and Call Me By Your Name. I think Call Me By Your Name gets shut out of a lot of things, but makes up for it here. My choice would be for Logan, but my prediction is Call Me By Your Name.
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I don’t normally get into the Editing type categories, but I wanted to talk about Baby Driver, my favorite movie of 2017. I ultimately think Dunkirk wins this award, but I think Baby Driver absolutely SHOULD win this award, and I’ll be sad when it doesn’t. Same goes for both of the Sound categories (though, I think Baby Driver does have a puncher’s chance in those ones).
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
I’m usually pretty good at this one, so I’m gonna go ahead and say Dunkirk wins (it’s also my pick), but I could see The Shape Of Water being a dark horse here.
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Give it to Star Wars and call it a day.
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Give it to Coco and call it a day.
Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape Of Water won the Globe for this, and it wouldn’t shock me if it won here too. But, I just have to say, having seen all of these but one, that the score for Dunkirk is the only one that really stood out to me. There’s so much tension in that movie, and the score plays PERFECTLY to everything that’s going on, ramping up that edge-of-your-seat feeling. I absolutely think it should win, though my predicition is The Shape Of Water takes it.
Oscars are March 4th! I can’t wait. I’ll let you know how I did with my Vegas picks, how my predictions here shaped up, and give kind of an overview of all things movies in 2017. The wrap-up awaits!
