Will Turkey be Taken Off the Thanksgiving Table?

Caught between Russia and the United States, Turkey’s relations with the West have been rocky for months.

Will there be any chance for improving these strained relations?

Andrew Brunson’s Terrible, Very Bad, No Good Year

On July 18th President Trump sent out a tweet directed at the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, about U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson. Brunson was jailed in Turkey for nearly 17 months for alleged connections with Fethullah Gulen — — accused of starting the failed coup against Erdogan two years ago.

Many U.S. based law groups find no evidence against the pastor, and analysts believe that Brunson is being used as a bargaining chip to force the United States to send over Gulen for a prisoner exchange. With this attention-grabbing event, we are reminded of how relations between the two NATO allies is at its lowest point in decades.

Since Turkey’s state of emergency was called in 2016 after the failed coup d’état, Turkey’s actions are veering away from the US and towards other regional powers.

It has taken several steps that question the motivations of its foreign policy, and have pressured the U.S. Congress to sanction the longtime ally.

A Different Style of Arms Race

In December of 2017, Russia and Turkey agreed to the purchase of Russian S-400 long range, missile defense systems over the American Patriot system. While Turkey asserts that the S-400 purchase serves for a more independent foreign policy, stauncher security, and financial benefits, there seems to be a fundamental concern between Western Powers and Turkey in defense exchange.

Turkish news source TRT World describes Turkey’s complications with past arms deals:

“In 2006, Turkey failed to make a deal with American companies to produce joint attack helicopters. The US refused to give Turkey the codes. This purchase will let Turkey acquire “know-how” and allow a transfer of technology. Turkey does not want to be dependent on Western-originated weapons in the defense industry. Thus, it wants to create diversity in defense as well as in energy.”

This also isn’t the first time the United States and Turkey have clashed over defense purchases. TRT World continues in their article that:

“In 2013, Turkey launched a tender aiming to purchase defense systems. A Chinese company, (CPMIEC), suggested the most affordable price, but America forced Turkey to drop the deal by saying that the company had been sanctioned by the US for alleged missile sales to Iran.”

Now, Turkey’s flirtation with Russia didn’t please the United States. Washington believes that Russian defense systems won’t be able to mesh with NATO defenses, and as a consequence of the disagreement, Washington postponed the delivery of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey.

Although Washington D.C.’s reasoning seems justified, it’s Middle Eastern counterpart seems to not care. According to Sputnik International, a Russian news source, Turkey may purchase Russian Su-57 fighter jets instead.

Turkey’s ease to negotiate with Russia instead of the U.S should be evidence to foreign policy analysts that Turkey, which boasts the second largest army in NATO, will not be easy to appease.

Conflicting Motivations in Syria

The United States’ primary way of exerting force in Syria has been through Kurdish forces. Against Turkish interests, the United States armed and trained militias including the YPG (People’s Protection Units), and although reports stated that Washington has promised to stop providing weapons to the YPG, the damage has been done.

Turkey, before Washington promised to stop providing weapons to the YPG, went on the offensive in Northern Syria, specifically in Afrin. Turkey’s concern stems from the deep connection between the YPG and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which Turkey and the United States both view as a terrorist organization.

Just on April 4th this year the heads Turkey, Russia, and Iran held a high-level meeting discussing the future of Syria which strengthens indications towards rapidly increasing Russo-Turkish relations.

The clash of Turkish and Western interests in Syria presents yet another obstacle the West and Turkey have to solve in order to achieve less friction.

The Big Picture

Turkey remains an unpredictable state within NATO and the Middle East. In order to restore relations, the United States must evaluate its moves carefully and act accordingly. On Turkey’s part, balancing between NATO and Russia presents a very fine line in which Turkey must be very careful not to cross.

Originally published at rootpolicy.org on July 22, 2018.