A conspiracy theory… Trump, Syria and those Russians

First off, a mea culpa, I’m not normally a conspiracy nut. I don’t hate Russia, I find them wholly rationale if morally ambiguous. I’m not even much of a writer. But here I am about to post to medium to air out my conspiracy theory with little in the way of factual underpinnings and feeling pretty good about it. This new internet age you might say.

So here goes… I woke up this morning to the news that Trump had ordered a missile strike on the Syrian Airbase from which as the theory goes the chemical weapons attack was launched. Shortly thereafter, I got a message from a friends bemoaning the fact that Assad had just handed Trump a gift… one that made him look presidential and distracted from his problems back home. I was initially sceptical but the more I followed the news coverage and world reaction to it and I began to see his point.

Then I started getting into the conspiratorial thinking… my normal devil’s advocacy mode. I could not even understand why the Syrian regime saw fit to make this attack. It’s not like chemical weapons are particularly effective on the battlefield, their value is far more psychological than physical. Hence the reason modern militaries are quite happy to eschew their use while maintaining the use of arguably more harmful weapons like cluster munitions and air-burst mines. In addition, with the Trump administration’s stated preference to ignore the Assad question, the Russian backing that had helped the regime turn the tide of the war and conquer Aleppo, Assad could hardly have been in a more advantageous position than at any time in the six years of that morass… so why risk all that with a PR nightmare of a strike with dubious military and strategic value.

Sure the regime had been allegedly using low level Chemical weapons but these were hardly proven and could easily be barrel bombs with stuff thrown in it or just gas grenades.. ghastly but hardly stuff that would shake the world out of its collective inactivity on Syria. Also it is worth remembering that after Obama’s red line was obliterated and the US failed to act decisively, the Russians had stepped in to guarantee the regimes safety by claiming they would dismantle the regimes stockpiles and stop them from using it, which had both provided diplomatic cover for Obama to do nothing but also in a way blocked him from working up the nerve to act unilaterally after the US allies including Britain had stated they would not join in a campaign against the regime.

So with my thinking on this idiotic own goal by the Syrian regime and the US strike that one could argue was certain to follow, my conspiracy crystallised… This is actually a Russian plot to help Trump!

Consider the evidence, US presidents, no matter how unpopular at home, always get a bump in popularity and look more presidential when conducting foreign wars and acting as the Commander in Chief. Bush Jnr. certainly took mad advantage of this. Furthermore, I have read articles from strategic journals that maintain that Putin really does not care much about Syria. Russia’s Syria campaign, is about Russian interests… projecting might, playing to internal politics, saving Russia’s last naval and air bases and thus its ability to project force in a vital and conflicted part of the world than it is with any deep alliance or affinity for the Syrian people and Arabs at large. The Russian air force’s indiscriminate bombing campaign were there is very little effort to avoid hitting civilians show how the Russian’s regard Arab lives and one could argue lives in general.

So Putin would have no compunction in his long strategic game, honed by his years as an FSB operative, in sacrificing a few Syrian civvies or even the Assad regime in order to keep his puppet in play.

Now the other element of the conspiracy theory… the way the US domestic political winds have gone since Trump took over. The Russian enquiry is gathering steam, any collusion seems like it will be found out and more importantly, in that shrill heated environment, Trump cannot be openly seen to do anything in Russia’s interest. Certainly there is no way the sanctions are going to be lifted and there is a risk that DJT’s administration may even unravel if the allegations gain collusion. Trump is deeply unpopular, even his support amongst his base is wavering all amidst the Russian question.

So what is Putin to do… his play to put in a helpful US administration appears to be going south. So he has it.. simple, get the Trump administration to appear to be going against Russian interest while not actually going against Russian interests… with the Trump administration in place Assad isn’t very important because the US will probably not actively curtail Russian influence or assets in the middle east. So have Assad’s regime or some elements use chemical weapons to draw the world’s ire and create an opportunity for Trump to hit the trifecta — one up Obama by attacking Syria in stark contrast to what happened the last time Syria used those weapons, seem to be taking a harsh and military stance against Russia’s interests, look presidential and regain favour with the base and distract from your domestic issues.

All the while, the US military of course has to inform Russia through the de-confliction channel thus allowing them to move all hardware out of the way and Russia did not intervene.

The last part of my theory is the theatre. Russia acts outraged… suspends cooperation with de-confliction although that is of course nonsense… the US has the capability to see where the Russians are going and avoid them without all the tete-a-tete. They howl and make a fuss and the US public buys the whole narrative that Trump is standing up and doing rather than analysing or talking as the Obama administration is accused of doing. The enquiries of the US administration then lose steam, no one wants to undermine a C-in-C at war, and people move on. Long after people move on, Russia capitulates and comes sheepishly (it seems) back to line, resumes cooperation etc. Trump is now in position to fulfil his end of any bargain struck with his backers in Moscow and hopefully for them quietly enough that no one really notices.

That’s my theory of the current events… yeah I like it.. sufficiently far fetched in a ‘Pelican brief’ kind of way.