Newsletter: Signs of Economic Recovery
Jul 24, 2017 · 2 min read
“Our path to progress and abundance is clear. The tools are in place and the resilient, resourceful and hardworking Nigerian people are set to go. I have no doubt that by the grace of God, the bleakness of recession is about to witness the uplifting dawn of abundance.”
Acting President Yemi Osinbajo, June 12, 2017
- Headline inflation has now fallen for the fifth successive month (February to June)
- The Naira has stabilised against the dollar; and the margin between the Interbank and parallel market rates has narrowed considerably
- The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSEASI) has seen dramatic gains in recent months (now about 20% higher than beginning of 2017 value). This surge is largely attributable to the new Investors and Exporters Window (NAFEX) introduced by the Central Bank in April.
- Nigeria’s FX reserves have proved stable in recent months, even against a backdrop of continuing CBN intervention in the FX market
- The new Investors and Exporters Window (NAFEX) has picked up momentum and powered a turnaround in investor sentiments related to the FX market. The Window has traded around $3.8 billion since it launched on April 24. (Roughly a third of this volume has been supplied by the Central Bank)
- Nigeria’s Crude oil production has improved appreciably, coming in at 2.05 million barrels per day in June 2017
- According to the NNPC’s May 2017 Operations Report, average daily gas supply to Nigeria’s power plants has risen by 64 per cent, compared to a year ago (May 2016)
- On account of rising exports and falling imports, Q1 2017 was the second consecutive quarter of positive trade balance (i.e. exports greater than imports), after four quarters of negative balance.
- Central Bank data from June 2017 showed a rise in Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a measure of the health of the manufacturing economy — for the third consecutive month.
- According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in Q1 2017 exports of Agricultural goods grew in value by 82% compared to Q4 2016. And Manufactured goods exports in Q1 2017 were 45% more than the value in Q4 2016.
- Q1 2017 saw the fourth consecutive rise in exports since Q1 2016; amounting to a 109% increase year on year.
