EOY Forex Plans and Projections

The Charter
Nov 3 · 4 min read

This is a briefing about my EOY expectations and plans which I think is meaningful for investors to know what is in my mind. This will be an HTF analysis including DXY, 10 Year T-Notes and 10 Year Yields.

DXY Chart Daily TF

Starting with the DXY chart. The recent run was expected by me since the beginning of the year and I shared it on Tradingview before it happened. I got my targets reached with the latest rally on DXY and I think it is the time for sell-off on this one. It was having untouched points on the upside and it is filled this year. The latest rejection from Daily Bearish Orderblock has signaled the market shift to the bearish side for me. During the rally, DXY left too many GAPs behind as I mentioned on Twitter every time it left them and expected them to be filled later on. This is a typical move for every asset, first create GAPs during the rally/sell-off and tricks traders to short the wrong side with the expectation of a GAP fill. In the end, it completes whole move and goes another way hard. It is the same in that case, after the rally, it has dumped aggressively into first GAP and retraced little last week to complete another retest to go further down. Since we are in the last two months of the year, expect low volatility and less sharp moves. Markets will define a new yearly range during these two months and it is safe to say that Futures contracts are heavily decreased as lowest in 18 Months. During those times it is the safest to take least trades and risk to provide any loss due to low volatility and choppy market. That will be my strategy for my investors and my own portfolio, to prevent any unnecessary loss of profits that we made during the year. For newcomers, I expect them to be patient and understand the low volatility will harm balances if I push any trades at this stage. This DOES NOT mean that I won’t be taking any trades for the last two months, instead, I will be seeking opportunities and if there are any I will make sure I take them. After Christmas and new year events, there will be much more volatility and opportunities.

10 Year T-Note Futures Daily TF

Moving onto 10 Year T-Notes, this chart is highly correlated with DXY since they move together. At this stage, T-Notes are also looking like topped out on the last run after it hit the Bearish OB. It also created several GAPs during the rally and I am looking for a pullback on this one as well. This is the thing short term investors are looking at and when this pulls back it won’t be good for DXY and increase the weakness for the coming months. It is important to consider these to analyze DXY from a macro perspective. I analyze these assets weekly to have a solid understanding of the markets. It is inversely correlated with its Yields and in contrast to that one long term investors look for Yields to rise and they are not doing well.

10 Year Treasury Note Yield Monthly TF

See the chart above, this one is on the Monthly TF to give a better perspective on the longer term. In contrast to DXY, it is close to making another low of all time and for long term investors, it is not attractive. Since DXY is looking like it’s out of gas for this year, I am expecting this to highly effect DXY in terms of bearishness and weakness. It is likely to see a lowest low on this one soon.

As a whole, these ideas do support each other and I do stand on them when I make decisions, additionally, I analyze markets every week on Sunday to stay updated with the most recent information available to take opportunities unbiased. This means that even my long term analysis varies I’ll be staying up to date and will share my new ideas as time goes on. For now, I expect my projections to play out for the coming months. I will be sharing results and updates.

This one was a long one but deeply explained. Be careful don’t get chopped. Investors are relaxed.

Have a nice week all

The Charter

The Charter

Written by

No ‘if’ included. Fund Manager. Contact: info@thecharter.pro Website: thecharter.pro

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