German AfD Stand to Win Sunday’s Election
– And by win, I mean first place. We predict the AfD will win first place with over 25% of the vote. Read our analysis.
A lot of people have been talking about the AfD doing well on Sunday, but not too well. There seems to be a concerted effort to play down their chances.
As unified as the American MSM media is against Trump, the German MSM is unified against the AfD. This shouldn’t be surprising, because their positions are similar. Trump values the West, but quite clearly states that Americans need to put America first.
Petry and the AfD naturally want to put Germany first. And as we reported back in March, they are doing a fantastic job.
Also back in March they beat all expectations, especially in the East. In fact, while the polls in nearby Sachsen-Anhalt had them at 18%, they actually won with over 24%. That’s a six point increase over the prognoses of multiple polling agencies.
The same polls clearly overstated the support of the CDU––and vastly overstated the support of their Liberal coalition partners, the SPD.
Now we’re told that the AfD is polling at 23% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. This is also a former Eastern State, and one of the most beautiful areas of Germany. The locals endearingly call it Meck-Pomm. The left wing/globalist Economist calls it a backwater — apparently because as they also mention, it is the heartland of the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
This “backwater” is coincidently also home to the electoral district of Chancellor Angela Merkel. And there is obviously no lost love there. It made international headlines that her party has slipped into third place, and the AfD is now clearly ahead of the CDU and the second largest party with 23%.
The humiliation for Merkel likely won’t stop there. The truth is that the poll numbers for the AfD have been climbing steadily upwards, and it isn’t a secret how pissed off people are about Merkel’s migration policies. What is vastly downplayed though, is how far off the projections were in the last elections.
The polls show the liberal coalition partners of Merkel at 28% and the AfD at 22-23%. Only 5–6% separate the two top parties.
Again, in neighboring Sachsen-Anhalt as noted above, they underestimated the AfD by 6% and overestimated support for the SPD by between 4–6%. They were off by over 10-12% on forecasting the AfD/SPD results.
So if the polling is only half as bad (or corrupted) as last time, AfD wins 1st place.
We think the AfD will pull it off and get first place, with between 26 and 28% of the vote. SPD will come in second around 25% and the CDU will come in a humiliating 3rd, maybe even under 20%.
Could it happen? People are incredibly upset about the decisions being made by the Grand Coalition of the SPD/CDU. A Grand Coalition ostensibly of left and right, but in reality, they represent nothing and nobody beyond their own interests to stay in power.
Merkel’s popularity is plummeting. Brexit was passed in spite of all the nay sayers. And even the overly tolerant Germans can only take so many idiotic assertions of nativism in face of Germany’s skyrocketing problems and as Germany’s migrant Rape Crisis spirals out of control.
Patriots and populists are on the rise all over Europe, and Germany is no exception. This chart offers an overview of where things are and a good indication of where things are going.
And after that, the State elections in Berlin are just a couple of week later, and that’s where it gets really interesting. To be continued…
