Are we heading for World War III? A response to Tobias Stone
John
18431

If you want to get real with your assertion that human warfare is not periodic in any sense, we should begin with that wonderful list of wars cited near the end of your piece. At 940 events, we have enough data to determine, in lives lost, the intensity of each of those conflicts, and whether or not that intensity fits a power law — I’d even go so far as to venture that it fits a very specific power law — Zipf’s Law. And if it does, then we begin to admit that yes, human history can be predicted. We may not be very good at it, but we aren’t very good at predicting when the next earthquake, asteroid strike, or volcanic eruption may occur — and yet we can forecast them and watch for them all the same, knowing that statistically, we are overdue.

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