Raptors at the half: Revisiting old predictions
Though mired in a slump the Raptors have met even the loftiest of expectations in the first half of the 2014–2015 season.
Hard times have fallen upon Raptor Nation and the Raptors, losers in 7 of their last 10 games, have shown no signs of putting the pieces back together yet. There was hope that the Raptors could get it together on Sunday as they were fresh off of a productive players-only meeting and were poised to take on a New Orleans Pelicans team that was missing their starting Point Guard and their all-world forward, Anthony Davis. Unfortunately that hope began to fade as the Pelicans took a game that on paper they had no business winning. Raptor fans no longer watch games hoping the Raptors blow a team out enough to get Bruno Caboclo in the game; they just want the ‘W’. Things are indeed bad, very bad, but if you read Toronto Raptors Twitter you’d think Armageddon was upon us when that’s clearly not the case. To attempt to neutralize the pessimism I invite you to join me on a trip back into the past: October 22nd, 2014. This was a week prior to the season and on this day I made 20 predictions for the Raptors 20th season:
1. The Raptors will win 50+ games.
If somebody told you this time last year that Toronto would be heading into its 41st game with a 26–14 record you would most definitely take that and run with it. At worst the Raptors will finish with a 26–15 record through 41 games — on pace for 52 wins. Look for the Raptors to get back on track as they still have many games to play vs. the struggling/tanking Atlantic division.
2. The Raptors will win the Atlantic division.
This was almost a given, unless you were a Knick fan. The Sixers blatant tanking, the Celtics and Knicks joining them along with Brooklyn’s mediocrity make this one of the most uninteresting division races in a long time. Long live the Titanic division.
3. The Raptors will capture the 3rd seed in the East.
The Raps actually led the conference for over a month before their struggles, combined with Atlanta’s dominance over the entire league dropped them to third — just percentage points ahead of Chicago. The Raptors may very well finish there as they should be able to pass the Wizards and will likely be passed by the Bulls at some point.
4. The Raptors will make the Eastern Conference Finals.
This is probably the worst time to discuss this one. If this question were asked a month ago many Raptor fans would agree whole-heartedly. At a time like this however? Raptor fans would think this is nuts. It’s not though. Despite the current struggles, this is something that is still very much in play. In the East, only the Atlanta Hawks have really played better ball consistently than the Raptors have this season.
5. The Raptors will improve their offensive efficiency rank but regress in their defensive efficiency rank.
In 2013/2014 the Raptors finished 9th in defensive and offensive efficiency. The scoring punch provided off of the bench by Lou Williams and the improvements from Kyle Lowry have helped raise the Raptors to the 3rd most efficient offense in the league however as predicted the Raptors have regressed defensively, where they are tied for the 21st most efficient defense in the NBA. The inability to contain the ball off of drives and giving opponents easy baskets via turnovers have done the Raptors no favors in this area.
6. The Raptors will have a winning record vs the Western Conference.
Once upon a time, the Toronto Raptors were playing great ball. They went into Los Angeles and smacked the Clippers around; they went into Denver on the second night of a back-to-back and gutted one out vs. the Nuggets. They then went on to compete in a hotly contested overtime game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers. The Raptors promptly went on to get murdered by the Warriors and Suns and with all that said they currently own a winning 9–7 record vs. the Western conference and are playing competitive ball.
7. The Raptors will lose the season series vs the Charlotte Hornets… again.
Ugh… just… ugh! 0–1 …
8. The Raptors will improve on its pace from a year ago.
Last season the Raptors measured pace was 94.4 (possessions a team uses per game). This season the Raptors are playing at a slightly quicker pace (96.1) as predicted. It’s very likely the pace would have been slower or the same if not for the DeRozan injury — the Raptors played in a lot more of free-flowing games without their leading free throw shooter in the game to slow the tempo of the game down.
9. The Raptors will face a large fine for some sort of ‘Drake activity’ this season.
Well… this hasn’t happened… yet. This doesn’t mean however that the Raptors ambassador hasn’t made headlines this season though. There was some Twitter noise directed at the rapper after he had yet to throw his support behind the Kyle Lowry #NBABallot movement. Drake eventually posted on his Instagram account but he forgot to put #NBABallot in his caption. I guess he hasn’t been listening to Matt Devlin call Raptor games lately…
10. Kyle Lowry will maintain his production from last season proving that it was not a contract year.
Well, so far this has been wrong and Raptor fans are probably very happy that this prediction is wrong so far as well. Despite his current struggles, Kyle Lowry has not only maintained his production but he has improved on what was a career year last season. Lowry is now an MVP candidate averaging 19.8 PPG and 7.7 APG and has kept the team afloat while the team lost DeMar DeRozan for 21 games to injury.
11. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan will make the all-star game.
Though this will not happen this season, there was a very good chance of this happening if DeRozan did not get injured. It’s very likely the coaches vote Lowry in if he is not voted in by the fans so the Raptors will have two all-stars — they just won’t be in the same season. Perhaps next year…
12. DeMar DeRozan will average 25+ PPG.
Well, this was a bit hopeful. Through 19 games DeRozan is averaging just less than 20 points per game. DeMar’s production will likely hover around this point the rest of the way and that’s a good thing. Kyle Lowry has stepped up and taken on a huge load in his absence and the Raptors now employ a ‘professional scorer’ to help take the burden off of the starting backcourt.
13. The Raptors backcourt will make the All-NBA third team.
If the season ended today this would not happen due to DeRozan’s injury and Lowry’s stellar play may even land him on the All-NBA second team. There is still another half of season to play but DeRozan will be hard pressed — especially with the great guard play in the NBA this season.
14. Terrence Ross will be in the discussion for the NBA’s Most Improved Player.
If you want to make a Raptor fan laugh; repeat out loud to their face prediction #14. Coming into his third season Terrence Ross was expected to make that jump. Instead he has been a huge disappointment. Ross’ struggles and inconsistencies continue to be one of the most prevailing Raptor headlines of the season to date. The NBA is unforgiving however so Terrence Ross must gain confidence back by focusing on the things he does best: three point shooting and using his length and athleticism to be disruptive on the defensive end of the floor.
15. Jonas Valanciunas will average a double-double.
Another dominating story line in Raptorland is the play, and utilization of Jonas Valanciunas. The third year center has shown mixed flashes of dominance with mind numbing moments that make fans scratch their heads. Jonas is currently averaging 12.6 PPG/8.4 RPG so while he is not at that double-double mark it is still very much in play. Coach Dwayne Casey needs to keep him on the floor long enough to make that sort of impact, but that’s a whole different story.
16. The Raptors will look to move Landry Fields this season.
It has been very interesting season for Landry Fields. He has gone from being an afterthought, to a key starter on a Raptor team without its all-star, back to being an afterthought. Unfortunately due to injury Landry’s biggest asset is his contract — a $6M expiring contract. He hasn’t been moved yet however with the Eastern conference and the entire NBA seemingly wide open teams are already making moves on the trade market. GM Masai Ujiri will definitely pick up the phone but whether he pulls the trigger on a deal will remain to be seen.
17. Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson will split minutes evenly.
Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson both play 26 minutes per game. The simple math dictates that they haven’t quite split minutes evenly. The main reason for that is because Coach Casey often has the two forwards sharing time together on the court in small lineup situations. Casey likes this lineup and is almost forced to play this lineup at times without a true rim-protecting, backup big man.
18. Dwayne Casey will finish top 3 in the Coach of the Year award.
If the season ended today the award likely goes to Steve Kerr for the phenomenal job he’s done with the Golden State Warriors, or Coach Budenholzer with the Hawks. Casey probably stands outside of the top 3 when considering the job Jason Kidd has done with the Milwaukee Bucks.
19. DeMar DeRozan will be a serviceable three point shooter.
27.3% on 1.2 attempts per game. This prediction was a miss, sorta like his 3PT shot this season. Luckily DeMar’s improved ballhandling and cerebral approach to the game helps offset his lack of range.
20. Lou Williams will have a bounce back season.
When it comes to 2 for 1's or end of quarter shots — Lou Will wants them all.
Watching Dwayne Casey hand Lou Williams the ball at the end of each quarter or on a 2 for 1 can be grating at times however he’s done this for a reason — Lou Will is back. Never the most efficient shooter Williams makes up for this with tricky fakes and hesitation moves to earn trips to the free throw line (he shoots 85% from there on 5 FTA/game) He’s currently averaging 15 PPG which puts him among league leaders in scoring off of the bench and puts him in the discussion for the sixth man of the year award.
About the Author
Colin Garraway
Colin is a former high school and college basketball player who still actively participates in the Toronto basketball scene. He enjoys discussing anything related to hoops and kicks, particularly sneaker aesthetics, his Raptors and his beloved Los Angeles Lakers.
