The New Era: Heimir Time
From the ‘Land of Fire and Ice’ to the ‘Land of Rain and Riverdance’.
One letter and 1,404 km separate Iceland and Ireland. But an Icelandic footballing hero named Heimir Hallgrímsson will soon become the biggest connection between the two islands, since The Papar rocked up in 874.
The quick backstory on the new Irish bainisteoir -
Heimir Hallgrímsson was born on the 10th of June 1967 on the western island of Vestmannaeyjar, which has a population that could fit inside of Oriel Park. Born into a family of six children, and a father that ran a fishing net repairing company, on an island that was hit by a volcanic eruption when Heimir was six. Which destroyed around half of the towns houses.
The fishing industry of Heimaey was not in Heimir’s future, but education in the nations capital Reykjavik, and a long running football career was. Heimir Hallgrímsson fell into studying dentistry at Reykjavik University. Following his friend into the course, after initially being interested in computer science, but found the whole course to be quite dry and boring.
Which has proven to be a famous decision, as the ‘Icelandic Dentist’ became known as one of, and possibly, the best international footballing coaches/dentist in history — a football title that has a surprising amount of competition. In particular from the Colombian coach Francisco Maturana.
His early playing days were shaped by the three hour boat journey’s and also 60 minute bus rides, back and forth. That pushes the commitment levels needed to make it in Icelandic football. Heimir started his football interest in the 1970’s on a cold winter gravel pitch, and for a more technical session, then the basketball court would do. While other sports were also part of his early sporting life. Heimir made it to the top tier of domestic Icelandic football and played from 1986, and technically lasted until 2007, when he officially hung up the football boots.
Heimir Hallgrímsson has a wife (Iris) and two sons.
200 games in 21 years as a player was often shared with his dentistry practice and also his interest in coaching. Heimir coached every age group from under 6’s and all the way up. He has also successfully managed the Íþróttabandalag Vestmannaeyja (IBV) female and male senior teams.
Hallgrímsson took the IBV men’s team from the 2nd tier and got them into the Top 3 of the Besta deild karla (Iceland 1st tier) in back to back seasons, before becoming the assistant manager to Lars Lagerbäck’s in 2011.
The rise from the 2014 World Cup Playoffs, to co-coaching at EURO 2016, and the 2018 World Cup success as manager, has been told. So I will spare you the whole story of how Icelandic football achieved remarkable success, in a football era that was strongly connected to one Heimir Hallgrímsson. With a fan meetup at a local pub given major credit by the Heimaey native.
Instead, let’s take a look at the tactical setup during his time with the Íslenska karlalandsliðið í knattspyrnu. Along with what might translate over to his difficult new job with the Ireland National Team.
Hallgrímsson has been labelled as a direct coach, and that is true. But his recent job is difficult to judge, as he has described that the conditions of facilities in CONCACAF (unlike in UEFA) force teams to play direct football. So a focus on his Icelandic side is probably a more accurate comparison to the Ireland job. That is why I have narrowed the focus to his Iceland team.
The Comparison Between The Records of Heimir Hallgrímsson and Stephen Kenny In Competitive UEFA Qualification games. 2014 — 2023.
In the 16 competitive Qualifier games. Kenny’s side scored 20 goals and conceded 18 goals. With 7 of the Ireland goals being scored from set pieces, and 6 scored off of corners. Only the 1 goal was conceded from a set piece.
Stephen Kenny’s Qualifier Record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses.
In the 20 competitive Qualifier games, as either Iceland Manager (10) or as Iceland co-Manager (10) Heimir Hallgrímsson’s side have scored 33 goals and have conceded 13 goals. With 9 set piece goals scored as co-manager, and 5 set piece goals as manager. 3 goals were conceded from set pieces.
Heimir Hallgrímsson’s Qualifier Record: 13 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses. (total)
(co-manager) 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses / (manager) 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
Football is an ever changing game though and international football also follows that trend. Context is key, and comparing what Kenny inherited to the work done by Lagerbäck and co, pre EURO 2016, is really not entirely a fair comparison. So a comparison to Martin O'Neill's Ireland is worthwhile.
Statistical comparison between the Iceland NT and the Ireland NT side in the EURO 2016 Qualifiers - (*Ireland played two extra games, in Playoffs)
6 goals scored and 1 assist by Gylfi Sigurdsson in the EURO 2016 Qualifiers, but even those numbers do not do justice to his influence on this team. Prime Gylfi was the link between midfield and attack. While also being able to influence games by individual moments of sensational creative play.
Ireland had a few key players, but only Jon Walters, could really challenge Robbie Brady in terms of influence on this Qualification campaign.
The introduction of Robbie Brady added a quality set piece delivery threat for Ireland in this campaign, and apart from the 11 goals against Gibraltar. Some crucial goals came from the crossing capability of Robbie Brady.
Ireland scored 7 goals by set pieces (4 were penalties. 2 were vs Gibraltar) And they conceded 2 goals against set pieces. Ireland scoring only 2 goals from the 72 corners is a rough stat. Iceland scored 2 goals from 39 corners.
Struggling against smaller nations was a factor for both teams, as Ireland made hard work of Georgia at home, and Iceland likewise vs Kazakhstan and Latvia. Where two draws underwhelmed, but didn't hurt in the end.
Iceland had 6 clean sheets in Group A to Ireland’s 4 clean sheets in Group D. For context, Ireland were in Pot 2 of the draw and Iceland were in Pot 5.
EURO 2016
At EURO 2016, Ireland had the oldest average squad (29.39). While Iceland were middle of the pack, and level for the 15th oldest average squad (27.13).
Iceland starting team had players from these clubs -
Bodø/Glimt, Hammarby, Malmö, Krasnodar, Odense, Charlton Athletic, Cardiff City, Swansea City, Basel, Nantes, Kaiserslautern.
On the bench for Iceland -
Hammarby, Sandefjord, AIK, Göteborg, Augsburg, Sundsvall, AGF, Cesena, Udinese, Molde, Lokeren, and Norrköping.
Squad layout of the 23 man selection -
7 players at Swedish Allsvenskan clubs (League ranked 24th, at that time)
2 players at Norwegian Eliteserien clubs (League ranked 26th)
2 players at Danish Superliga clubs (League ranked 22nd)
1 player in English Premier League (2nd), Bundesliga (3rd), Serie A (4th), Ligue 1 (6th), Russian Premier League (7th), Belgian Pro League (10th), Swiss Super League (11th)
5 players in 2nd tiers across 4 countries, England, Italy, Germany, Norway.
Heimir Hallgrímsson said before the start of 2018 World Cup Qualifiers -
Our (Iceland) players have been clever, sensible, when it comes to selecting a club, The first priority is that they should be in the team, not on the bench at a club that’s too high-profile for them. We don’t have many on the bench.”
Irish players not being clever and sensible around career management is something that has really hurt the Irish managers in 2018 (Martin O’Neill), in 2019 (Mick McCarthy) and also in 2020 (Stephen Kenny) as their squad of players stagnated at club level and then the squad competition dwindled.
Facing that still prevalent issue head on will be a very big challenge and is one that Hallgrímsson didn’t have to take a hands on approach in Iceland.
World Cup 2018
In 2018, this time Ireland were the lower seeded team in Pot 4, compared to Iceland in Pot 2. And both nations had a similar start, an away draw to the team from Pot 3. Followed up by two wins against the lower seeded teams.
Heimir Hallgrímsson’s start as the full time solo Iceland manager was off to a great start. Until they faced top seeds Croatia away in Zagreb, losing 2–0. But they learnt from that and won five of the last six qualification games, including a home win against eventual 2018 World Cup Finalists Croatia.
Away loss to Finland, after a free kick wonder-strike, was the only real sign of a previous weakness. Which was struggling against a low seeded nation.
The best performance in the Iceland’s coaches opinion was the Turkey win away. 3–0, with just the 26% possession and nearly double the shots (16)
“One of our best games (Turkey vs Iceland), we started so high up and didn’t give them any chance to get their game going”.
Ireland had a less glamours ending. With two wins, along with three draws, and with the single loss coming at home against the Group winners Serbia.
Ireland played Iceland in the middle of the Qualification campaign, in a friendly at home. Ireland had 61% possession, but had just 1 shot on target, and managed just 2 shots overall in a 1–0 loss. Conceding from a free kick.
Which Martin O’Neill felt was avoidable -
“We didn’t do well enough, the wall was set up with the players in it and I think we know that we just have to do better.”
Poor set piece errors vs Nordic sides would continue on for O’Neill’s team.
Iceland were in the only group with four teams that reached EURO 2016. That just adds to what a great job finishing first was for this Icelandic side.
The stats between Iceland and Ireland may be similar, but the level of competition was tougher for Iceland. And they then achieved something that Ireland have never done. Qualifying automatically for a tournament.
Before Iceland’s first world cup game Heimir Hallgrímsson turned to the number of foreign journalists at the press conference and said -
“So I skip questions. I’m still a dentist, I should never stop being a dentist and sometimes I still work at the dentist’s office.”
So a lesson for the Irish media. Heimir is over the dentistry references.
The World Cup was a mix of highs and lows for Iceland and it was also the end of the Lagerbäck connection, an era of unfathomable Iceland success.
Iceland are still the smallest nation to have qualified for a FIFA World Cup.
Hallgrímsson left after the World Cup, and Martin O’Neill made the error of staying in the Ireland job. Iceland’s first game back was a 6–0 thrashing in the Nations League against Switzerland. Talk about a World Cup hangover.
Ireland got battered by Wales, and 8 weeks later Martin O’Neill was sacked. The first ever Nations League was a negative experience for both nations.
Heimir timed his exit well.
The Challenge Ahead For Heimir
Hallgrímsson’s predecessor left him a young squad with decent experience, but he also left him with a team that has struggled to win games. There are a number of problems that assist such a problem.
Ireland played 40 games in total under Stephen Kenny. 11 wins, 17 losses. And the NT kept 12 clean sheets. Those 12 clean sheets were against -
Figuring out a stable defensive line will not be straightforward, with the rarity of having strong competition at CB. Ageing Right Backs. And just a complete lack of options at LB. Wing Backs don’t easily solve this problem.
And was stated previously. Irish players questionable career management will impact the manager’s plans. This is a proven and longstanding issue.
The Ireland back line in Kenny’s first game featured. Randolph in goals, Doherty, Duffy, Egan, and Stevens were across the Ireland defensive line. Ten games into Stephen Kenny’s reign, Ireland switched formations and had four changes. Bazunu in goals, and CB’s, Coleman, O’Shea and Clark.
Ireland kept three clean sheets across the opening ten games under Kenny. And kept five clean sheets across the next ten games (playing 3 at the back).
That improvement was short lived though.
Ireland’s switch from 4–3–3/ 4–2–3–1 post 2020, to a 3–5–2/3–4–2–1, did not improve the side, until late 2021. And a flawed midfield eventually affected all of the used formations, in the end. From James McCarthy, Jeff Hendrick and Conor Hourihane getting opened up in Sofia, to Josh Cullen and/or Jayson Molumby and Alan Browne ending 2023 with six qualifier losses.
The solution in midfield is still a question awaiting an answer.
Brady in a midfield three didn’t work and neither did Smallbone as a floating 10. But both showed the desperate attempts to spark some creativity into the Irish midfield. While the decline of Josh Cullen’s performances hurt any minimal solidity that the Irish midfield had shown.
Irish midfield lacks creativity on the ball and the intensity off of the ball. The former is not a new issue.
13 goals were scored from outside of the box, out of the total of 45 goals that the Ireland NT conceded — under the last manager, Stephen Kenny. Something that better organisation should be able to solve for Ireland.
Example of such problems -
The Icelandic manager should also improve Ireland in the unfancied and often the undiscussed parts of football. Throw-ins, both short and long, Free-kicks, and probably the least respected of them all, Goal-kicks.
Irish throw-ins have been painful to watch, and seems to be a problem that spreads across Irish football at international level and at Irish club level.
Example below of a Goal-kick routine in what is Iceland and Hallgrímsson’s finest achievement in football, drawing with a Messi lead Argentina side.
Goalkeeper plays the ball to the Icelandic LCB, and the lack of an Argentine press (from Aguero, Messi, Di Maria and Meza) made this a viable part of the Icelandic tactics. The target was to get the 6'3" LB, Hörður Magnússon up against the 5'7" Argentine RB, Eduardo Salvio, who wasn’t a natural RB.
The extra man and logical physical advantages were all in Iceland’s favour. Could we see Liam Scales, of a similar profile, replicate this for Ireland ?
Iceland also tried a similar routine down the right side with the aim to find the Icelandic CF making a run into the space behind the Argentine defense. Which resulted in one of the handful of chances for Iceland.
But who can replicate Aron Gunnarsson’s throw in ability for Ireland ? It is a question that I think Heimir will find out, and implement into his plans.
Who is the next Megan Campbell ?
Set pieces were key for this Icelandic era of successful football. And there is simply no reason for why Ireland cannot take much needed lessons from it. That could theoretically swing tight margins in this Irish squads favour.
Ireland have lost 15 games by a single goal, since 2020.
The Nations League
This tournament has not been kind to Ireland, and the significance of the newest tournament in European international football has been pointed out by the new Ireland manager. Success (by winning regularly) is crucial for any Irish manager, but the recent run of one competitive win against higher ranked opposition, since beating Wales 1–0 under Martin O’Neill — means that there is more than just coefficient and rankings to play for.
Ireland will have to find ways to upset their ‘stronger’ opponents.
Ireland’s first opponents England fit the role of higher ranked opposition, and their new manager Lee Carsley will likely play with a similar system as Argentina did vs Iceland (4–2–3–1) if the biggest game in the managerial career of Lee Carsley is anything to go by. Which was a 1–0 win against Spain at the U21 Euros Final in Batumi, Georgia. Iceland started in that game in what was a very flexible 4–5–1, that often became a 4–4–2 and even sometimes a 4–3–3. Sigurdsson’s role was key and his positional flexibility is something that a few Irish options can replicate, Szmodics in particular.
Finding solutions to a flawed squad of players is a strength of Heimir’s. Group B2 of League B will challenge that strength, against the likes of England, Finland, and already noted by the new Irish manager, Greece.
Ireland’s record against all three since 2020, 0 wins and 5 losses, says it all. Heimir Hallgrímsson and his Irish staff will be creating their own downfall should they only add to the list of losses against their Group B2 opponents.
Greece have a new coach and some squad turnover. Finland believed they were at the end of a cycle. Instead they have opted to be the only team in the group to have the same manager as last year. Their squad is overall the weakest but the familiarity might be the difference maker for the Finns.
Ireland have depth and options to compete. But error prone games will have to be a thing of the past to achieve the target of competing for 2nd. Not impossible, but pessimism trumps all in Irish football debate.
World Cup seeding will be at play and the games vs Greece and Finland are more relevant in that context. Beating England would be immeasurable for Heimir and this staff though. For Ireland, lots on the line in very little time.
71 days separate the opener in Dublin from the final game in London.
That will set the mood heading into the 2026 World Cup Qualifier Draw. Which will take place towards the end of the year.
The End
It took the FAI 231 days to find Heimir Hallgrímsson. The pressure is now on the Icelander to justify the FAI’s ‘process’. Which brought him to Ireland.
O’Shea by his side will become a story in failure and will be a forgotten afterthought during success. The FAI DoF badly needs it to be the latter. Glowing praise of his ‘Assistant Head-coach’ is missing the irony of why he is not the man in the high paying (€650,000) position. And the power given to the inherited staff won’t be a valid excuse for any early failure or issues.
Heimir will be used to the cold and rain, but all the pressure and scrutiny about his job will be new to the 57 year old. He will likely learn that quickly. Being adaptable is great, and has been an Irish flaw for years, but we will need to see that in action, vs an array of opposition, before commenting.
His positive attitude will have to be matched with a bearable style of play. That finds the balance between opportunism and also pragmatic reality.
Fail at that and the fan criticism might be followed by empty home seats. Something the FAI simply can’t afford.
The sad era of Irish 1–1 “wins” will need to turn into actual Ireland wins. Achieving that will go a long way for him personally, and more importantly for Irish football, it would massively assist the FAI easing their debt issues.
17 months to turn it around. Just 286 days longer than the FAI’s search.
Welcome to Irish football and, Gangi þér vel, Heimir. You will need it.
