Some Quick Thoughts About Sunday’s Debate

Like most of Wisconsin, I elected to watch the Packers-Giants game on Sunday night and am electing to watch the 2nd Presidential Debate today (I know, I’m so much fun at parties). Sixteen quick thoughts:

1) Trump really came off deranged in the first half an hour or so. It peaked when he threatened to jail Sec. Clinton. Which is unprecedented in how toxic a though it is. While it has not been above a handful of presidents to judge their political enemies (Lincoln with the South and FDR with his war), to do it so brazenly in the middle of a nationally televised debate is unconscionable. It’s unsurprising as the convention he ran in Cleveland had people chanting “Lock Her Up” and one speaker calling for her to be shot on the National Lawn. But even just on the political level, threatening her with jail only serves to galvanize the base of “deplorables” who applaud his lack of decorum. It’s not surprising that Trump has espoused empty promises (Make America Great Again), but the empty threats are doubly troubling. It says something about who he is if he demands powers through threats.

2) This Town Hall format is all about how presidential you can look when responding to actual citizens. And Trump’s body language was very troubling. The way he’d loom in the camera frame. Walking around aimlessly. If I cared about him, I’d be worried about him. As a debate format, it’s a little silly however.

3) The moderators were on point tonight. Trump is going to decry them as biased (his 1 on 3 comment) but that’s what a commanding moderator does when someone is capitulating the conversation without answering questions.

4) Trump was gifted a lay-up to just act empathetic to that Muslim woman asking about Islamophobia and how either candidate would remedy the increasingly toxic situation. He instead pivoted to ISIS. Stigmatizing Muslims. It’s poor form to say nothing else.

5) I have great difficulty comprehending Trump’s inane ramblings that he calls “answers.” I flashback to that Billy Madison moderator: “Mr. Madison, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”

6) Trump has really put important concerns in my mind though. Considering his Trump-esque behavior towards women, I’m not sure I’m going to be able to vote for Bill Clinton this year.

7) Trump seems to think since Hillary Clinton didn’t fix all of the country’s problems as a Senator and Secretary of State, that she is unfit to be president. He seems to have a very specious understanding of the relative powers of different positions of government. That’s not shocking, but as someone who is running for president it remains a doozy.

8) The mentions of being interrupted and Clinton going over her time makes Trump comes off as a bit of a child. It’s hardly his worst infraction to date however.

9) I will say Trump hasn’t really imploded in the 2nd debate. His performance remains fairly disastrous though and he needed a perfect performance to put a dent in Clinton’s polling lead. Clinton, as per usual, sounds like she knows what she is talking about. Trump sounds like he wants people to think he knows. Lot’s of volume.

10) Trump’s writing off of Aleppo is pretty callous and heartless I would say. But I would bet a lot of Americans upon a cursory explanation of it would say something similar. Trump never fails to rally his base. His answer was pre-empted by his continued paradoxical praise of dictators like Assad, Hussein and Putin. And him saying he disagreed with Pence is kind of mind-boggling.

11) Trump says Obama’s name like a dirty word. As if what he was really saying was Voldemort or something. As of two days ago, Obama’s approval rating is 55% approval. He’s more popular than ever.

12) Trump mentioned General MacArthur and Patton. As if they are even remotely relevant in today’s world. I’m very curious as to what part of the 80+ years old electorate he’s trying to appeal to.

13) All the Bernie Sanders shout outs from Trump have to be heartening to that group who love Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Assuming they exist. I’m pretty sure they don’t. And if they do, they have to be the worst right?

14) Donald Trump seems to think “inner city” is synonymous with African American. Which is slightly troubling. If again, predictable. Trump does seem to think being black in America is one of the worst things in the world. I’m not sure if that qualifies as empathy, but it certainly fits into his seeming worldview.

15) This debate was a lot more relaxed than the first one. I think Hillary played it mostly safe. Demonstrate the breadth of your experience and knowledge. Let the debate and camera create a clear contrast between her and her opponent. And Trump needed a total victory. I think Hillary won. Easily.

16) That compliment question was cute. Donald Trump saying Hillary Clinton never gives up and is a fighter was unusually sincere. I don’t even think Hillary expected that. Hillary’s compliment to him was relatively oddly framed. Maybe the secret to getting Trump to disappear is to pretend to like him. He does seem desperate.

Anyway, it seemed like a bit of a mess. Donald Trump came out swinging and really demonstrated Bill Clinton’s unfitness for president in 2016. Unfortunately, this is the equivalent of saying FDR can’t be president because he’s dead. At best, it’s irrelevant. Thereafter, Trump talked around issues. He kept characterizing his Access Hollywood comments as “locker room talk.” Which wasn’t convincing but it probably enough for his supporters to ignore (they are good at that after all). Hillary won pretty easily but she was very non-combative with some of Trump’s more outlandish claims.

But Trump needed a big league victory and he failed. Even his big show with the press conference with the accusers of Bill Clinton made him seem way slimier than he was acting before this.

As it stands, Trump’s support has winnowed so much that his ceiling as far as the popular vote goes is likely not enough to win the election. A lot can happen between November 8th and now but at the moment I feel better about the direction of this country.

As a broader point, the evolution of Hillary Clinton’s candidacy will, assuming she wins, be the most poignant storyline. Not even just the first woman president angle. She was historically dominant in the primary race, despite a strong showing from Bernie Sanders and what felt at the time like a contentious candidacy. And then we watched those poll numbers jostle back and forth. To be fair, Pollsters generally have had Hillary ahead the whole time, if occasionally a tenuous lead. But in what has to be the most disastrous two weeks I’ve been a witness to, Trump trails Clinton somewhere from 8 to 14 points. And those polls were done shortly before the debate. Even in spite of a potent if winnowing third party following for Gary Johnson, Clinton has a decent chance of taking a very impressive popular vote differential. And this would rewrite the books of this election if so. No more would Clinton be considered this widely disliked candidate who was comparably weak to her predecessors. She could be the first female president and also beat the Republican candidate by more than ten points. That’s a landslide. That’s a dominant candidate.

A lot can change in a month. I’m biased, so take these observations the way you’d take anything I say. But right now, things look pretty good.

Oh and if it wasn’t obvious, I’m with her.

��