Russian War Inc.
An analysis of Wagner and Russia’s use of PMCs.
The period after the Cold War saw a rise in Private Military Companies (PMCs) in Russia, as you’d expect there was an increase in all types of companies after communism. Although there were many private security companies that began to operate in Russia, the sorts of enhanced corporate security and VIP protection services, PMCs were not and are still not legally recognised.
Although legal loopholes allowed a few companies similar to Western PMCs to operate in the 1990s. This Schrodingers legality means that Kremlin could crack down on the group should it choose to do so. It also creates an accountability vacuum with many atrocities allegedly carried out by the network’s operatives.
Why does Russia use PMCs?
The benefits of using private organizations over governmental ones should be relatively obvious, but if they are not here are some reasons:
- Money — somebody’s making money. ‘nuff said
- Military Emulation — this is a well-known international phenomenon and the US and UK proved in Iraq how useful PMCs have been to their operations.
- Foreign Policy Flexibility — non-attributed grey-space illegal activities can get work done quickly, particularly in those global regions where results are a priority, not ethics.
- No Military Loss — avoiding previous mistakes from Grozny and Afghanistan that turned public opinion rapidly against the government.
- Purpose — using the military for jobs that are not within their designated purpose will yield inferior results. It also frees them up to do more military tasks — like driving the one tank on Victory Day Parade.
In 2008, Minister of Defence Anatolii Serdiukov set in motion radical reforms of the Russian Armed Forces. In part, this could be an emulation of reforms that occurred in many Western countries after the end of the Cold War, but also of Russia rejoining the superpower stage. 2008 was right at the start of Russia’s revanchist re-emergence and the beginning of the Hybrid War theory — Georgia ’08, Crimea and Donbas ’14, Syria ’15 and today again Ukraine.
Wagner
Russian PMCs gained global attention when they participated in conflicts in Syria and Ukraine and the most prominent of all Russian PMC is the Wagner Group, headed by Kremlin-connected businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin. Instead of a single entity, the Wagner Group is more of an umbrella organization for multiple entities, operations, and actors overseen by Prigozhin. During Russia’s war in Ukraine since early 2022, the Wagner Group’s role has increased and, in some areas, overtaken that of the Russian military.
The exact composition of Wagner is not entirely clear, as the company operates secretly and does not disclose its membership or hierarchy. However, it is believed to consist mostly of former Russian military and intelligence personnel. This is not unique or a worry as the US Navy Seals, US Marine Corps and Army at large feed into the private military industry. Most UK PMCs are headed by former military commanders of UK forces, and where else are you going to find the military expertise required? Although Aegis, Triple Canopy and Executive Outcomes were not designated as terrorist groups by the countries they were operating in, and all their allies.
There are of course considerations that active members of the Russian military (including Special Forces) are bolstering Wagner’s frontlines. This plays into the complexity of the recognised/unofficial/grey zone nexus. There have also been reports of Wagner recruiting mercenaries from pro-Russian communities from Belarus, Moldova, and Serbia. I can’t neglect to mention the ex-French Foreign Legion troops, global prisoners and who knows who from who knows where.
So What?
Wagner’s rise has resulted in increased competition from other Russian agencies and political elites. Be they heads of intelligence agencies, political figures, business leaders, military commanders, Chechen, Russian or Ukrainian, Putin’s inner circle will always compete for primary of his attention. This is his reward for autocracy.
Like any tool, it’s the wielder who holds the intent. PMCs are not illicit by nature, but they are often used to do those things that may not be as popular as the government wishes. Wagner is the current vogue PMC because they are the front of Russian operations in Ukraine. It’s a shame too because the name Wagner evokes vivid imagery and co-opts the Ride of the Valkyrie war noise from Apocolypse Now.
In 2016 and 2017, 500 pro-Syrian fighters — who spoke Russian — were pivotal in the efforts to seize Palmyra and Deir Ezzor. Admittedly, between 2014–2022 Wagner was seen as a competent expeditionary force that saw successes in central Africa and Syria, but now the cracks are large and ever-growing. Russia may struggle to fill the empty boots of its own armed forces, let alone bleed its best into the PMCs. It will be interesting to see how Wagner’s reputation tarnishes as the quality of their troops decreases as a result.
Russia’s use of Wagner, regardless of current failures, will embolden other states and their PMCs and it is inevitable that global militaries may become increasingly privatised as the benefits are realised. We are yet to see the next logical step in global multipolarity, which is a surge of Chinese PMCs.
This could change the landscape in areas deemed important to Chinese economic, political and regional security goals — like Afghanistan and central Africa.
