Florida’s Covid-19 Catastrophe
Trustworthy Covid-19 mortality data is difficult to find. There is a better way, called “excess” mortality, computed by comparing a current week’s deaths from all causes to the average deaths from all causes of the corresponding week over the five years preceding 2020. The data for excess mortality is collected by the CDC here.
Go here for an update.
In all the cases I’ve studied, the excess mortality generally follows the reported Covid-19 mortality except that it is almost always greater. There is some discussion as to how closely it is measuring Covid-19 mortality. A research group at Rice University compares the mortality attributed to different causes with a measure of excess deaths from that cause, for example, diabetes. They find more people dying of diabetes in 2020 than the average of the previous five years. They are using this finding to question what excess mortality is measuring. Medical research has well established that a co-morbidity increases the probability of a Covid-19 death. Some proportion of these deaths will carry the co-morbidity on the death certificate rather than Covid-19 but the latter must be considered the contributing cause because without that infection, the person would still be living albeit with the morbidity.
Despite the concern about interpreting excess mortality, we can draw three conclusions about Florida, first, their overall strategy has been a failure; second, Covid-19 mortality is currently exploding with no indication of its leveling off; and third, Florida State is misrepresenting its reported mortality — their reported mortality is dropping even as excess mortality is escalating. The situation in Florida is truly catastrophic. We will see this more clearly in comparison to other States.
The curves are computed using Loess Regression. It is common to use a moving average with a specified interval which assigns a single value over the interval. Loess Regression is a regression over the interval assigning a slope over that interval rather just a single value.
The data are not reliable over the last three or four weeks, so the the last data point for these plots is August 21, 2021.
Here is a comparison with Washington State in the same scale of the mortality:
Not withstanding the issue of the interpretation of excess deaths, Washington State’s Governor Inslee’s mitigation methods, vaccinations, mask-wearing even for the vaccinated, have had far greater success. The failure of Florida’s Governor DeSantis from invoking similar methods has produced a terrible death toll which shows no signs of slackening.
New York was slammed by the disease early in its course, but even New York currently has it currently under control.
No other State is as badly off as Florida. Other States, however, are experiencing a similar crisis, for example, Mississippi, in the same scale,
Mississippi’s current excess mortality is smaller than Florida’s but it nevertheless is accelerating and shows no sign of leveling off. Also, reported mortality seems to be dropping in spite of what seems to be actually happening, thus possible misrepresentation.
From here on, though, the mortality rate on the plot will be scaled down to get a better picture. No one else has mortality figures like Florida, and a smaller scale will provide for a better picture of what is happening in other States.
Here is Washington State in the smaller scale:
Washington State appears to have it under control, though still high, and reported mortality is catching up with the excess. Most of what is happening there, however, is occurring in the Southeast and Spokane Counties bordering Idaho. Newspapers are reporting that Idaho hospitals are overwhelmed and are sending Covid-19 patients to Washington State hospitals. If an Idahoan dies of Covid-19, they may be being added to Washington State’s death toll rather than Idaho’s.
Here is Idaho currently
The accelerating rate is appearing in both the reported and excess mortalities.
Here are three populous States, California, Texas, and New York State in the lowered scale:
New York State has the Covid-19 completely under control. California has it to some degree under control, while Texas is out of control.
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There are three types of States, those that have it under control, those where it is not under control yet, and Florida where it is off the charts. The data also seems to show some misrepresentation of the reported Covid-19 mortality. I don’t know of any other evidence for that but the data shows a current decline in what Florida and possibly Mississippi are reporting for their Covid-19 mortality even while excess mortality is continuing to climb.
Florida’s excess mortality reveals a truly tragic failed approach to the pandemic. Elsewhere I’ve argued that the failure is based on Floridians not wearing masks as they have in Washington State. Their vaccination rate is not really much less than Washington State’s.
Washington State Governor Inslee has mandated the wearing of masks, both vaccinated and unvaccinated, and I am able to attest to the fact that most people, at least in the Seattle area, are adhering to the mandate. I have only anecdotal evidence for Florida but it is supports the contention that Floridians are not wearing masks.
Whether you’re vaccinated or not, the best thing you can do for public health and yourself is to wear a mask and social distance.
