How uncertain are LIGO’s first gravitational wave detections?
Ethan Siegel

LIGO is THUS FAR another OPERA joke and BICEP2 fiasco.

{Note (added on October 3, 2017): LIGO received Nobel physics 2017 today. But there are two points must be pointed out.

One, LIGO failed to detect a KNOWN GW event (see Hubble image of Binary Neutron Star merge of NGC 4993 on August 22, 2017).

Two, LIGO’s new claim GW170814 has a small enough patch for some non-LIGO verifications, but they are not done before this Nobel prize.

That is, all LIGO’s discoveries thus far (on this receiving Nobel physics day) are self-claims, without any verification from and with other astrophysics measurements. End Note}

I made this point (right at medium) one year before the work of Creswell et al, see .

LIGO’s claim is conceptually wrong.

It has two points.

P1: its detection has the astrophysical (not terrestrial) origin.

P2: its interpretation is that that signal is the result of two massive black hole coalescing.

LIGO’s argument for P1 is based on two point.

One, the signals (after subtracted all noise) from each detector has the same (or similar) waveform.

Two, the time lag between the two signals is less than 10 milliseconds.

These two points can at best make the matching signals as a candidate for GW (gravitational wave).

As the two detectors (separated over 3,000 miles) have the similar designs and similar apparatus, they could have similar inherited system noise (ISN). This ISN could be very strong at the turn-on phase (before going to a steady state). If the two detectors are turned on at about the same time, these ISNs can be easily matched within the 10 millisecond time lag. When two similar systems go into steady states, the ISNs will become weaker, but the matching can still happen. With this analysis, it is easy to PREDICT that the STRONG signals should always happen at the turn-on phase.

But, most important of all is that without detecting the 2nd crest of the same event, a matching cannot be confirmed as GW. I made this point very clear one year ago.

LIGO’s claim of P2 is simply not science, as it at best is just a speculation. The P2 claim thus far has identified 9 black holes (6 pre-coalescing, 3 now existing).

Black hole by all means is not invisible, especially when there are INTERACTIONS. Black hole can be indirectly seen with ‘gravitational lensing’, or the behavior of the nearby stars. The interaction can of course be detected with some other signatures, such as gamma-ray burst, neutrinos (from the collision of the ‘event horizon’). But, one year went by, no any sign of those from the following surveillant eyes:

Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope

Fermi Large Area Telescope

Dark Energy Camera, a 570-Megapixel digital camera mounted on a telescope in the Chilean Andes


How can LIGO claim P2 without any 2nd party verification? This is not science.

But most important of all is that LIGO speaks a {twin massive black holes} population density way, way above the current observation (data), and there is no observed ‘PROCESS’ which can produce the LIGO twin black holes. I have made this point very clear again one year ago.


For P1, LIGO very much did not clean all the noises. Without the detection of the 2nd crest of the same event, the LIGO signal is very much a piece trash caught between two detectors. The following graph is a very good description of LIGO’s work thus far.


The followings are the facts about LIGO thus far.

One, it has no proof that its so-called signals are GW signals.

Two, it has no ideal of any astrophysical process which can produce the GW150914 type of twin black holes.

Three, its detectionS speaks a total different cosmologic structure which is in conflict with all the current observable data, especially on the issue of population-density of the LIGO-twin-black holes.

Four, it has no support from any other surveilling eyes and ears.