Fun with numbers! What are we up to at RABA?
Tuesday night’s primary was a clean sweep for Hillary. 24 hours earlier, it looked anything but.
Pundits and prognosticators looked back to Michigan just one week earlier, where Real Clear Politics had given Hillary an aggregate 21.4-point lead, only to see a stunner on election day, when Bernie Sanders edged her out and had the world on edge, wondering if the race was tipping to Bernie.
Missouri seemed like just the sort of place where another upset might occur. Its diverse urban centers, combined with an industrial rural population not voting for someone (formerly) named Drumpf was decidedly up for grabs. This was a state that in August Hillary was leading Bernie by 28 points.
Given the few public polls that had been conducted up until last week, our new polling firm, Red America, Blue America (RABA) Research, believed this would be a good test case for our new mix of auto-dial/mobile polling that combines the collective ideas from our 5 principles that we affectionately refer to as our “RABA Secret Sauce” — *trademark pending. I think.
RABA is a bipartisan polling firm we founded in order to offer a credible, non-partisan set of data that would not be skewed from a right/left branding perspective. We don’t have a horse in the race. We just poll the horses racing.
What did we find?
We were in the field March 9–10, touched base with 670 respondents, and on Friday, March 10, we found Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by 4 points, with a margin of error of 4%. A poll released earlier that day by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch found Hilllary winning by 7 percentage points. A poll three days later by PPP found Bernie Sanders had overtaken her by 1 percentage point.
We sat and waited all day yesterday. Up 7…up 4…down 1 — that was the Hillary trendline. Had we been off in our RABA Secret Sauce modeling?
Last night (well, early this morning) we had our answer: Hillary won Missouri and RABA research was the only firm to get the win right, within the margin of error.
We are excited to keep this going.
If you’re looking for a fast, accurate and affordable poll for a candidate, client, issue, corporation or news org — shoot us a note at firstname.lastname@example.org and we’ll be in touch soon.
And don’t worry — we’ll have ample supply of RABA Secret Sauce.
RABA Research is made up of the following founders (read more at http://www.rabaresearch.com):
Former Communications Director for Republican Iowa Governor Terry Branstad and current owner of Albrecht Public Relations. Tim has worked on local and national campaigns since 2000.
Former Iowa state director for President Barack Obama and Democratic nominee for Iowa Secretary of State in 2014. Anderson has worked on local, national and international campaigns since 1997.
Jon Del Cecato
Partner at AKPD Message & Media. John has worked at the highest levels of Democratic politics for more than two decades.
Former Congressional Chief of Staff with over a decade of experience on Capitol Hill. Davis has worked on local and national campaigns across the country since 1999.
Owner of Redwave Communications, David has more than 30 years of political and public affairs experience serving as a senior consultant to many successful Republican and corporate clients across the country.