Deep Dive: Romelu Lukaku

Following an incredibly productive 2020/21 campaign with Inter Milan and the Belgium national team, Romelu Lukaku’s stock may have never been higher. The 28-year-old has delivered on the promise he showed during his time in the Premier League with Everton and has developed into one of the best players in the world. Lukaku’s once in a generation type physicality combined with a great feel for the game has made him a unique force to be reckoned with.

In what will hopefully be a new series, this deep dive will take a look at his skill set and impact with a focus on three main topics: scoring, creation and defending.

General Overview

First, it’s important to have a quick overview of Lukaku’s statistical impact. The radar below showcases the three aforementioned topics in a statistical sense to gauge his impact in each area. Naturally, as an elite goalscorer, his output in the scoring department is at the upper echelon. In terms of creation, there is a slight drop off but a striker’s ability in creation is strongly linked with his scoring output. There are several reasons for this yet the main one is that elite scorers demand a lot of attention from the opposing players, which opens up space for teammates to have higher quality opportunities in front of goal. This highlights how he can be above most players in categories like expected assists (xA) and open play shot-creating actions. There is still some area for improvement to be made in this department though but it’s a strong showing overall. It’s defensively where there is virtually no impact. Strikers who carry a lot of their team’s offensive load do tend to rest during defensive scenarios and get a pass for not doing a lot of pressing from the front but the lack of any output in those areas is worrisome.

A caveat that has to be mentioned is that data describing defensive events are notoriously less reliable and just provide a decent outline into a player’s output. Not only that, a large part of defensive output can be down to a player’s role in a particular system but more on that later.

Overall, the radar showcases that Lukaku is a near-complete offensive player who is capable of producing high-quality chances that he converts at a great rate. His good aerial presence alongside solid dribbling showcases his versatility in play style - a valuable asset in the modern game.

Antonio Conte deploys a variation of a three at the back formation that includes a forward duo that consists of Lukaku on the right-hand side with either Lautaro Martinez or Alexis Sanchez. The heat map below effectively shows Lukaku’s positioning throughout the season.

Given that he was used on the right, naturally, his positioning will be favoured toward that side but he also manages to get in and around the box frequently, especially in central areas. Now that a general overview has been established, it’s important to look at how Lukaku has generated his output because numbers aren’t created equally.

Scoring

Lukaku has been an excellent goalscorer throughout his career, having been the fifth-youngest player in Premier League history to reach the century mark. Worryingly for the opposition, he’s become even more lethal in this regard, sharpening skills that have looked inconsistent in his younger days to become a more polished player. As mentioned earlier, the 28-year-old’s physical presence is extremely important to how he generates goals for himself and has been an ever-present aspect of his game. Under Conte though, he has become a master at using his strength in many different aspects. It has mostly been used during build-up stages where he likes to hold off defenders to link up with his teammates but he also uses it to create space inside the box.

The example above against Benevento is quite basic in terms of movement but Lukaku’s strength can generate separation between himself and the defender. After a defender commits late to Alexis Sanchez, a square ball to the Belgian is available. Achraf Hakimi plays the ball across the goal and Lukaku pushes his left arm under his oppositions arm to push the defender off balance and create space. This allows the striker to get a good connection with the ball.

This level of physicality combined with good off-ball movement makes it extremely difficult to stop Lukaku from generating high-quality shots. While he makes good runs quite frequently, he sometimes lacks the intensity and technique to find space in the box. This becomes evident when watching his goals back where it’s clear to see that there is rarely a pattern with how he creates high-level chances. This is perhaps a by-product of his physical profile as his strength leverages his ability to create space by a huge amount. Naturally then, Lukaku leans heavily into this to take advantage of this asset. This is demonstrated by the fact that he likes to be ‘handsy’ when he makes off-ball runs using classic techniques.

In the same game against Benevento, Lukaku uses the feint movement to find himself in a better position to score. In the image below, he has both hands on his defender to try and push him away to make a curling run to the far post.

The defender does a great job of not biting on this movement by playing him straight on but since the defender is in a position where he has to react, Lukaku has all the control in this situation. As Lukaku makes the move to the far post, his defender follows him. The striker explodes to the near post when Ashley Young is ready to play the ball into the box, which is enough to create separation with the defender for a good opportunity.

The video below shows the action in real-time. Despite Lukaku not connecting with the pass well, the movement pattern is great and one that most strikers use to find space in the box. Putting his hands against the opposition gives him the runway to make the move to the near post but the key is the stride length. He takes very short steps to make a move to the far post, which allows him to quickly accelerate in the opposite direction with longer strides.

Given that Lukaku is positioned on the right-hand side, one would expect the 28-year-old to predominantly take most of his shots in and around the right channel. However, the shot map below highlights that the Belgian’s shots are concentrated in the central area, which is where higher xG chances come from. Unsurprisingly, most of Lukaku’s goals come from that area.

This is a good thing but an area of improvement for the striker could be looking to add near post finishes to his arsenal. This can be tough for him considering he’s left-footed and plays on the right side but when in this position, Lukaku has a tendency to hit the ball straight into the keeper.

Dribbling with the ball to create a shot for himself is another one of Lukaku’s strengths. Despite standing at 1.91m and weighing around 93kg, the striker has good control for his size and moves really well in transition.

In both goals, similar patterns can be seen. Lukaku has a runway to build up speed and attack the goal with the ball at his feet against defenders who are eager to give Lukaku space. This is because Lukaku is incredibly physical and can push defenders off using a Marshawn Lynch-esque stiff arm. This leaves defenders in a tricky position as the 28-year-old is well equipped to punish his opposition, regardless of their strategy against Lukaku. This pick your poison type of attack is a huge advantage for Lukaku especially given the trifecta of his speed with the ball, off-ball movement in space and Inter’s great counter-attacking ability.

The former United man ended the season with 24 goals in Serie A with an xG of 22.3, While those numbers are great, it’s clear to see in the graph below that he is just a tad behind the world’s best forwards in this category.

A major positive with regards to Lukaku’s goal-scoring is that it’s very sustainable. In the 2020/21 season, he surprisingly slightly underperformed per shot. A value between 0.05 and -0.05 indicates stable shooting numbers whilst being above or below means a player’s finishing is bound to regress or progress to the mean respectively. Therefore, it should be likely that Lukaku replicates a similar output going forward.

Creation

As mentioned in the general overview, creation can have a strong link to scoring for strikers and the numbers indicated Lukaku contributing a good amount in this department. A player of his skillset creates highly due to his hold up play and passing more so than his off-ball movement (which is still good). His ability in creating chances upon review of his game is surprisingly underrated. Most fans of Lukaku recognise his physical gifts and would therefore conclude that his hold up play is great and they would be right in thinking that. However, perhaps due to his controversial first touch, his passing quality has been quietly overlooked.

There are several keys to passing at a high level. The first is being able to play passes in any direction. Given that a striker’s predominant role is to score and not play make, the value of having this in your arsenal is quite low but Lukaku can deliver in small doses in this department. He’s comfortable at playing passes with both feet, which opens the field up for him. The Belgian also thrives in open space since the margin of error is much larger.

This leads nicely onto another important aspect to passing, which is anticipation and vision. Passers need to know how their teammate will be able to receive the pass, with certain players having different preferences with regards to how and where they want the ball. Naturally, we won’t be able to figure out what those preferences are but the great passers in football can play the ball such that their teammates can take the ball in their stride. This is a very undervalued and important trait for all players but being able to anticipate where to pass as a striker can be very impactful since they can often be in the position to make the final pass. Lukaku checks this box well for the most part but he can miss the mark on occasion.

In the sequence above, Lukaku is looking to make the final ball to Alexis Sanchez after a great run. Sanchez is making a curling run to the far post so the optimum passing position is to the front of the Chilean as that’s the direction of Sanchez’s momentum. However, Lukaku plays the ball behind him so Sanchez has to decelerate, take a touch and force a rushed shot. Having taken the touch, two of the Parma defenders can key in on Sanchez and block the effort.

In the same game against Torino, the striker attempted to play a first-time pass to Hakimi who was making the overlapping run. Again, Lukaku plays the ball behind him and the defender intercepts the pass when the striker could’ve taken a touch and angled for an easier pass.

However, the first time pass/flick on is a staple in Lukaku’s passing game given how often he spends his time on the pitch holding off defenders. Therefore, while there are a few mishaps regarding layoffs like in the previous example, the 28-year-old is usually on point with these passes as shown below.

The angle is much better for the pass to come off with Martinez making a third man run and thus being a step ahead of the defender in the process. This gives Lukaku a short window to play the ball in front of his striker partner and in his path so that Martinez cannot miss control the ball and give the defender a chance to recover. The Belgian plays the pass well, and Martinez can win a penalty, which Lukaku ends up dispatching comfortably.

Similar to his quality in vision is Lukaku’s execution and delivery of passes. This is referring to the type of delivery and weight of pass more so than the direction. Footballers naturally under or overhit passes quite often especially in the final third so it’s difficult to critique every single failed pass. In fact, the ability to try these passes are well encouraged, especially the riskier ones. This is a strong suit in Lukaku’s passing game as he often likes to opt for higher risk passes, which would lead to higher quality opportunities when executed correctly. With that being said, below are some examples where the idea and type of pass were well chosen but the weight of pass was lacking.

Like I said earlier, it’s hard to nit-pick these passes and I would argue that these are a positive indicator of his passing quality given that these passes if completed, have high value.

Lukaku’s execution is perhaps at its best when he combines it with his strong hold-up play. The heat map earlier showcased the former Everton man being positioned on the right side, which is naturally very similar to where he receives most of his.

The pass reception map highlights how he likes to play deeper, which helps him be a focal point in Inter’s attack as he can be easily accessible. In these positions is where he usually puts defenders on his back to hold the play up and is where Lukaku likes to play lay-offs. While these passes are much easier to get right, the Belgian has often been criticised for his poor first touch, which would make this task a little tougher.

However, Lukaku has certainly improved with his first touch and has found a compromise around a supposed huge weakness in his game. Of course, there are occasional miscontrols of the ball, which is solidified by the fact he’s in the 52nd percentile amongst forwards in the top five leagues for losing the ball via a miscontrol. This value is certainly not a positive but in the grand scheme, there’s little value lost especially given how he has worked around the issue using layoffs. The example below illustrations this quite well.

The first image shows the pass drilled into Lukaku’s feet. It’s important to notice the striker’s technique in hold-up situations because a lot of bigger strikers tend to use two arms to pin their defender back and play more straight on. The former United man rarely uses this technique, instead leveraging his other-worldly strength with only one arm in the chest of the defender to push him away. Due to this strength and the angle that Lukaku receives the ball in, the defender isn’t able to step in front of him to tackle him.

The second image demonstrates the use of a more classic technique. Since the pass was delivered with a lot of speed, the control was good but forced Lukaku to move into the defender more. Here, the Belgian has a wider stance and crouches to use his hip to push against the defender. He lowers his body position so that the defender can’t gain leverage as his centre of mass is lower, which makes it harder for the defender to push him off balance.

The last image shows Hakimi making a third man run and Lukaku makes a perfectly weighted pass in between the two Parma defenders that the wing-back was able to receive in his stride. This led to a great chance where the Moroccan international had an opportunity to create an assist but his cutback was intercepted by the goalkeeper.

This leads to an important point regarding how valuable Lukaku’s hold-up play is. His hold-up play forces the defender to follow him, which creates space for teammates to occupy via third man runs or any other type of run. It also makes pressing Inter a difficult proposition since the ball to Lukaku is often available. It can be either a long ball bypassing the whole press or quick intricate short passes that help promote off-ball movement. His quality in this area is why Inter’s attacking style is built around him and is, therefore, a big reason as to how Inter became one of the best attacking teams in the 2020/21 season.

Below are some other examples of Lukaku’s hold-up play where the Belgian uses similar techniques.

It’s difficult but not impossible to tell how well a player holds the ball up using underlying numbers. The graph below documents how often a player receives the ball and how well they receive it, with an added variable of how often a player receives progressive passes.

Despite Lukaku’s obvious quality in this area, he’s just above the middle of the pack with regards to pass reception volume and conversion. This is not an indictment of his ability but more so a reflection as to how Inter Milan play. This is further shown by Lukaku’s teammate, Lautaro Martinez, being in a similar position on the graph as him. The fact that the Belgian is among the best at receiving progressive passes (98th percentile against forwards in Europe’s top five leagues) indicates that he’s receiving on the shoulder of the defence, rather than dropping deep and collecting the ball. Dropping deep can help boost players’ numbers in this category, which is how Anthony Martial likes to play.

Another way in which Lukaku can create high-quality opportunities for his teammates is by carrying the ball in transition. His underlying numbers in this department are above average, which I think under sells his ability a tad here due to his team’s reliance on using his hold-up play more often than his transition skillset. This is a fair choice by Conte given that Lukaku’s close control can be slightly loose at times, whether it’s the ball cannoning off him or him just stumbling over the ball. His dribbling percentage is quite high, nearly 59%, but it comes at low volume, thus not a great indicator of his ability to beat players.

Having touched on Lukaku’s ability to create his own chances in transition earlier, the same applies to his creating for others. His speed is a very useful asset and for a player of his size, he’s great at shifting his feet quickly in space and generally moves well in a horizontal direction. Surprisingly, he’s unable to leverage his strength consistently well when running with the ball with defenders being able to simply outmuscle the ex-Chelsea man with just a shoulder barge.

The example above is pretty much a complete move with Lukaku showcasing a little bit of everything. He creates separation between himself and his defender with a great dummy when receiving the ball, which helps start his run from deep. A couple of heavy touches favours him because of his speed and he doesn’t have to engage in a physical battle to keep the ball. As he releases the pass to Sanchez, there are three Parma players keyed in on him, which is what helps create the space for the Chilean to have an easier opportunity on goal.

One thing to mention in this move is the pass. The weight of the pass is fantastic but the dummy to set it up is an attribute that Lukaku could use more often. He has a good passing window to set up Sanchez but he sidesteps very nicely to set up an even better passing window. Manipulation is a great way to turn good opportunities into great ones and dummies/fakes, as well as head movement/no-look passes, are great ways to manipulate the defence to a player’s liking.

So how does his dribbling ability correlate to chances for his teammate? Looking at the graph below, he’s not creating shots at a high level by dribbling.

This is not a surprise since Lukaku has a low volume of dribbles attempted and he leans more heavily to his hold and link-up play. In addition to this, Lukaku is so physically dominant that he rarely draws fouls for a striker, ranking in the 40th percentile against other forwards in Europe’s top five leagues.

Having covered his hold up and dribbling using some data, how does passing come into the bigger picture and ultimately, how well does Lukaku stack up against other forwards with regards to creation?

Looking at another graph above, it’s quite easy to see that the Belgian is up there with the best. His xA of 0.24 is fantastic but is quite a jump from previous seasons therefore a slight drop off in seasons later could be expected. With middling numbers in pass reception and SCA via dribbling, it’s fair to question how Lukaku can be so effective at creating for his teammates. The key is his positioning and receiving a high number of progressive passes, which help the team push closer to the opposition goal. Naturally, he will also be closer to goal and has good enough passing chops to provide a final ball. His good key pass numbers are proof of this.

Defence

The underlying numbers shown in the radar earlier paint Lukaku as an extremely poor defender. I think these numbers do represent Lukaku’s output on the defensive end for the most part but it also doesn’t account for some of the areas that the striker does well defensively.

For example, Lukaku has demonstrated a great feel for the game in scoring and creating and it’s no different in his defensive ability. His positioning with regards to stopping opposition midfielders from receiving the ball is a strong point. This is strongly linked to the tactical set-up of the team as the forward’s role can vary but the Belgian international has a great sense of position.

In this example, Lukaku is very active on defence and trying to cover the pass to the midfielder at all times to prevent Torino to equalise. He’s constantly moving, trying to pressurise the Torino players into playing a long ball. With the opposition having a numerical overload at the back, a defender decides to drive with the ball knowing the pass to a midfielder is covered off well by Inter’s attacking duo. Lukaku does well to follow him in this scenario and forces an important turnover.

This is quite a rare occurrence though as Lukaku often lets defenders drive past him and into the midfield, which is a poor reflection on his engine as he is unwilling to expend energy when his team are defending.

Perhaps the most important task for Lukaku is pressing from the front and here, he can be hit or miss. He has moments of great quality where he combines his great understanding of the game with energy to press really well but his stamina lets him down far too many times for him to be a consistently effective presser. The example below demonstrates a basic but good pressing sequence from Lukaku.

The video above shows Lukaku pressing the Torino defender as soon as the pass is played towards him. His pressing angle is good, as it keeps the midfielder in his cover shadow, preventing passes to him. Therefore, the defender is forced to pass it back to his goalkeeper. Lukaku goes on to press him as well albeit with less intensity but approaches the keeper with a good pressing angle again. The Belgian scans behind him to see where the Torino defender picks up a new position so that he can keep him in his cover shadow. With Inter pressing really well as a collective, Lukaku being slightly late in the press can be atoned for as the goalkeeper is forced to play a long ball, resulting in Torino's turnover.

However, this type of effort is inconsistent with Lukaku. There are games where Lukaku is terrific with his work rate but for the most part, he lets his teammates carry the defensive burden. The difference in defensive output between Lukaku and either strike partner can be clearly seen below.

Sanchez immediately looks to press the centre back when he receives the ball and is then quick to move when the pass is played out wide. The former Arsenal star approaches the defender out wide with a great angle and with all his other teammates occupied by Inter’s players, the Torino player tries a risky pass back to the middle. With Sanchez having the centre-half in his cover shadow, he can stop the pass from getting to its intended target and force another goal kick.

When the goal kick is taken again, Lukaku does well to press the centre-back but when the ball is played to the left, the second effort is lacking. This allows Torino to play out of the back comfortably and they were able to progress into the middle third where they turned the ball over via a foul.

The graph below highlights how poor Lukaku is at pressing in comparison to other forwards in Europe’s top five leagues.

Normally there can be a caveat where a player’s poor pressing numbers could be down to the play style of their team. However, the graph clearly showcases Lukaku’s teammate Martinez being one of the better pressers in Europe. The chart doesn’t include Sanchez, who missed out on the number of games played, who is one of the best in the world at pressing from the front. Therefore, this is more of an individual issue, which Lukaku could look to address to become an even more complete player.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Lukaku is one of the best players in the world whose skill set was undoubtedly maximised by Antonio Conte. His all-around offensive package is extremely rare to find and makes it a nightmare to defend against him. Improvement in passing and hold up play from his days at Manchester United has elevated his game to another level. While his defensive output leaves a lot to be desired, his creating and scoring quality more than makes up for it.

Rumours are quickly circling regarding a potential move back to Premier League giants Chelsea, which is unsurprising given his talent. Ultimately though, it would be a bad move for Chelsea given that spending over £100m on a 28-year-old is unwise regardless of having a war chest. As for the Belgian international, his skill set would fit nicely alongside talents such as Mason Mount, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner who could all work well off Lukaku.

A couple of shout outs for people who helped with the piece:

@maramperninety and @nandy_sd for help on the data visualisation

@mckayjohns for the great tutorials that helped create the data visualisation