Oil Trade Plan: 11 January 2017

Trend change?

No trades today…was way too busy with work.

Yesterday’s plan suggested there’s a good chance the short trend would continue. But oil news and Trump’s speech kinda ruined that plan. Price never made it below the daily open and in fact broke through yesterday’s closing VWAP at 51.65.

So what’s the plan for tomorrow?

Trade Plan

Tomorrow, I’m looking for a confirmation of the trend change. Closing VWAP is at 51.67 and as long as price remains above that level, I’m only really after longs.

A nice entry confirmation would be a cross of the regression indicator through 0.0000 from below, or at least a bounce of that level. Ideal long entries would be between 51.65ish and 52.00.

Any break below the closing VWAP would invalidate this long bias and another stab short would be highly likely. Will have to pay close attention to the 2 points of control (POC) at around 52.05 and 52.40. For a true confirmation of the long bias, a strong sustained break of 52.40 is key.

Should we go below 51.65, I could see price retest today’s open at 50.75 or the point of control around 51.00. And of course the round 50.00 figure might still act a bit as a magnet.

However, for now the bias is long as price is above the the closing VWAP. Just a matter of properly timing entries with the regression indicator as long as that’s the case.

Notes

  1. If you are too distracted with work, girlfriend, family, etc…don’t trade!
  2. Remain flexible enough in your bias to react to trend changes.