Grow Baby, Grow! (ATA’s Freight Forecast to 2017–2028)

The freight sector is going to see revenue growth at a 5.8% annual clip over the next 5 years according to the American Trucking Association’s Freight Forecast. That’s only a hair slower than the 6.2% growth rate for our industry in 2017. Growth in tonnage will hit 2.8% in 2017, but will accelerate and average 3.4% annually over the next 5 years.
Trucking alone is expected to grow 6.4% in 2017 and maintain a strong 5.4% annual growth rate over the next 5 years. Total truck tonnage will rise 3% in 2017 and then keep pace at a 2.7% annual growth rate over the next 5 years.
Looking way out, full-truckload carriers are expected to grow 5% annually over the next 10 years. Less-than-truckload will grow even faster, averaging about 6% in annual revenue growth. LTL will see more e-commerce demand in the coming years (going from 8.9% of total retail today to as much as 25%).
As we might expect, trucking will continue to dominate in market share among the various modes of transportation, controlling more than 78% of the national freight bill over the next 10 years. For comparison, rail intermodal will control 2.4% of revenue share during the same period. Next to trucking, pipeline transportation will hold second place at 10.2% of total market share by 2028.
About Justin Hall

As Chief Customer Officer of YRC Worldwide Inc., Justin Hall has responsibility for designing and deploying technology, logistics and transportation solutions that will improve the customer experience. YRCW companies have one of the largest, most comprehensive less-than-truckload (LTL) networks in North America with local, regional, national and international capabilities. Prior to joining YRCW, Hall was president and visionary of Logistics Planning Services (LPS) in St. Paul, Minnesota, which later merged into GlobalTranz in spring of ’17. Hall graduated from the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota with a B.A. in Entrepreneurship and is Scrum Master Certified (CSM). Since 2015, Hall has been a member of the Children’s Masonic Hospital Business Advisory Board and the board of directors of UST Schulze School of Entrepreneurship.
Justin Hall’s opinions are his own and do not reflect those of YRC Worldwide.
