How to Bet A Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby
Want to win a really big prize betting on the Kentucky Derby?
Your best bet may be a superfecta. It’s tough, but the rewards are potentially great.
To win a superfecta, a punter needs to successfully pick the first, second, third, and fourth horses, in correct order. It’s a tough task in a normal race, where there are often between seven and 10 runners. But it can be very difficult indeed in the Run for the Roses, where up to 20 horses can start.
But in 2009, the year 50–1 shot Mine That Bird won, the return on a $2 bet was $557,006.40.
The returns depend on how strongly favored the horses are that finish in the top four. In 2016, the four most favored runners — Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen — finished in that order, returning a relatively meager $1,084.20 for a $2 bet. But in 2009, the year 50–1 shot Mine That Bird won, the return on a $2 bet was $557,006.40.
Returns like 2009 are very unlikely as 50–1 shots rarely win. But returns can still be good when a well-fancied favorite wins. In 2014, when California Chrome won as the 2.50–1 favorite, the superfecta was $15,383.80 for a $2 bet because the 37.8–1 outsider Commanding Curve finished second. In 2008, when 2.4–1 favorite Big Brown won, the superfecta was $58,737.80.
So what is the best betting strategy?
Well, it depends how you want to spread your options.
One popular bet is to select the four horses you like most, and then place a box bet. This covers all possible permutations — this is a good option as it can be frustrating to select the correct horses but not have them in the correct order. For a $0.10 betting unit, a four horse box superfecta would cost $2.40. If you placed this bet last year, your return would be $54.21.
If you wanted to include five horses in a box superfecta, the cost would be $12; for a six horse box superfecta, it would be $36.
Perhaps the best chance of getting a large return for a modest outlay comes if you really fancy one horse as the likely winner.
Perhaps the best chance of getting a large return for a modest outlay comes if you really fancy one horse as the likely winner. The way to get a big return in the California Chrome or Big Brown examples above would have been to bank on them winning and then include many more horses to finish second, third, or fourth.
Betting this way, if you banked on one horse winning, and then boxed eight other horses to finish second, third, or fourth (this is often called a key superfecta), it would cost $33.60 for a 10c betting unit.
There’s obviously risks here — you can still miss out even if your “banker” wins if any horse you haven’t included finishes second, third, or fourth — but the costs pile up if you want to include more horses. If you covered all possibilities in a 20-horse field based on your “banker” winning, the best costs $581.40 for 10c units, and you may lose money even if your banker wins.
Superfectas are tough. But if you’re up for the challenge, they can be great fun — especially if you win!
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by Alastair Bull
