Patrice Ayme
Jul 22, 2017 · 3 min read

When one looks at climate change, one should not look back, and whine that there was always change, as the deniers do. One should look forward, and ponder how bad it’s going to get, all too soon.

So far we have only seen directly-man-induced global warming: the CO2 percentage went from 280 parts per million up to 410 ppm. That’s an increase of 130ppm. 130/280 = 46%. Moreover, one has to add to this man-made gases which have a greenhouse effect up to 100,000 times greater than CO2. That means their capability to block infrared radiation, and so to confine heat in the lower atmosphere instead of letting it escape to the cosmos, is 10,000 times greater than CO2.

Those greenhouse contributions of NON-CO2 manmade greenhouse gases amount to 25%. So the real CO2 equivalent ppm we have now, is 490 ppm, not 410 ppm.

This is well above the point at which Antarctica loses, or gains, its forests. In other words, the point where most of Antarctica melts. We may not have seen such a high level of greenhouse gases for 25 million years.

It is strongly scientifically suspected that the last time Earth had comparable levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide was about three million years ago, during the mid-Pliocene (then of course there was no CH4 in level comparable to what we see today, as cattle was less abundant, thanks to all too many lions,and no NO2 whatsoever).

Back then, global average temperature was about 3.6–5.2°F (2–3°Centigrade) warmer than it is today. Ocean level was much higher, by about 15–25 meters. So these heat and this sea level rise are now unavoidable. Already.

Back then there were camels in the high Arctic, as far north as one can go without swimming: https://patriceayme.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/camels-in-the-highest-arctic-again-soon/

The global density of carbon dioxide increased rapidly in the past couple of years, thanks in part to a strong El Niño which, lasted around two years (that unusual situation is itself a consequence of the strong planetary warming). El Niño patterns generally shift the location of tropical rains, often leaving tropical forests dry, thus more susceptible to fires — fires that, in turn, release a lot of stored carbon into the atmosphere. But direct human activities — like the burning of fossil fuels for transportation or electricity, or the conversion of forests and grasslands into developed areas or farmland — have also contributed to the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide at a rate never seen before.

Thus we see the real problem: manmade warming, from all these gases, triggers supplementary effects which, by themselves, augment the warming. For example, the more ice and snow melts in the polar and mountainous areas, the more those areas absorb sunlight into the ground, augmenting the melting and warming, year around.

Manmade warming, which has been just a bit more than linear, is in danger of waking up strong exponential warming driven by natural phenomena which human activity would have triggered.

Once those strong natural exponential have been triggered, the warming will be runaway, and out of human hands. The analogy is going in a very dry forest full of deliciously smelling plants waving happily in a very hot wind. If one light a match, it will contribute to the warming, but not that much. Drop the light on the ground, watch the bushes catches fire: at this point natural warming is launched. Soon the fire gets to the crowns of the trees, an unstoppable inferno arises.

The carbon intense countries are playing with fire. There is so much European countries can do: France is down to 5.1 ton of CO2 emission per capita (and much more drastic measures have been taken, such as making carbon burning cars unlawful). The USA, Canada, Australia are above 16 tons per capita, per year. They have to be persuaded to cease and desist. The rest of the world will follow.

Patrice Ayme

    Patrice Ayme

    Written by

    Philosophy. No Holds Barred. No clout left unturned. Extracting possible truth from primal facts, in history and science, rather than from literary gossip.