In those days before the flood…
Is the NHS prepared for the heavy toll of increased flooding?
Recently, climate experts at the University of Newcastle predicted that flooding will increase dramatically across the UK as a result of climate change. The research, published in the Environmental Research Letters journal, shows that at least 85% of UK cities with a river are set to experience more frequent flooding in the coming decades. In the low-impact, ‘best case’ scenario Derry, Chester, Carlisle, Aberdeen and Glasgow are predicted to be among the worst-hit cities in the UK for river flooding. In the high-impact scenario, half of UK cities could see at least a 50% increase on peak river flows. Picture more politicians in clean wellies pointing into the mid-distance.
This may not come as a surprise to many of you. But did you know that flooding is a one of the greatest risks to health from climate change? Indeed, a study by Public Health England and the World Health Organization found that between 2009 and 2011, more than 3.4 million people had been affected by floods in the European region and there had been 1,000 reported deaths due to drowning, physical trauma, heart attacks, electrocution and fire.
Beyond the increase in demand, floods can disrupt critical health infrastructure itself, adding intolerable pressure to already overstretched health services. In 2015, during Storm Desmond, the NHS in Lancashire declared a major incident when doctors and nurses struggled to reach hospitals. In 2014, up to 14% of emergency service stations and 8% of healthcare buildings in England were operating in flood risk zones, meaning that 2,000 hospitals, care homes, and GP surgeries were at risk of river and coastal flooding. By the 2080s, the number of hospitals exposed to significant flooding could double, from 50 hospitals in 2012 to 100 in the 2080s.
While the immediate impacts of floods are concerning, there are also many longer-term health effects that result from displacement, inadequate access to water, delayed recovery, and disruptions to health services. Foremost among them are mental health problems such as anxiety and depression. The mental health impacts of the loss of a home or livelihood can be devastating, and research suggests they also extend beyond just those whose homes are flooded.
After the 2007 summer floods, anxiety and distress were two to five times higher among those who had been affected by flood water in the home. Overall, a recent study on the mental health impacts of flooding, shows that even those who did not have their homes flooded, loss of access to health or social care, work, education or social activities resulted in higher odds of mental health illness a year after the flooding occurred.
At the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change, we have consistently warned that UK health services are not prepared for the impact of climate change. Adequate planning using a wide, multi-sectoral, all-hazards approach to emergency preparedness is critical to minimise the health effects of floods. Successive governments and health leaders will face increasing pressure to deal with the effects and can only overcome the challenge by working together.
Overall, two simultaneous battles must be fought: ensuring greater preparation for the inevitable increase in flooding; and the acceleration of efforts to reduce carbon emissions to limit climate change, itself the cause of flooding. The alternative is a health system wasting precious resources fighting a battle against nature it cannot win. And more politicians in wellies.
Laurie Laybourn-Langton, Director, UK Health Alliance on Climate Change
