The Next Billion Users: Who These People Are and How They’ll Affect the Global Economy

Here’s more or less what these users will look like:

Thanks to initiatives by Google and other companies, the Internet will get around one billion new users in the near future. With a global population of 7 billion, 2.8 billion people use the Internet now, and it will soon be 3.8 billion.

And I think these new guys will break everything. Let me try to explain.

Where do they come from?

The first major question: who are they? They’re the ones who, thanks to cheaper technology and expansion of network coverage, will be able to cross the financial threshold for connection to the Net. Mostly, these people reside in Asia: Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, partly in mainland China.

And now let’s try to understand who they are. I would say that these people very rarely see computers today. Their first experience of the Internet will be on mobile phones, bought at a bargain price thanks to an operator’s promotional campaign. Chances are, they will start with popular messengers to establish links to their social and work groups. Social networks will be too complicated for people who just rose out of poverty, so they will opt for messengers. Messengers have simple interfaces, smooth learning curves, and nothing too complicated. But on the other hand, they have dancing poop, which is really popular among people with poor typing, writing, and foreign-language skills. And they have voice messages, which are frequently used by people who don’t want to type or whose connection quality isn’t high enough for a full-fledged voice over IP call.

When these people understand that they can communicate online, technological barriers will disappear. It’s like in Russia, where pensioners who type with one finger suddenly get the idea of Skype; it will probably be the same there.

Just imagine: at least 900 million not very educated people who know how to farm or perform simple work. And around 100 million skilled professionals whom the Internet has fully reached.

An example: the current labor market in India, with 287 million people who don’t know how to read or write (37% of the world’s illiterate people). And almost all of them are mobile Internet users.

What does Google do?

Makes the connection easier. According to dev.Google, 10% of the world’s users will have 2G by 2020. They place emphasis on content and simple navigation. They reduce energy consumption, because people will work on their mobile phones. They develop cross-device solutions. They create new payment systems, because at least 8% of new users won’t have bank accounts and credit cards. They create resources for localizing everything fast, because only 5.5% will know even a little English.

What will happen next?

People will start looking for jobs. Unemployment is among the main problems in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other Asian countries. People will start selling their services to the places where it can be paid for, as they used to in India. In other words, to more developed countries. And I doubt that it will be traditional freelance services, such as IT support or page makeup. More likely, it will be something like a traditional offline market, such as repair and construction, translation, localization, education, medicine, various mystery shoppers, etc. Something that should be done locally.

The whole service landscape is likely to change. Modern applications and platforms have strong foundations, but an inflow of new people with a desire for simple interfaces could change everything. We will hear about a lot of new things which will suddenly appear out of nowhere (as with the stunning effect Uber or Airbnb had on many).

The Net will once again become lightweight, with minimum content for all these people using it on mobile phones with bad data plans. A megabyte will once again become storage for a lot of information, not just a third of a profile image. According to Opera, new users (people who recently connected to the Internet) install 18 new applications on their phones and use 6 of them almost all the time. That means websites are being replaced. Major segments: connection, payment, health, education.

They will gain access to unbiased information (at least, they will have the opportunity) and will be able to learn faster. Today, the majority of skilled engineers live in China. In a generation, several more countries will have the same level of specialist training.

The most valuable asset in the new economy (there is a term, “Gig Economy,” which refers to an economy beyond traditional work) will be brains. And simple statistics show that these guys will have more brains than Europe.

In general, there are many opportunities and new markets emerging in the world right now. From the outside, these hysterics look a little like the story of dot.coms at the beginning of the century, but there is a rational core. At the moment, we are developing relevant products. A little later, I will be able to talk about the practical side of this issue. Stay tuned!