Why is Colin Kaepernick still a free agent?
Perhaps we should have seen it coming. After opting out of a deal that could have paid him over $16 million in 2017 in order to become a free agent, everyone knew it could take some time to find the right fit for Colin Kaepernick. After all, there were so many other moving pieces in play; when Kaepernick made his decision at the end of February, respected veterans like Tony Romo and Jay Cutler had yet to make their final decisions. Several NFL teams held out hope of finding their long-term starter at the position in the draft, which wouldn’t take place for two more months. After leaving so much money on the table, it was only natural to conclude that Kaepernick — though willing to take a pay cut — would want at least a reasonably similar amount of money for his services. Of course, even his most ardent supporters would admit that his unorthodox combination of strengths and weaknesses would only fit well in a handful of offensive systems. And finally, it was understandable that some teams would shy away from the controversy that would inevitably follow such Kaepernick. So it was understandable that it would take some time to find a place for him to land. But even in the worst case scenario, at some point he would just represent too much value for him to remain unsigned indefinitely…or so we thought.
Only that’s not what happened. Tony Romo and Jay Cutler announced their retirements; Kaepernick’s phone remained silent. The NFL draft came and went without a contract offer, and as the offseason went on, people started to murmur. Then it came time for training camp, and teams started signing quarterbacks to fill out their 90-man rosters. The murmurs grew to a roar. Players who had never started a game in college were being signed basically to throw passes in camp, and yet a proven starting-caliber quarterback with Super Bowl experience couldn’t get an offer? It was no longer a simple matter of finding fit, but something much more complex. And, in some people’s minds, more sinister.
To try to make sense of this ongoing drama, we must consider all of the factors at play here, including his ability as a football player, his salary demands, and (most importantly) his polarizing public perception, which touches upon a highly volatile mix of political and racial tensions. We must address each of these issues separately in order to gain the contextual understanding to speculate on Kaepernick’s unique dual nature as NFL quarterback and social lightning rod.
Let’s start by looking at the market rate for NFL quarterbacks, excluding players on their rookie deals (which is essentially fixed by their draft selection and not truly representative of their market value). Here, we can roughly separate players into different tiers based on their role and ability:
Tier 1: Proven Starters/stars ($20–25 million*)
- Every year, a new deal raises the ceiling on the market value for elite quarterbacks. In 2013, a player like Aaron Rodgers signed for $22 million per year. In 2016 and 2017, deals for Andrew Luck ($24.5 million per year) and Derek Carr ($25 million per year) have significantly increased the market value for franchise-caliber quarterbacks.
- The floor for this category is set by Tom Brady, whose latest extension pays him just $20.5 million per year when the contracts for similarly-aged Carson Palmer and Drew Brees suggest he could easily command at least $24 million per year on a short-term deal.
- In between this ceiling and floor, we have a litany of recognized stars, including but not limited to Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco. Many (though not all — Kirk Cousins and Carson Palmer remain notable exceptions) have won at least one Super Bowl, enhancing their value.
- Based on the increasing value, one would expect a player like Matthew Stafford (a long-time solid starter for Detroit who signed $17 million per year in 2013) would easily command $20 million or more in 2017. Using Philip Rivers and Cam Newton as a comparison based on their similar records of individual excellence and lack of championships, one could expect him to command approximately $21 million, if not slightly more as both players signed contracts in 2015, and the market value has only increased since then.
- It’s worth noting that even though the difference in talent between Rodgers/Brady and Flacco/Rivers is quite considerable, the scarcity and incredibly high demand at the quarterback position means that their salaries do not reflect their true value.
Tier 2: Less proven starters ($15–19 million)
- Ryan Tannehill (4 years, $77 million): Tannehill and Cam Newton both signed extensions in 2015. Newton ($20.76 million) makes slightly more than Tannehill ($19.25 million), which shows the slight difference in perception between the two players.
- Brock Osweiler (4 years, $72 million): after showing both promise and peril as a part-time starter in Denver for an aging, injured Peyton Manning, Houston gave him a contract for $18 million/year with over half that amount guaranteed. This deal, which pays him only slightly less than a proven starter like Rivers, Ryan, Roethlisberger, or Wilson, shows the incredible demand for quarterbacks with even the slightest hint of upside.
- Andy Dalton (6 years, $96 million): Dalton signed a 6-year extension in 2014. Had he signed a similar deal in 2017, he might have earned a couple million more.
- Tyrod Taylor (2 years, $30.5 million): Taylor has shown athleticism and starting-caliber ability at times in Buffalo, but his injuries and inconsistency nearly led to a parting of ways before the sides compromised on a deal averaging approximately $15 million per year.
- Mike Glennon (3 years, $45 million): After seeing very limited action as a backup in Tampa Bay for the past two years, Glennon accepted a deal averaging $15 million per year with Chicago. However, $14 million of the total guaranteed $18.5 million is due in his first year, giving the Bears the opportunity to part ways without significant inconvenience.
Tier 3: “Journeymen” ($17–18 million)
- This category is used to refer to a veteran quarterback with proven competence who is perceived to lack the ability to lead his team to a championship. Alex Smith signed a 4 year, $68-million contract in 2014; at 2017 rates one might expect him to earn a little bit more, comparable to Sam Bradford’s 2-year, $36 million deal. It’s worth noting that the average salaries of “journeymen” are roughly comparable to the salaries of the unproven starters signing their first big contract after their rookie deal, but with less variation (albeit on a small sample size).
Tier 4: Temporary starters ($6–10 million** per year)
- Mike Glennon** — Glennon falls into category 3 based on his projected role as the Chicago Bears traded up to #2 overall to draft their true quarterback of the future in Mitchell Trubisky. However, he signed his contract nearly two months before the draft, and his deal pays him more in line with a Tier 2 player, which is why he is listed there.
- Jay Cutler — signed 1 year, $10 million deal with the Dolphins after Tannehill’s injury
- Brian Hoyer — signed 2 year, $12 million deal with the 49ers, who are still looking for a long-term solution at quarterback
Tier 5: Premium veteran backups ($3–6 million)
- Josh McCown (1 year, $6 million): has started 60 games over a 15-year NFL career. Signed a 1-year deal with the Jets as a backup at age 38, but may end up starting for them given their uncertain quarterback situation, which is why he is at the top of this tier’s pay scale.
- Nick Foles (2 years, $11 million): after a magical partial season with the Eagles, Foles hasn’t developed into a quality starting option, much less the star he looked like in his 2013 Pro Bowl season. Still, he is a former Pro Bowler who is certainly capable of taking the reins when necessary. The Eagles hope that won’t be necessary with Carson Wentz at the helm, but his ability and familiarity with the team earn him a solid $5.5 million per year.
- Matt Schaub (2 years, $9 million): at age 36, Schaub’s best days are behind him. Still, he was at one time the long-term starter for the Texans, and the Falcons value having an experienced backup enough to give him $4.5 million per year.
- Drew Stanton (2 years, $6.5 million): Stanton is who I would consider to be the “floor” of this class. He’s started several games for the Cardinals, and they value having him as an option in light of Palmer’s age and injury history.
Tier 6: Veteran backups ($1.5–3 million)
- Some of these players (Matt Cassel, Derek Anderson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, etc.) have a reasonable history as a starter, but either haven’t panned out or have regressed considerably. Others (Landry Jones) have familiarity with the team that makes them worth slightly above the minimum contract, but not by much.
Tier 7: Vet min guys/warm bodies (>$1.5 million, veteran minimum salary tied to years of experience):
- Examples include Joe Webb, Josh Johnson, Kellen Clemens, Matt McGloin, etc. These players may be signed for training camp and could hope to potentially make a roster as a third-string quarterback, but in most cases teams would prefer to draft a young player in the late rounds who is cheaper and may have some theoretical upside.
So where does Kaepernick fit?
His original deal signed in 2014 was for 6 years and $114 million (average value of $19 million/year), putting him firmly alongside Tannehill in terms of average money. This is likely also a reasonable barometer of how he was perceived — potentially elite talent with significant questions remaining. In 2016, he restructured that deal to in essence turn it into a two-year deal with a player option for the second year worth $16.5 million. Declining that player option made him an unrestricted free agent and bringing us to the current situation; opting into it would have put him just above Tyrod Taylor in terms of salary.
Setting aside the matter of public perception, what kind of contract could Colin Kaepernick expect to sign/what tier would he fall into?
It depends on how teams evaluate him. Or rather, how the highest bidder evaluates him, because it only takes one team to evaluate him as a starter to earn him a contract in the Tier 2–3 range. The Tyrod Taylor comparison seems like a reasonable fit here; both quarterbacks are extremely athletic scramblers who have the ability to make very impressive throws, but lack the consistency on the basic ones.
If not for the ‘extracurricular activities’ this season, there’s no reason to think the 49ers (not expecting to win games in any case) wouldn’t have been willing to give him the same 2 year, $12 million contract they gave Brian Hoyer. Under normal circumstances, his familiarity with the team would make him a natural temporary option while they continued to look for a long-term replacement. Flaws and all, I can’t see a quarterback of his ability with no perceived complications earning less money than Hoyer or Foles.
A deal along the lines of Glennon or Taylor would not be out of the question. A deal along the lines of Hoyer or Foles would be the absolute minimum. A negotiated compromise could put him around Jay Cutler-esque money on a short-term. 2 years and $17–21 million would seem to be a reasonable market estimate, perhaps even a slightly conservative one.
Note: given this market estimate, it’s also worth noting that the unsubstantiated rumors (which Kaepernick’s camp firmly denies) that the quarterback turned down a minimum contract to “play the race card” are a groundless accusation on multiple levels. By the standards of any other industry, Kaepernick would be well within his rights to turn down an offer that pays him a fraction of his clear, demonstrable worth. However, ‘anonymous source’ notwithstanding, there is no evidence that even such a paltry offer was made. Consequently, the apparent conclusion is that these allegations are made by Kaepernick’s political opponents to undermine Kaepernick’s credibility, which brings us to the much more controversial side of his situation.
Colin Kaepernick first gained notoriety when he led the team to the Super Bowl in 2012. Another reasonably strong year in 2013 earned him a lucrative extension in 2014, but team-wide struggles and a regression in his own play led to him falling off the map. Casual NFL fans or people on the street might be excused for not knowing his name until his now-infamous decision to kneel during the pregame national anthems as a form of protest over the perceived injustice suffered by minorities in general and black people in particular in America. In-depth analysis of the issues Kaepernick knelt for are well beyond the scope of this discussion, but being of biracial heritage himself, it is at the very least understandable why Kaepernick would identify with this cause.
Slightly surprisingly, Kaepernick’s simple, purely symbolic gesture met with a vitriolic explosion as thousands rushed to condemn and thousands more rose to defend him. I say “slightly surprisingly” because having interacted with fans both in NFL stadiums, sports bars, and virtually via online forums from the comfort of my couch while the anthem is being played, I can attest that for most the anthem is simply a formality to be endured before the ‘real’ entertainment — the game — can start. Speaking for myself, when the anthem is played I’m usually not taking the time to reflect on the greatness of America, the sacrifices of the military, or any of the things Kaepernick is accused of disrespecting. If I’m in the stadium, I’m standing; if I’m watching on the TV, I’m sitting; either way, I’m simply waiting for it to be over. I would venture to suggest that most of us are the same way.
If, then, the criticism is truly about what Kaepernick is doing — kneeling during the National Anthem — then virtually all of us are complicit in a near-universal neglect of the symbolic reverence due while the anthem is played. In fact, one might go so far as to suggest that Kaepernick — with an intentional gesture that shows the clear thought he has put into the issue — is showing more consideration for the flag than you or I with our apathy.
Consequently, I cannot take seriously the people who suggest that their despise for Kaepernick is purely on account of his lack of patriotism, particularly not when so many actual military veterans are coming to support Kaepernick’s freedom and his stance, including but not limited to this open letter addressing the matter. Instead, I can only conclude that the true issue is about the deep-set cultural insecurity surrounding the issues of racial injustice that many people wish to ignore (the “why” instead of the “what” in Kaepernick’s actions), and Kaepernick has simply served as an unfortunate conduit for a relatively small part of that tension.
Since finding — or rather placing — himself at the center of this polarizing conflict, it’s important to keep in mind that Kaepernick himself has not been responsible for most of the ensuing skirmishes. Instead, much of the escalation has come from well-meaning supporters. It was not Kaepernick himself who called the owners“cowards” for refusing to sign him, but rather an NFL colleague, one who was not even a teammate, in Malcolm Jenkins. It was Kaepernick’s girlfriend, not the quarterback himself, who implicitly compared Ravens owner Steve Bisciott to a slave owner. It’s not Kaepernick on twitter screaming outrage every time another NFL team signs an objectively inferior quarterback while the former 49ers starter remains unsigned. With actions such as this, all of these allies — while supporting Kaepernick’s cause which he cares so much about — are hurting his case to remain an NFL quarterback.
From a business perspective, one can understand the NFL’s reluctance. At best, having a player singled out by the public for reasons that have nothing to do with his play is an enormous distraction; at worst, it can interfere with the coach’s ability to manage his team. The public response to being unashamedly Christian (an eye roll at worst) tends to be very different from being unashamedly black, but from an NFL coach’s perspective, the type of pressure doesn’t matter — having a host of well-intentioned supporters loudly voicing their opinions over every little detail is a problem best avoided, no matter what the reason.
Contrary to what his supporters may believe, this is the likely reason Kaepernick remains unsigned — he’s simply become too hot to handle, and his well-meaning supporters are as much a part of that as his haters. However, the venom and criticism he has received is simply unjustifiable. It is a shame that other people’s irrational fear and hatred has led to a state of affairs that has rendered him unemployable. That’s on us as NFL fans and American citizens, not on the NFL owners or on Colin Kaepernick. Mostly.
