Urgelt
Urgelt
Jul 22, 2017 · 3 min read

So you’re saying Boston should make this trade, as you’ve outlined it, because it will weaken the Cavs by sealing LeBron’s decision to move when his contract is up.

Well, I think you’re misreading the situation rather badly. Here’s why:

  1. Kyrie already let slip that he wants to leave the Cavs. Boston doesn’t have to take him to make that happen; let someone else do the dirty.
  2. LeBron has a history. The way he deals with cap inflexibility is, he leaves. He goes where there is a way to build around him from scratch. He left Cleveland when their cap flexibility was nil, went to Miami where they had total cap flexibility, got Bosh and Wade and a decent bench, and went on a tear. By the time his contract was up, Miami was stuck with cap flexibility woes. Where did he go? Back to Cleveland, where they once again had huge cap flexibility. He built a contender there, inheriting Kyrie and adding Kevin Love and a bunch of very strong role players. Now his contract is ending again, his franchise has no cap flexibility, and he’s ready to depart for a franchise that can build around him the way he wants it built.

In other words, LeBron’s decision is independent of Kyrie’s. LeBron is leaving the Cavs, period. The window on the Cavs’ championship aspirations will close after this coming year.

Boston doesn’t have to lift a finger. The Cavs will self-destruct after this coming season regardless. Boston certainly does not have to make a disadvantageous trade to encourage LeBron to leave the Cavs. He’ll do that all by himself.

The Cavs are still the roadblock in the East this coming season, still in Boston’s way, and they probably will be even if Kyrie leaves — they’ll have cap space to sign one or two very good guards to replace him, and the NBA has a glut of very good guards.

Boston, meanwhile, still has a lot of young talent that needs to mature. 2017–2018 won’t be Boston’s year. But 2018–2019? If LeBron goes West this time, as I suspect he will, Boston will have a clear path to the finals. What will happen in the finals might not be to Boston’s liking, but they should get there.

And by the 2019–2020 season, Golden State will explode, if not earlier. Cap flexibility is going to be a problem for them, too. Talent is going to start spewing out of that franchise. They’ll be lucky to hang onto Green and Curry. Durant and Thompson will be gone by then, and GSW will be in rebuilding mode. The Warriors have a very good front office and coaching staff, and so we can expect them to deliver some good basketball, but for a while, they’ll fall out of contention.

Boston is positioned pretty well to capitalize on those developments. They won’t be if they have to absorb Kyrie’s contract and extend it. They’ll be better off staying with younger, less expensive players and ruthlessly exploiting their draft picks. And if they can manage their cap space carefully, they might even be in a position to recruit Durant, because for damn sure he’s never going to get a max contract from the Warriors. They’d love to give him one. But their cap flexibility is gone.

Grabbing Kyrie now is just about the worst decision Boston could make, on so many levels. The Cavs are going to get out of Boston’s way regardless of what Boston does in trades; and there are bigger prizes down the road than Kyrie, anyway. Next summer’s free agent class will be huge; it’ll make this year’s look like a dry run. Boston is well-advised to plan to participate in that free agent class, rather than lose their cap flexibility to acquire a player who is only a slight upgrade over what they’ve already got on board *and* take a deep hit on the quality of their bench. That would be the death of Boston’s aspirations.

    Urgelt

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