Total Recall: Revisiting Last Year’s Epic Bitcoin Price Predictions
In December 2017, exactly one year ago, bitcoin was worth $19,800, which was the absolute high that no one has seen ever since. Amid the boozy hype, cryptocurrency practitioners and theorists alike promised us a lot of things: $50,000, $100,000, a million dollars for one bitcoin and even to eat off certain parts of their bodies should their predictions fail to materialize. As most predictions covered one-year period, the time has come now to look back and strike the current balance.
We decided to reflect on the forecasts that stars of the crypto world were making for 2018, to recall the gloomy warnings of ardent сrypto haters, and to try to make our mind about what 2019 holds for us.
Disclaimer: No crypto expert was hurt in the process of writing this article. And we also hope nobody gets hurt after the publication. All people named here were and still are important influencers, and we, as always, encourage you to think for yourselves when making important financial decisions.
Forecast Date: Sep 21, 2017
Who: Tone Vays
Price Target: $100,000
One of the first stratospheric predictions was made by Tone Veys. A trader and an influential figure in the crypto industry predicted a long-term growth using technical analysis tools and price correction after cryptocurrencies were banned in China. Veys’ analysis pointed to $100,000 by end-2018, which would have meant Bitcoin’s capitalization in the trillions. And yes, this time technical analysis was wrong.
Forecast Date: Nov 6, 2017
Who: Charlie Lee
Price Target: ?
Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin, was cautious even at a time when prices were going through the roof. When Bitcoin took off from the modest $5,000 to the decent $10,000 in November, Mr. Lee asked all early adopters to be ready for anything. A quote deserves a frame and to be featured as a desktop wallpaper.
Forecast Date: Nov 29, 2017
Who: John McAfee
Price Target: $1 million
The outrageous John McAfee authored the most epic forecast. First, he predicted $500,000 per BTC by the end of 2020; as soon as things took off, he adjusted the target to $1,000,000. Well, there’s still plenty of time until 2020: either bitcoin will skyrocket, or McAfee will have to spill his blood.
Forecast Date: Dec 26, 2017
Who: Julian Hosp
Price Target: $60,000 in 2018
Just as his fellow crypto enthusiasts and startuppers, Julian Hosp, co-founder of TenX, was very excited late last year and even said that bitcoin will be worth $60,000. He, however, secured an escape route for himself adding that the $5,000 target is also likely. As it turned out, neither scenario proved right: it’s $3,500 in December 2018.
Forecast Date: Jan 17, 2018
Who: Kay Van-Petersen
Price Target: $100,000 in 2018
A high profile analyst and global macro strategist at Saxo Bank promised an even higher level — $100,000 by year-end 2020. Kay Van-Petersen remains Saxo Bank’s strategist; bitcoin, however, is way below $100,000 at the time of this writing.
Forecast Date: Apr 13, 2018
Who: Dan Morehead
Price Target: $20,000
Dan Morehead, CEO at Pantera Capital, an investment company and a hedge fund dealing with blockchain projects, regularly publishes the official Blockchain Letter on Medium. In April, when many started suspecting that experts’ predictions fail to come true and something is off, he tried to encourage everybody with the hope of seeing $20,000 by the end of the year. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out.
Forecast Date: Jul 5, 2018
Who: Tom Lee
Price Target: $20,000
Tom Lee, founder of Fundsrat, was not giving up too. In a CNBC interview in July, he promised $25,000 by year end. It would be really nice, Tom, but it also seems to be a miss.
Forecast Date: Jul 1, 2018
Who: Arthur Hayes
Price Target: $20,000
Another interview, and another high hope: Arthur Hayes, BitMEX CEO, expects $50,000 by the end of this year. No luck! Arthur, however, was pretty right about Ether: he called it a shitcoin in BitMEX’ Crypto Trader Digest and opined Ether is going to tumble below the $100 mark. Well, it did indeed. Thanks Arthur!
Forecast Date: Sep 21, 2018
Who: Mike Novogratz
Price Target: $20,000
Former partner at Goldman Sachs Group, Mike Novogratz, was still expecting $40,000 in September, when last year’s forecasts were looking uglier each day. He shared his expectations with CNBC but that’s another miss.
Forecast Date: Dec, 2018
Who: Saxo Bank
Price Target: $1,000
In contrast, one of outrageous predictions from Saxo Bank — an annual collection of unlikely events with a probability of 10% — has come true. Along with predictions that 60 of Fortune 500 companies will be lead by female CEOs and that Tencent will topple Apple in market cap, the bank prophecized: “Investors flee Bitcoin as governments strike back. Bitcoin at $1,000 (-90%).” It sounded utopian a year ago. And now, thank God bitcoin’s still above $1,000.
Forecast Date: Jan 10, 2018
Who: Warren Buffett
Price Target: It’s pretty bad
Warren Buffett never believed in crypto, and it looks now the giant of traditional markets was right. He said he would never have a position in crypto when bitcoin was worth $17,000; he supposedly keeps drinking coke, while bitcoin is at $3,500.
Forecast Date: Sep 12, 2017
Who: Jamie Dimon
Price Target: It’s a pretty bad one too
Head of JPMorgan Chase called cryptocurrencies a scam and tulip bulbs, then apologized in public but again refused to believe. And here you go! Not a tulip bulb yet, but definitely not $20,000.
Let’s summarize: cryptocurrency predictors, en masse, failed to hit it home but representatives of traditional markets were pretty close.
Conclusion: Education, education, and education. An ounce of practice is worth a pound of theory, and fundamental financial knowledge will never go amiss.
What shall we do about it? While the market remains highly volatile and prices fluctuate unpredictably, forecasts are of no help. Even more so, there’s anectodal evidence that making forecasts one year in advance is a useless endeavour. Therefore, let’s make no predictions and drink champaigne instead — unlike bitcoin prices, the holiday season will arrive just as planned 🎄
About the Publisher
United Traders is a community of professional traders and investors. We develop stock market trading applications and share unconventional investment ideas. We are now launching a cryptocurrency exchange.
Our mission is to make ultimate trading and investment technology available to everyone. Our authors are passionate about trading, all things crypto as well as investing and are willing to give to our audience a detailed and unambiguous account of everything we’ve learned.
For more stories like this, join us on
Telegram
Instagram
Twitter
If you enjoyed this post, please give us some claps 👏 and share it to help spread the ideas. Feel free to leave a comment below.
📌 To stay in touch don’t forget to hit the Follow button!
