Can we predict the price of new tokens?
Prediction of price is always kind of magic and mathematics all together. But we still do it every time we are waiting for the item to come on sale, whether it is new clothes, phones, etc. or, what we will talk about today, tokens.
Being accepted to different chats on new blockchain developments and their tokens, the one question was always the same: what will be the price.
To start with I would like to tell you influences the price, if you don't know that. Just two words: supply and demand. One without other they don't new a thing. Supply is a quantity of items on the market. Can we say that if there are few items - they will be extremely expensive? Of course not: you won't buy the only one existing bag with just an air - you don't need it. This is where the demand works!
Demand is the number of people who are ready to buy an item for the specific price. And now we should understand why we mentioned supply first: if there are less items on the market then people, who want them - the price gets bigger until the number of people that are ready to buy the item for the price is equal to the number of items on the market. Let me show you the image:
So, to predict the price of the token you need to know it quantity. But that's clear. Also, you should understand how valuable and perspective is the project it belongs to, and so, how many people are ready to support it. And here where magic comes :)
But there is some way to predict: look back on things you find similar. I’ll take some very simple examples (yes, I like simplicity in my posts, not less than applauses ◉‿◉).
So, my example is an average smartphone. If you know the price of a device on the beginning of its sale, you can predict the price of its new version, or a price of a similar device made by some other company. Am I right?
The same is with tokens.
I’ll take into account recently mentioned in my blog Moonriver/Moonbeam tokens.
Lets start with smth we already know - MOVR (Moonriver). Right now it is approximately 140$ (3.09.21. 2pm UTC). It came to the market with price 80$.
Here is some info from the official website:
As it is mentioned on CoinMarketCap:
"The CMC team has not verified the project’s Market Cap. However, according to the project, its self-reported CS is 1,500,000 MOVR with a self-reported market cap of $212,341,572."
For the last week we can see the following token behaviour: it was $76.94 on its low and
$187.29 on its high.
There is Moonriver sibling - Moonbeam. Its token GLMR(Glimmer) is still not available. But there is some data we know about it.
According to the same CoinMarketCap there will be total 1,600,000 GLMR tokens for sale.
And the same, some data from the official website:
Can we do prediction now or not? Not really: we should study the projects themselves and understand their differences , influences and values. You can do it with the following links:
