College Football Week 1 Report on the Top 2 Games

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#3 Oklahoma Sooners vs #12 Houston Cougars

Game Time: Saturday Sept 3, 12pm EST
 Current Odds: Oklahoma -11, O/U 68

This is a tough opening game for both teams as we know the devastating consequences for a loss in college football. Houston was in potential playoff consideration in 2015, getting out of the gate 10–0 SU before their hiccup at Connecticut. Regardless, the Cougars finished 13–1 SU (9–4 ATS), capped off by a 38–24 victory over Florida State as a +7.5-point underdog in the Peach Bowl.

Oklahoma is coming off a tremendous 11–2 SU season (9–4 ATS) in which they reached the college football playoffs. OU lost to Clemson 37–17 as a -3.5-point favorite in the Orange Bowl. Most bettors sniffed out this -3.5 point spread as suspect and grabbed the points in a Clemson win. Oklahoma made it that far on the strength of a 7–0 SU and 6–1 ATS run to end the regular season.

While this game isn’t at Houston’s field, it’s technically a home game at NRG Stadium in Houston (home of the Texans).

Right now the public is backing the Sooners and laying the -11 points which is a hefty sum to give up on opening weekend on the road. OU is a favorite to win the Big 12, lead by a high powered offense featuring Baker Mayfield at quarterback and one of the best running back tandems in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon.

The Cougars are lead by QB Greg Ward who is one of the best run/pass threats in the game and is the key to the Cougars season.

This is going to be one of the best games to kick off College Football action this season and is must watch as it will have two of the best QB’s in the game going against each other. Both teams lost some key players off their defense from last season. Houston will have to go blow for blow with the Sooners which is a tough feat. Oklahoma has NFL talent on both sides of the ball and since Houston is no longer flying under the radar they should be ready.

The key to this game will be the Cougar’s defense and if they are able to stop the run and put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Get ready for one of the best games on the betsheet this weekend!

#12 Mississippi Rebels vs #4 Florida State Seminoles

Game Time: Monday Sept 5th, 8pm EST

Current Odds: Florida State -4.5, 57

A Monday night contest caps the first full week of college football, with an 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff vs two powerhouse football programs.

FSU played their first season post-Jameis Winston last season and they went 10–3 SU, 8–5 ATS in 2015, including a 38–24 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point chalk in the Peach Bowl.

Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10–3 SU, 8–5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48–20 pounding of Oklahoma State laying -7.5 points in the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss plays in the toughest conference in college football so week in and week out they potentially play a top ranked team. A 10 win season is an impressive result coming out of the SEC.

There are teams that schedule cupcakes as week 1 opponents but that is not the case for these two programs. This game will be played in Orlando so the crowd will certainly tilt in Florida State’s favor.

The Mississippi offense made their living through the air last season, putting up an average of 334.7 YPG passing. The Rebels weren’t too shabby on the ground, either, averaging 183.1 YPG there. Chad Kelly will be behind center once again, following his great 2015 in which he posted 4042 yards with a 31:13 TD:INT ratio.

Florida State had a pretty balanced attack on offense in 2015, averaging 255.8 YPG passing and 168.2 YPG on the ground. Sean Maguire steps in as the №1 QB this season, and he’s coming off 1520 yards and an 11:6 TD:INT ratio last year. Junior Dalvin Cook will once again serve as the lead RB for the Seminoles, and he was effective last season with 1691 yards and a whopping 19 touchdowns on the ground.

The Rebels are 7–1–1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games, and 5–1–1 ATS in their last seven games in September. Ole Miss is also 25–8–1 ATS in their last 34 non-conference games.The Seminoles, they’re 5–1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 2–5 ATS in their last seven games in September. Florida State is also 3–8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

This game is a handicapper’s delight. The public will most likely predict this game incorrectly. For the first month or so, the money was heavy on Florida State, sending the spread to as high as -6.5. Once it hit that that number we started seeing some sharp money on Ole Miss. The number dropped to -3.5 a couple of weeks ago so it’s been bet down 3 points so it will be interesting to see if the books hold at a FG.


Originally published at blog.verifiedcappers.com on August 30, 2016.