Without Kasich and Carson in the mix, those results would have looked much different. Also, some of those states had extensive early voting. Two states had about 25% of people polled in the final polls having already voted and one with 15% early voted. That means late momentum changes after the debate had less impact in those states. Alabama was particularly painful for me because I believe Carson support in that state cost Rubio badly. This is a frustrating election season as we have so many “vanity campaigns” still in the mix.