“Rouge State” at one extreme- the most delinquent of nations.

India/Pakistan peace initiative is a mirage, well intentioned without conviction. Tried many times but failed in wake of more intrusions and deaths. 68 years post its formation, although many Pakistani civilian elites nominally favor democracy, they are uncomfortable with the idea of mass democratic politics. Fundamentalism, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction in possession of a failing state, military dictatorship masquerading behind a pale democratic facade where democracy is still an avocation, more of a civil obligation than a career. To have a real democracy, Pakistan must also have real political parties, not affinity groups of rich and famous. Seems impossible given its feudal culture.

Peek into Pakistan’s future considering many failed peace initiatives it makes you wonder whether failure is the only option? Would Pakistan dissolve slowly or collapse in a sudden cataclysm? Or would it become an outlaw and a threat to its neighbors or entire world, acting as a base for international terrorism and perhaps sharing it’s nuclear weapon technology with other state and terrorist groups? Can Pakistan become a normal state at peace with India and itself?

For most of its history, Pakistan has oscillated between unstable democracy and benign authoritarianism. Opposite to what founders expected, a military bureaucracy governs the state and imposes its own vision of a Pakistan state.

A failing state poses highly visible and grave problems especially for India. It will ensue spread of nuclear weapons, missiles, and Islamic radicalism: a catastrophe, a pariah of South East Asia.

Utopian view of a full-blown democracy, in which armed forces come under firm civil control is impossible until Pakistan’s strategic environment alters in such a way that army retreats from its role of a guardian of the state. Democratic politics in Pakistan is hostage to India-Pakistan relations; normalization with India is necessary but insufficient condition for Pakistan’s democratization. Ironically, such normalization process can not be carried by a civil government alone. Therefore it will be futile to expect any lasting peace agreement without Army involvement at the start. Any peace commitment from Newaj Sherif will not work without army’s acceptance.