FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Vince Vasquez

June 6, 2016 858–642–8495

June 2016 Election: Blue Primary, High Voter Turnout Projected

On the eve of Election Day, the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) took a closer look at the local races and voter dynamics to watch for this election cycle in San Diego County. Using data from the San Diego Registrar of Voters and Political Data Inc., NUSIPR evaluated the early ballots received for the June 7th presidential primary election.

Overall, we found that:

· Early absentee voting leans Democratic. Traditionally, mail ballot returns in San Diego County are dominated by Republican voters; however, as of June 4th, Democratic ballots comprise a plurality of total ballots received (123,887 out of 291,305). NUSIPR projects this Democratic edge to grow by Election Day.

· More than 260,000 ballots will be cast at polling locations on Election Day. This figure does not include the thousands of projected absentee voters that will be manually turning in their completed ballots at polling locations instead of mailing them.

· Overall, more than half (50–53%) of all registered voters countywide will cast a ballot. NUSIPR upholds its earlier prediction that high interest and enthusiasm in the presidential race, combined with local competitive races, will raise turnout on Election Day.

· Interest in the presidential election is driving turnout and generated a historic surge in new voter registration. Since January 1st, 254,355 new registrants were added to the county voter rolls. Statewide, 2.3 million new voters registered this year.

“Early ballot returns reveal San Diego is in the midst of a high-turnout blue primary, which may impact down-ballot local races,” remarked Vince Vasquez, NUSIPR Senior Policy Analyst and author of the election analysis. “Local voter interest and participation have been buoyed by the numerous public presidential campaign events held here in recent weeks, as well as the tightening race between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. As we approach Election Day, it will be critical for local campaigns to devote significant resources to Get-Out-The-Vote efforts to turn out voters and secure votes in a cycle dominated by presidential politics.”

About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a non-partisan, non-profit organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy, and public opinion research so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region’s residents.


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